Danny
Journeyman
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- Feb 27, 2013
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The Balmoral Handicap
The first thing that struck me when I looked at this race was how easy it should be to find a solid selection in it as although its a 20 runner handicap at first glance it looked like there were plenty who you'd think have had enough punishment from the handicapper.
Starting from the top then.
Chil the kite,Balty Boys,GM Hopkins and Bronze Angel all absolutely cracking types but surely in terms of actually winning handicaps off there current marks it's asking way too much. They may well run gallant races but they really look up against it.
Belgian Bill only ever won as high as 100 and off 105 here and always best after a break surely he's out.
Rene Mathis will firstly need it softer than its likely to be tomorrow and is another who's been around long enough and needs a career best. Also has a poor record at the track and just to put the final nail in the coffin is stepping up to the mile for the first time on his 29th run.
Master of the world. This may seem to some like a strange one to rule out if you watched the Cambridgeshire. I had a lot of questions to answer after that race but the biggest one I asked was how the hell did this yak finish second. Rogue result ? Absolute form forgery ? A vat of Shergars DNA injected into it a few moments before the off ? Martian intervention ? As long as I live I'll never understand it. If I'd only ever seen him run in that Cambridgeshire I'd think he was a good bet as he'd look to be suited by a drop back in trip and in a race where he won't get much competition for the lead everything would look to be set here for a massive run but that run was just so out of kilter with the rest of his form. His best runs have come at Newmarket (that was by far the best) and they've come over further than 1m. He's been well held off much lower marks over a mile and on that basis I'd have to rule him out.
Spark Slug ! Has ability but also has a tendency to want to give everything a 10 length head start and drawn where there doesn't seem to be much pace will not help. Binned!
Sacrificial. Third at R.A not a bad effort off 93 raised 5lb for that and the won a race back home, raised another 8lb. From the handicaps I've seen in Ireland this year our horses seem to have been at a massive advantage when we've gone over and although he's progressive 13lb higher than when 3rd at R.A does not look appealing especially when he's been beaten at home off this mark since. Hard to see how he wins this.Out!
Farlow has been well held by a few of these off lower marks. 4 or 5 tries at a mile without a win again all from lower marks than this he certainly seems better over 7f and he was mushed by Buckstay and co on his latest outing. Gone!
Ayaar won like a good thing back in the spring first time up. Well held on 4 tries since and fluffed the start latest.Bye.
Professor. Sprinter dicking about at a mile.
That's 12 of 20 gone without even breaking a sweat. In my current form thats probably the first 12 home headed by Master of the friggin world!
I'm not going to go through the remaining 8 or 9 hopefuls (9th being reserve Man of Harlech who'd have a squeak,I'm hoping he doesn't get in or the ones below for that matter) but I'd better just quickly give mentions to Cambridgeshire disappointments Halation and Donncha. Both of these I'm sure are nice types and will win more races as I still believe they have some in hand of there handicap marks. Halation you could argue that his last 2 runs have been over further and dropping back to the mile will suit. His last 2 runs over the mile have really worked out well that being the reason I did my spuds on him at Newmarket. The problem is though his last two runs have been completely lifeless and having been on the go all year round he just looks in need of a good break. At his best when able to come off a strong pace and there doesn't seem much on his side although they could all go down the middle his draw isn't the best place to be if they do. His better form has also been either on All weather tracks or rattling fast ground which tomorrow its not so although its hard to give up on one I think has pounds in hand I think he's best left until next year. Donncha on the other hand I could make a slightly perkier case for. Drawn on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire didn't help and also the 9f might have been stretching stamina a bit far. I also feel that having a break before the race might have taken the edge off him and he might be better for the run. Ran a cracker to be 3rd here over 7f behind Heavens guest and Balty boys (better off with that rival) and that was on ground probably softer than ideal and he's only 1lb higher here. There are certainly worse bets in the race than this fella.
The one who beams out for me though and I rate as a strong fancy is Musaddas 14/1. He is by no means straight forward but its clear to me when looking through his last 3 runs that he certainly has a win in him off his current mark. He's run a blinding race in the Cambridgeshire from the wrong side only beaten by Portage in his group and only just headed in the latter stages by him so the drop back to a mile looks in his favour. He also seemed either at odds with the track or failing that he is just a nutcase. On this occasion he was trying his third type of headgear in as many starts as they refitted the hood.
Prior to this he ran in a visor for the first time at York he got very lit up pulling very hard ruined his chances but that taken into account he still ran a fair race.
More importantly though is the headgear for tomorrow he reverts to cheek pieces which he has worn twice before resulting in a win and a second place. The 2nd place at York is the race that points to me that he has the talent to take this event down tomorrow. The race really needs to be watched to get the full grasp of what I'm saying but he came from a terrible position out the back when it paid to be handy and despite being mucked about down the straight he absolutely flew home to grab 2nd. He's only 1lb higher tomorrow but has Ed Greatrex up who claims 2lb more than what Kevin Stott did at York so effectively he's 1lb better off. The form has worked out alright with the 3rd You're Fired winning since and Birdman (the winner) has run well enough off his higher mark since and taking into account he really had the run of the race against Musaddas. With a little more luck in running, a straight track and some badly handicapped rivals he looks a stunning bet to me at 14/1 with Bet 365 12/1 generally.
