Worst Value Favourite At The Festival

Plenty of horses seem to be cantering at the top of the hill at Cheltenham and don't get home. If they stopped the Gold Cup at that stage, One Man would have won several. Its possible, even probable than Nick Dundee would have run out a comfortable winner, but imagine he made a bad mistake but didn't come down/get injured. Would he have won in that case? We do tend to ignore that aspect when discussing whether horses who fall would have won or not. A bad mistake can knock the stuffing out of a horse.
 
Galileo, while I respect your ipionion on anything the only words that come to mind when you talk of Cheltenham good things is....

Back In Front
 
Good point Rory, that's a very sensible way of looking it.

Better than saying 'he would have won'.

History proved LLT to be a better horse than we thought then. But, well, it does make you wonder about Nick Dundee.
 
But history also proved given the way Nick Dundee was travelling that he was seriously underated. Certainly not the same horse when he came back from what was potentially a life threatening injury.
 
Looks Like Trouble was travelling very well too, Martin. I watch the race and every time I would pick Nick Dundee at the top of the hil BUT who knows what would have happened when the hill came into play.
 
Galileo, while I respect your ipionion on anything the only words that come to mind when you talk of Cheltenham good things is....

Back In Front
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Take your point (and I took it all on the chin) not sure it is very fair. When I started talking about Back In Front as a value bet etc for the Champion Hurdle I did so when he was 20-16/1 for the race. He ended up joint favourite on the day which ain't bad. While he did not win, he also did not run his race which is pretty obvious based on his placing, the horses who finished in front of him and the general stable form that time last year.

I was the first to mention Our Ben as a staying chaser of some merit long before he ran. I kept faith after Nickname stuffed him and without blowing my own trumpet have picked out a horse months in advance at massive prices who is now (rightly or wrongly) a short priced favourite for the race and looks to have sound prospects. He might finish last...but I have enjoyed the build up to it.
 
Looks Like Trouble was travelling very well too, Martin. I watch the race and every time I would pick Nick Dundee at the top of the hil BUT who knows what would have happened when the hill came into play.
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I dont think that's different from the position that those who think Nick Dundee would have won. I didnt back him that day, because I thought that he was just and old plodder and while he was certain to come up the hill, he mightnt have the tactical pace to win a SAC. From that position, when he fell, he was long odds on. But of course long odds on shots get beaten. What I dont get is why the general impression from reading this forum is that LLT was the likely winner. Nothing can be proven either way, but I'd have had Nick Dundee a 1/2 shot to win from that fence.
 
Galileo, my post was tongue in cheek. You told me he was a good bet when he was 20's. You also said hed go off fav which he did (On Betfair at least.).
 
Getting back on topic-Harbour Pilot 9/4 for the Foxhunters and Studmaster at 3s for the County Hurdle both with Cashmans-ante post rules apply.Anyone taking those 2 prices needs their head examined.
 
Cashmans make half an effort before the start of Feb every year and then behave like small time point to point bookies.
 
At the time the vast majority would have thought that Nick Dundee would have won .

We had no idea of how good a horse LLT was though then and Carberry hadn't moved either

One of those we will never know races . I suspect however that Williamson would have been shocked at how much LLT had left .
 
I think LLT was a much better horse the following year. He was coming off the bridle when it all happened, Nick Dundee was his superior that day IMO.
 
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