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Ian_Davies said:
Solid win on the system bet minus giving it all back plus a bit more on the All-Weather equals losing day.
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Groundhog Day - exactly the same outcome today.

I do win on the AW, but my ROI on it is marginally worse than the interest rate on a current account this year - FML.

In better news, details of my 48-hour racing double header are firming up and I'm particularly liking the dining plans after racing.
 
Danny said:
Please tell me its not a late night ram raid on Tescos for Coronation Chicken sandwiches ?
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I can confirm this is not the case.

Furthermore I can exclusively reveal it will be an authentic Pakistani or Indian eaterie visit in an area renowned for quality, quantity and value for money in this department.

The line up will be: YFUSA (obviously), "Leafy," (The Godfather of Cobham, and YFUSA's oldest and most trusted friend), plus "The Man With No Name," who basically runs "The Frozen North" and is YFUSA's "Blood Brother."

Can't wait tbh - while typing this YFUSA just got a notification on his phone that he just bet a winner at Chelmsford City, so the racing evening is ending on a brighter note.
 
So, to mix it up, I won on the AW today and lost with my system bet - FML.

I'm all sorted for tomorrow, but there's about a dozen Saturday races I want to get stuck into tonight, so the forum might actually be spared for an hour or two.
 
Dismal day.

Lost (though small) on the system bet.

Lost on turf.

Lost on the AW.

And to cap it all, I considered betting Haku - as I reckoned it to be on the cusp of being "the wrong price" - and f$%^ing DIDN'T.

Outside of my nearest and dearest, I hate everyone and everything.

It's a good thing I'm going to have it right off tomorrow afternoon with some of the most fiendish bets ever devised.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Dismal day.

It's a good thing I'm going to have it right off tomorrow afternoon with some of the most fiendish bets ever devised.
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It would be something of an understatement to say I had a better day today.

It really didn't cost a lot to flirt with the idea of a Venetia Williams related contingency "Magnificent Seven" but, although the first one went in, that soon bit the dust.

However, I'd been planning a crack at the "Exotics" in the old Hennessy and it worked out perfectly.

I'd considered deserting Panic Attack when the weather forecast turned bad, but the times on the Chase course on Friday encouraged me to chance her stamina and I'm glad I kept the faith.

Pic Roc, who I'd been backing since Bonfire Night at upwards of 40/1, would have been my biggest individual winner, but I was on the mare too at over 20/1 and had something on the other two combo beasts as well, all each-way.

I thought Pic Roc ran a stormer after losing ten lengths at the start, but I got a better exotics pay-out probably as a result of him only finishing fifth as he started shortest of the quartet.

Panic Attack evoked memories of Bachelors Hall and Bright Highway by landing this Big Race Double.

The former went on to win the King George.

I don't get the hate for Skelton on this forum.

For sure, it's 1.01 I wouldn't much like him (nor him me probably) if we met, but I don't need to like people to make money on their horses.

And if he was as dodgy as some who ought to know better claim here, people like me wouldn't be able to do what we do.

Nice relaxing evening, got an interest in the AW, there's a race at Del Mar I want to stay up for and I've got a couple of bets for tomorrow.

What a lovely day.
 
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My system bet was all but forgotten yesterday - I did it and it won a bit but other activities overtook it.

But it bailed me out today, winning three times as much as I lost with my conventional bets, which all did poorly after Calandagan at dawn.

It's been an amazing week - just done my weekly accounts and both profit and ROI are up a notch on the year.

I'm now sat having my supper - pan fried chicken breast cut into slices then put in wraps with melted extra mature cheddar cheese with guacamole, salsa and sour cream dips.

YFUSA knows how to live!
 
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It's been another good solid winning day.

I lost a bit on Corcoran's ride at Plumpton, but the system bet delivered and I had a banging day on the AW at Lingfield Park and Wolverhampton.

Had a look at the Becher Chase, but it clashes with a race at Sandown Park and Excello, who I saw at Windsor last season, is in both, so I'm going to wait.
 
Hi Ian - I’m intrigued by your “system bet”. Is this the one where you use AI as a tool?

I don’t wish to pry too much, as I’m respectful of any punter who keeps back info for themselves, and you do share a great deal of info on here anyway.

Thanks,

Len
 
Another solid winning day with the system bet, which is just as well as I gave nearly all of it back on the AW.

Technically a winning day, but you'd need a microscope to see the profit.

A relaxing evening beckons.
 
Lost on the system bet (though not heavily), lost on the Jumps (ditto), lost on the AW so as bad a losing day as I've had in ages.