The first thing that struck me when I looked at this race was how easy it should be to find a solid selection in it as although its a 20 runner handicap at first glance it looked like there were plenty who you'd think have had enough punishment from the handicapper.
Starting from the top then.
Chil the kite,Balty Boys,GM Hopkins and Bronze Angel all absolutely cracking types but surely in terms of actually winning handicaps off there current marks it's asking way too much. They may well run gallant races but they really look up against it.
Belgian Bill only ever won as high as 100 and off 105 here and always best after a break surely he's out.
Rene Mathis will firstly need it softer than its likely to be tomorrow and is another who's been around long enough and needs a career best. Also has a poor record at the track and just to put the final nail in the coffin is stepping up to the mile for the first time on his 29th run.
Master of the world. This may seem to some like a strange one to rule out if you watched the Cambridgeshire. I had a lot of questions to answer after that race but the biggest one I asked was how the hell did this yak finish second. Rogue result ? Absolute form forgery ? A vat of Shergars DNA injected into it a few moments before the off ? Martian intervention ? As long as I live I'll never understand it. If I'd only ever seen him run in that Cambridgeshire I'd think he was a good bet as he'd look to be suited by a drop back in trip and in a race where he won't get much competition for the lead everything would look to be set here for a massive run but that run was just so out of kilter with the rest of his form. His best runs have come at Newmarket (that was by far the best) and they've come over further than 1m. He's been well held off much lower marks over a mile and on that basis I'd have to rule him out.
Spark Slug ! Has ability but also has a tendency to want to give everything a 10 length head start and drawn where there doesn't seem to be much pace will not help. Binned!
Sacrificial. Third at R.A not a bad effort off 93 raised 5lb for that and the won a race back home, raised another 8lb. From the handicaps I've seen in Ireland this year our horses seem to have been at a massive advantage when we've gone over and although he's progressive 13lb higher than when 3rd at R.A does not look appealing especially when he's been beaten at home off this mark since. Hard to see how he wins this.Out!
Farlow has been well held by a few of these off lower marks. 4 or 5 tries at a mile without a win again all from lower marks than this he certainly seems better over 7f and he was mushed by Buckstay and co on his latest outing. Gone!
Ayaar won like a good thing back in the spring first time up. Well held on 4 tries since and fluffed the start latest.Bye.
Professor. Sprinter dicking about at a mile.
That's 12 of 20 gone without even breaking a sweat. In my current form thats probably the first 12 home headed by Master of the friggin world!
I'm not going to go through the remaining 8 or 9 hopefuls (9th being reserve Man of Harlech who'd have a squeak,I'm hoping he doesn't get in or the ones below for that matter) but I'd better just quickly give mentions to Cambridgeshire disappointments Halation and Donncha. Both of these I'm sure are nice types and will win more races as I still believe they have some in hand of there handicap marks. Halation you could argue that his last 2 runs have been over further and dropping back to the mile will suit. His last 2 runs over the mile have really worked out well that being the reason I did my spuds on him at Newmarket. The problem is though his last two runs have been completely lifeless and having been on the go all year round he just looks in need of a good break. At his best when able to come off a strong pace and there doesn't seem much on his side although they could all go down the middle his draw isn't the best place to be if they do. His better form has also been either on All weather tracks or rattling fast ground which tomorrow its not so although its hard to give up on one I think has pounds in hand I think he's best left until next year. Donncha on the other hand I could make a slightly perkier case for. Drawn on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire didn't help and also the 9f might have been stretching stamina a bit far. I also feel that having a break before the race might have taken the edge off him and he might be better for the run. Ran a cracker to be 3rd here over 7f behind Heavens guest and Balty boys (better off with that rival) and that was on ground probably softer than ideal and he's only 1lb higher here. There are certainly worse bets in the race than this fella.
The one who beams out for me though and I rate as a strong fancy is Musaddas 14/1. He is by no means straight forward but its clear to me when looking through his last 3 runs that he certainly has a win in him off his current mark. He's run a blinding race in the Cambridgeshire from the wrong side only beaten by Portage in his group and only just headed in the latter stages by him so the drop back to a mile looks in his favour. He also seemed either at odds with the track or failing that he is just a nutcase. On this occasion he was trying his third type of headgear in as many starts as they refitted the hood.
Prior to this he ran in a visor for the first time at York he got very lit up pulling very hard ruined his chances but that taken into account he still ran a fair race.
More importantly though is the headgear for tomorrow he reverts to cheek pieces which he has worn twice before resulting in a win and a second place. The 2nd place at York is the race that points to me that he has the talent to take this event down tomorrow. The race really needs to be watched to get the full grasp of what I'm saying but he came from a terrible position out the back when it paid to be handy and despite being mucked about down the straight he absolutely flew home to grab 2nd. He's only 1lb higher tomorrow but has Ed Greatrex up who claims 2lb more than what Kevin Stott did at York so effectively he's 1lb better off. The form has worked out alright with the 3rd You're Fired winning since and Birdman (the winner) has run well enough off his higher mark since and taking into account he really had the run of the race against Musaddas. With a little more luck in running, a straight track and some badly handicapped rivals he looks a stunning bet to me at 14/1 with Bet 365 12/1 generally.
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Good luck with yours.
