X Country

She has decent form in France but most of it is over 2m 5f, ran over 3m 1f last time out and seemed to appreciate it and beaten by a classy chaser who's currently unbeaten (4 from 4) in XC races. She's an interesting contender and Emmanuel Clayeux's horses are going well at the moment - Reveley a decent jockey and there's worse 25's shots.
 
Hasn't Reveley been riding a bit in France recently [could be wrong; probably am]? Would he have suggested the race to the trainer perhaps?
 
He has indeed Moe - normally rides for Macaire over there. Possibly mentioned it to Clayeux but I don't think he rides that much (or at all) for him from what I've seen but likely that EC knows him from his exploits on the Nick Williams horses - he's won a couple of XC races at Compiegne in recent seasons.
 
Shaping up to be a make or break race for me unfortunately.

Stuck a speculative four trebles and a quadruple on Quevega, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly and Arabella Boy in this race. Now the other three have won...

I was sort of hoping it would be treated as an NR, but it seems that unless they reopen the decs it stands. Quite nervous now - it's only a race I normally have a fun bet in but this is serious now.

Any opinions on his chances? Shall I lay it off or be a man about it?
 
I am in almost exactly the same situation as you, Benny. My winners so far in a bet placed yesterday morning are Champagne Fever, Simonsig and Hurricane Fly, and the fourth leg is Arabella Boy.

I had thought that because the last leg is now going to be run on a different day that AB would be treated as a non runner, and I think it unjust that I am locked into a bet on a race to take place two days later under what could be very different conditions. What if the horse doesn't take kindly to being away from home for two extra days, what if the going changes, etc etc?

As things stand I am guaranteed a return of around 600 on the treble and three doubles that have come up so far, but if AB was treated as a non runner the return would be a bit over 2000. On the other hand if AB wins on Thursday I'd win about 5400.

One way of looking at it is that I'm now being forced into a bet on Arabella Boy of 1400 (2000 minus 600) to win a possible 3400 (5400 minus 2000), i.e a bet at odds of slightly under 5/2 on a 9/2 shot.

I suppose the other way to look at it is I now have a free bet on Arabella Boy to win around 4800 (5400 minus 600). At its current odds of 9/2 that equates to a stake of between 1000 and 1100.

What to do...
 
How funny you're in exactly the same boat!

I've not read anything to suggest AB won't handle the extra time away, or the drying ground, and I suppose it's the same for all of them.

I am still a bit peeved that it's not treated as an NR though.

I don't think I can bring myself to put the required funds into betfair and lay it, so having slept on it I think I'll let it stand.

I still think he'll win - let's hope so anyway! Good luck mate!
 
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I've spoken to Bet365 about this and they will let me void the fourth leg of the bet if I decide that's what I want to do. I'm going to sleep on it.

By the way yet another forumite, frontrunner, is in the same situation.
 
Lads this is a mathematical and emotional no brainer. You void the bet and back Arabella Boy tomorrow morning at best price to take out and risk figures you are comfortable with.
 
Personally I would take the £2000 as a NR then do as Slim suggests above, back it again.
I would probably stick £700 on if its 9/2, giving a return if it loses of £1300, £700 more than you have now, or £5150 if it wins (inc the £1300), only just short of the £5400.
As Slim says, no brainer really.
 
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