Xmas Will Win Thread

Desert Orchid said:
In my pre-race summary I'd said this renewal was beyond your normal good Saturday handicap. I planned to go high even before the race because of the sheer quality on offer.

I think what we had was two horses (NSS & LS) with the class to go a strong pace in the ground against others who could do one or other but not both.

Buzz was a Hendo job foiled and I'll probably rate the race around him being a good Saturday winner.

NSS & LS will get upgrades (that might only kick in when they encounter similar conditions), as will BB and Benson for the rides they got.

This race will throw up winners aplenty.
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It's a funny race over the years, always feels like you want to be on the pace albeit I could be misremembering. In your experience how does the form work out for the race? Given it's always run on deep ground.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not So Sleepy and Lightly Squeeze were up with the pace the whole way.
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Morning Spirit
Dashel dasher
Benny's King
Mister Malarkey
Not So Sleepy

All up with the pace, the best place to be in very soft/heavy ground...

In those conditions it's harder to make up ground at the end of a race than pinch early and get into a rhythm!
 
Maxbet said:
Morning Spirit
Dashel dasher
Benny's King
Mister Malarkey
Not So Sleepy

All up with the pace, the best place to be in very soft/heavy ground...

In those conditions it's harder to make up ground at the end of a race than pinch early and get into a rhythm!
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Problem is always the same. If you are on one of the sexier types do you want to blow their brains on that ground early in the race. Time Flies By was too keen and that emptied him, not one to give up on.
 
Maxbet said:
Morning Spirit
Dashel dasher
Benny's King
Mister Malarkey
Not So Sleepy

All up with the pace, the best place to be in very soft/heavy ground...

In those conditions it's harder to make up ground at the end of a race than pinch early and get into a rhythm!
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I agree. I don't like seeing them held up out of their ground when it's heavy. It was one of the reasons I gave Benson a big mark-up from Sandown. I didn't expect him to do the same again today. I thought the worst placed he would be was midfield.

You have to wonder what kind of tiny brain power is employed in tactical planning for some horses ahead of races or by jockeys during them.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I agree. I don't like seeing them held up out of their ground when it's heavy. It was one of the reasons I gave Benson a big mark-up from Sandown. I didn't expect him to do the same again today. I thought the worst placed he would be was midfield.

You have to wonder what kind of tiny brain power is employed in tactical planning for some horses ahead of races or by jockeys during them.
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Aye, you wonder how their minds work. Some years ago when I watched Everton and Brian Labone was centre-half (and for England) you could dribble round him as if he was standing still, but he was unbeatable in the air. Nonetheless, teams came to Goodison raced the ball down the wing, put over a high cross and Labone headed it away. Time after time, because that was the way it was done. No-one thought to keep the ball on the ground and jink past him. Many jockeys have much the same mind-set.
 
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Try going back into the owners after chasing the pace and folding. Not one of the 'fancied' horses chased the pace. I'd be of the opinon the form of the race is worthless and I look forward to taking Benson on next time.
 
Slim said:
Try going back into the owners after chasing the pace and folding. Not one of the 'fancied' horses chased the pace. I'd be of the opinon the form of the race is worthless and I look forward to taking Benson on next time.
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Cards on the table, I'm guilty of not really considering how the pace/race might unfold today but I reckon to suggest that NSS or LS were 'unfancied' (and I note you did use inverted commas for a reason) is wide of the mark. I even considered backing both but felt I was already involved enough in the race.

I have a lot of sympathy with barjon's take. It's something Tom Segal has highlighted more than once before and I will not be in the least surprised if it gets another airing in his Weekender column on Wednesday.

I can see circumstances in which the form of the race might not be pertinent but, for me, that doesn't mean the form is worthless.

For example, the ones that chased the pace and folded can be dismissed from future mega-handicaps on similar ground. They are not up to it.

On the other hand, we now know that Not So Sleepy, winner of this race in similarly deep ground last year, is a serious tool in these circumstances. Lightly Squeeze was a contender in the Betfair when coming down at the last. Much will depend on how the handicapper reacts but if he takes a modest view of the form these horses have not stopped winning.

My opinion of Benson probably couldn't be more the polar opposite of yours. He clearly went close to overcoming a tactically inept ride in the circumstances but that doesn't mean he will win next time. His trainer is a target trainer. I wouldn't be surprised if, following two strong performances in heavy ground, they ease back with the horse for a while. But he will win a big one.

Compare his performance with the similarly 'negatively' ridden Belfast Banter who made his ground seemingly going well only to hit his wall at the last whereas Benson came from further back, started his run later and finished much faster. Benson probably won't go up any more than a pound and is a winner waiting to happen, as and when the trainer decides.
 
To my eye Benson couldnt go the early pace. He then finished the race well but in that ground it was exaggerated by the fact he was running on past horses on empty.
 
Interesting interpretations.

That's what the game is all about: opinions.

I'll be happy to back mine up with money at the right time.
 
Tuesday at Limerick 1.05 Rock On Barney

In excellent chase form recently which included a win over here at Wetherby the last day. Shouldn't be beaten in this, and is ideal material for a double or a short priced treble on Tuesday.
 
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Minella Indo -HdB told me to my face in September that he would be fit for this.The 4.5 on betfair is max bet material.
 
Hope it wins for you but the horse is having it's 3rd run in 3 months. If he's not fit he should hand in his licence.
 
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