A 28 on the machine beast getting beat half a length would have turned it around had it won, but it didn't - narrowly-beaten seconds at prices happen.

Still, things could have been worse - I could have gone to Kempton Park, seen various people I can't stand the sight of, been cold and now facing a boring 40-minute drive home down the M3.

Always take the positives.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Lost on the system bet (though not heavily), lost on the Jumps (ditto), lost on the AW so as bad a losing day as I've had in ages.

A 28 on the machine beast getting beat half a length would have turned it around had it won, but it didn't - narrowly-beaten seconds at prices happen.

Still, things could have been worse - I could have gone to Kempton Park, seen various people I can't stand the sight of, been cold and facing a 40-minute drive home.

Always take the positives.
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Agreed, it's still 0-0 tonight
 
Much better today - the system bet showed a solid profit (and was close to having it off) and it's been a profitable evening on the AW at Chelmsford City.

I've been a busy bunny today, looking a various Saturday (I work 48 hours ahead) races and organising burgling prices.

All sorted now, got a few Friday bets too and looking forward to a cracking weekend.

One other thing - three UK Jumps meetings this afternoon, all seven-race cards, races every half an hour at each and a race every ten minutes.

Took me back and I liked it.
 
Not the best day - won small on the AW, but the system bet and a few others bets lost about eight times as much as I gained on the Tapeta.

Looking forward to tomorrow, I think the ground will be testing everywhere, but especially over hurdles at Sandown Park which shares terrain with the perennially-overwatered Flat course.
 
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Back in the early 1990s, I was something of a perennially plain black t-shirt, black 501s and black trainers-clad existentialist nihilist and I listened to a lot of (then) alternative "industrial" music.

One band I liked was Ministry (in fact the best gig I ever went to was them at Brixton Academy in 1992).

Anyway, today reminded me of a line from their lyrics to "Never Believe" on their album "The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Taste."

And the line is: "I scare myself because I know I'm right."

Go Dante 16/1 Imperial Cup, Lead Story 18/1 Lockinge, Rhoscolyn 40/1 Golden Mile, Irish Cambridgeshire winner whose name I can't even remember 45 machine (I remember that bit), the Irish Cesarewitch winner at twenty-odd to one, Hung Jury 40/1, the three-and-half thousand to one Trifecta (these are just the ones I remember off the top of my head) and now Twig 33/1.

And all while that shower on racing social media think they've cracked a safe open if they can identify an 11/8 winner they think should have been 4/5.

What's that line Merlin (as brilliantly and hilariously portrayed by Nicole Williamson) came out with in Excalibur? "It's easy to love folly in a CHILD."

Anyway, the bad news is I lost on the AW tonight.

But the good news is I won on the system bet and I won eight times as much again on my other bets - Twig et al.

And I still found time to cook a lasagne!

I've just polished off a box of my favourite chocolates to celebrate a quite incredible day.

Really looking forward to Cork, Kelso and Huntingdon tomorrow now.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
Back in the early 1990s, I was something of a perennially plain black t-shirt, black 501s and black trainers-clad existentialist nihilist and I listened to a lot of (then) alternative "industrial" music.

One band I liked was Ministry (in fact the best gig I ever went to was them at Brixton Academy in 1992).

Anyway, today reminded me of a line from their lyrics to "Never Believe" on their album "The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Taste."

And the line is: "I scare myself because I know I'm right."

Go Dante 16/1 Imperial Cup, Lead Story 18/1 Lockinge, Rhoscolyn 40/1 Golden Mile, Irish Cambridgeshire winner whose name I can't even remember 45 machine (I remember that bit), the Irish Cesarewitch winner at twenty-odd to one, Hung Jury 40/1, the three-and-half thousand to one Trifecta (these are just the ones I remember off the top of my head) and now Twig 33/1.

And all while that shower on racing social media think they've cracked a safe open if they can identify an 11/8 winner they think should have been 4/5.

What's that line Merlin (as brilliantly and hilariously portrayed by Nicole Williamson) came out with in Excalibur? "It's easy to love folly in a CHILD."

Anyway, the bad news is I lost on the AW tonight.

But the good news is I won on the system bet and I won eight times as much again on my other bets - Twig et al.

And I still found time to cook a lasagne!

I've just polished off a box of my favourite chocolates to celebrate a quite incredible day.

