York - Day 1

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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Five day entries are out. My initial thoughts are that the International looks a tad weak but that I want to be against Await the Dawn anyway.

The Voltigeur looks mouth watering. Seville/Sea Moon/Namibian/Brown Panther. Hopefully they'll all turn up.
 
With Seville to contend with, maybe more will skip off to Newbury ... or wish they had?

Is Seville the banker of the day?
 
Richard Hughes booked for Sea Moon according to the RP evidently made up with Sir Michael Stoute.
 
I think York will suit Namibian better than Goodwood. Seville isn't the sort of horse you ever want to back at a short price.
 
Seville's form already is on a par with the level required to win a typical Voltigeur, but I can't help but think he's vulnerable. I just think we've very much seen all he can do at a mile and a half and that makes him a little vulnerable. Sea Moon is obvious full of potential and is sure to improve for the trip. Even though I think he's got lots more to come, I can't back him at 7/2.

The Gordon is the race which gives an angle for me. Okay namibian was giving weight and beat Hunter's Light. But at 16's I'll back the latter to reverse the form. He was more patiently ridden in a steadily run race than Namibian and was closing nicely from too far back. It was a sign that Hunter's Light was growing up. He settled much better there than on his 2 previous starts and if he can do the same at York, I think Dettori will be able to be more positive and not have to ride him to stay. At 9/2 or 16's it's a no-brainer for me.
 
Agree with DJ about Hunter's Light, think he's the EW value and some morons will inevitably bet 1/3 Odds, 3 Places in the morning.

However, most unlike me, I think the Seville/Await The Dawn double looks pretty strong tomorrow.
 
Euronymous said:
Even if I don't have a bet the thought of Ballydoyle winning both races is a depressing one.
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Sea Moon is a fascinating contender in the Voltigeur.

Midday starts really to blossom about now and she will be a stern test for Await the Dawn .
 
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I can't see Hunters Light staying 12f - I was surprised they stepped him up in the first place and don't think he'll get the trip. He might run into a place but I would be amazed if he won. He's a 10f horse for me. I wouldn;t be rushing to back them but I think Namibian or Seville will win. Trappy race though.

Seems to be a lot of support for midday so I hope her price contracts as I think await the Dawn will beat her in the International.

I won't be having a bet but i'm most excited about the Acomb!!! Looks a cracker - Chock full of unexposed improvers. The Hamdan horse was really impressive on debut.
 
Would it be insane to fancy Roderic O'Connor to place?

I think he has a chance of beating Twice Over, and would therefore have decent place chances if one of the big 2 misfires.

The Voltigeur is a horrible looking race alright. I think that Namibian is the value of the top 3, but that Al Kazeem may be the bet. I might do a forecast between those two. Seville is too much Monte Carlo or bust for me.

The Acomb looks savage alright. Furner's Green is meant to be good. I love the way East Meets West is bred, and would like to see him develop into a top performer. The Stoute and Haggas yolks look nice, too.
 
Can see the Roderic O'Connor angle, it's just gutting it's not 8 runners although 2 of the 6 literally have no chance of winning the race. I think Midday is far too short as well despite her admirable qualities.

I think the favourite will ever likely bolt up and may even play at 10/11 or Evens (bookies love offering overinflated odds on the morning of big meetings) but ROC a fair bet to follow him home.
 
That is almost my thinking, too.

Strangely (given that I have been against her all year), I think that ROC might have more chance of finishing ahead of the favourite. Midday, for all that I don't think she is top top drawer against top top males, is likely to throw in a very good performance.

There might be a few holes in Await the Dawn that have yet to be exposed. Sure, he could very well skate in, but he is up against 3 proven Group 1 performers. I would require 21/20 to back him.
 
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On The Bridle said:
Await the Dawn is max bet material for me.
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He would be for me too, but only if the ground is Good or faster. The progeny stats for Giants Causeway would put me off a max bet on a slower surface.

Would it be insane to fancy Roderic O'Connor to place?

I think he has a chance of beating Twice Over, and would therefore have decent place chances if one of the big 2 misfires.
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Using the same angle as above, I don't think it's insane, he might be disadvantaged less by slow going than the more fancied contenders. Bet365 are going 13/2 place only.
 
The first race is a dodgy handicap but I'm keen on Swiss Franc. The form of the run at Newmarket where he won in July looks decent with a few coming out and getting placed elsewhere, and the third to Medicean Man (now rated 109) looks good, especially as Swiss Franc is on a comparitvely low mark of 95, (could have something to do with him being so lightly raced for a sprinter). The last run in France was actually not that bad given the first eight finished so close together. A few horses underperformed that day including some English raiders, and to be fair he ran the best out of those horses. 16/1 a bet for me.
 
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Seville lacks a change of gear, but the likely pace and ground will make this attritional anyway, and I doubt he'll have a problem.
 
Maybe so. But the Johnston animal looks a tough customer and I can see him out battling Seville down the long straight - should be an interesting tussle. Like Fiorente in the Gordon we have another ridiculously hyped Stoute animal making the market for us. Tuck in.
 
Amusingly Cecil says he decided that Queally would ride Midday rather than TQ choosing to ride it ....

Can you imagine that happening with Lester, Cauthen , Eddery or even fallon ?
 
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