Really looking forward to Cork, Kelso and Huntingdon tomorrow now.
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I cooked a Chicken Saag this afternoon. Enough for 2 nights. Just polished off a plateful. Mightilly impressed with it !
Looking at the pan now, whilst trying to concentrate on shit tv. Odds aren't looking good. On the remains being there tomorrow evening 🫨
 
Robicheaux said:
I cooked a Chicken Saag this afternoon. Enough for 2 nights. Just polished off a plateful. Mightilly impressed with it !
Looking at the pan now, whilst trying to concentrate on shit tv. Odds aren't looking good. On the remains being there tomorrow evening 🫨
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I'm impressed.

I've been cooking pasta meals since my uni days in 1981, it's easy tbh, but while I'd love to be able to cook authentic Indian and Pakistani curry, I lose the will to live every time anyone tries to talk me through a recipe.

Same deal with Nepalese, Chinese, Thai, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Malaysian, Indonesian etc, all of which I love and used to eat at will when I lived in London.

This Lasagne should last me into next week - I'll be "on it like a car bonnet" all day tomorrow between races!
 
Has the recent glut of winners managed to boost your annual returns to there normal levels or better. I seem to remember you saying overall you were in the region of 2% this year as opposed to 8% the year before. I've always found the game to be fine lines between being succesful and treading water.

As a punter simlar to yourself who plays at long odds and plays plenty of exotics that's what I've found myself down the years. For instance those long priced one's that win by a nose as oppose to getting nutted on the jamstick which i actually thought Twig had in real time yesterday. Or landing the occasional 1-2-3's instead of countless 1-2-4's make all the difference between a good year and a bad one.
 
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Cracking questions, Danny, I appreciate your insightful ongoing interest.

I thought I had got done - or there was at least nothing in it - and I bet Mr Vango immediately after they crossed the line at circa 17 on the machine to mitigate my position as I couldn't see how anyone could be absolutely sure Twig had won.

Anyway, to answer your question - the recent purple patch (beaten a neck for the November Handicap Trifecta and Exacta up, Hung Jury 40/1, the Coral Gold Cup Trifecta, Twig 33/1, modest AW gains - for too much effort, frankly - and a belatedly improved performance of the system bet which was my 2024 mainstay) means my position is improved, but still not at 2024 year end levels.

In 2024, my turnover was X, my profit was Y and my ROI was 10.6%

I do my accounts every Sunday night but right now my guess is when I do them tonight my turnover will be already 44% higher than the 2024 year-end X, my profit will be 83% of the year-end 2024 Y and my ROI will be about 6%, still much lower than last year.

In short, higher turnover, but lower profit - which is annoying.

However, "Leafy," my oldest friend, the older brother I never had (and probably needed), and my Consiglieri - plus a man who has earned the right to say what the f**k he likes to me (because he endured me almost throwing a kebab at his head in 1987!) - always says: "F**k the ROI, are you going to stop doing something that makes money just because the ROI is low, it's the total profit number, how much actual money you're winning, ffs, that counts."

And he's right - if there's no opportunity cost to doing something - because it doesn't stop you doing other things if you like - then why not carry on if it turns a profit?

But nevertheless there's going to be major adjustments in 2026, when I expect to have lower turnover - in 2025 I've put far too much turnover into things that haven't lost, but haven't meaningfully won either.

I've already made those changes, but they don't show up in the figures yet.

I certainly seem to be finishing the year well and this coincides with some changes I've made, so fingers crossed it continues.

But, like all of us, I'm forever in the hands of the market - if the horses my methods throw up stop being value, I'll have to think again.
 
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Thanks for that Ian. I find that a refreshingly honest response and a real reflection of how hard the game can be even for someone who puts in a lot of time and who's all round knowledge of the game would be topped by few.

If you ever get time or are willing to share I'd love to hear your thoughts on staking. I heard you mention in the week that you'd had 20% of your maximum stake on a bet. Is there a minimum set stake you'd ever stop at as anything below isn't worth betting say 5 or 10% or is there a case of you might have even smaller percentage when you are hoovering up crazy exchange prices on real long shots.

I've also seen that you don't mind playing multiples do you do that at different ranges of stakes i.e Ventia Willams 7 runner multiple to buttons where as a few strong ew form fancies in a heavier multiple. And when staking lets say a serious multiple, around how much would that total in terms of a percentage of your maximum single stake ?

I do appreciate that you don't have to reply to any of this but I'm trying at least to find questions that you can answer that generally would be helpful to others without giving any of your edges, or method of selections away.
 
More great questions IMO, and sensitively asked as you appreciate and accept I don't like to give too much away.

I'm lucky - or cunning, or both - to have good advice around me.

I have three people I collaborate with, but by far the most influential is "Leafy," whose other mantra (apart from actual profit being more important than ROI) is that correct staking is absolutely vital.

We operate on a scale from where, being (contrary to rumour) human and wanting to manage our mental health (which betting seriously challenges) we have anything from a "FOMO," (fear of missing out) or a "JIC," (just in case), as another collaborator labels it, to a "max" as Leafy says or, very rarely, what Leafy calls a "double max" - short story about that later.

My biggest bets are singles, I'm historically more inclined to bet win only (as is JIC guy) but Leafy is big on each-way for various reasons.

Nowadays I do a bit of both.

The multiples and exotics are for smaller stakes but to win more - often a lot more.

And as for Venetia Williams - tbh I think she's having a lousy season, but I did have a Patent up with her last year late November, she owes me nothing and it cost buttons to put her runners in multiples to "cop the lot" eight days ago and I did have a little patent on hers yesterday too.

It's a related contingency thing - it costs little and the rewards are huge (and the toll on my mental health avoided if I miss out!) if she turns a corner.

The story (apologies if I've told it before).

Phone rings, it's Leafy, so I pick up.

"You're going to like this," he starts.

He was right - I did, though the full details (it was broadly to do with a trainer making a big effort to organise an event for a long-time loyal owner) I won't go into.

Anyway, we decided it was a max bet and we got on at the opening 10/1.

Started 4/1 and won in cold blood by 15 lengths in a low-grade handicap chase.

Sadly, a few days later I read on the RP website the owner had passed away

Leafy must have read it at exactly the same time because a minute later the phone rang - it was Leafy: "If only we'd known he was dying - it would have been a double max!"

That's Leafy, that's me (because, laughing, I heartily agreed), we are both going to Hell, but we're nicking a few quid along the way.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
More great questions IMO, and sensitively asked as you appreciate and accept I don't like to give too much away.

I'm lucky - or cunning, or both - to have good advice around me.

I have three people I collaborate with, but by far the most influential is "Leafy," whose other mantra (apart from actual profit being more important than ROI) is that correct staking is absolutely vital.

We operate on a scale from where, being (contrary to rumour) human and wanting to manage our mental health (which betting seriously challenges) we have anything from a "FOMO," (fear of missing out) or a "JIC," (just in case), as another collaborator labels it, to a "max" as Leafy says or, very rarely, what Leafy calls a "double max" - short story about that later.

My biggest bets are singles, I'm historically more inclined to bet win only (as is JIC guy) but Leafy is big on each-way for various reasons.

Nowadays I do a bit of both.

The multiples and exotics are for smaller stakes but to win more - often a lot more.

And as for Venetia Williams - tbh I think she's having a lousy season, but I did have a Patent up with her last year late November, she owes me nothing and it cost buttons to put her runners in multiples to "cop the lot" eight days ago and I did have a little patent on hers yesterday too.

It's a related contingency thing - it costs little and the rewards are huge (and the toll on my mental health avoided if I miss out!) if she turns a corner.

The story (apologies if I've told it before).

Phone rings, it's Leafy, so I pick up.

"You're going to like this," he starts.

He was right - I did, though the full details (it was broadly to do with a trainer making a big effort to organise an event for a long-time loyal owner) I won't go into.

Anyway, we decided it was a max bet and we got on at the opening 10/1.

Started 4/1 and won in cold blood by 15 lengths in a low-grade handicap chase.

Sadly, a few days later I read on the RP website the owner had passed away

Leafy must have read it at exactly the same time because a minute later the phone rang - it was Leafy: "If only we'd known he was dying - it would have been a double max!"

That's Leafy, that's me (because, laughing, I heartily agreed), we are both going to Hell, but we're nicking a few quid along the way.
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I'm hoping things get better for Venetia towards the end of this week. The Famous Five is entered up in a class 3 at Bangor on Friday, so I await to see if he's declared there.

Then we have the December Gold Cup on Saturday, where I think Martator could be stonkingly good value, at double figure prices were he to run. Usual terms and conditions apply, E.G seeing what YFUSA thinks about it.

Martator improved a stone and a half last year, and if he can find a bit more improvement I think he could be right on the premises in a race like this.

Anyway, I digress.
 
She's doing RUBBISH and her three yesterday were absolutely DIRE.

As stated, I'll keep combining them in multiples for now because she often suddenly hits form across the board when many least expect it, but she admits herself she's having her worst run during traditionally her best time in years.
 

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