Champions Day

He's a ridiculous price given he's a 12f horse running over 10f with a short straight. And he's wearing cursed silks at Group 1 level.

I've added Found to my big Vadamos position.
 
Gleneagles hasn't seen a racecourse since June which is a negative as is the going

Solow hasn't been out since July but that could be a positive as he looked slightly jaded despite winning last time out

The rest looks planned and may just be long enough to sweeten him up for this.

Unlike Gleneagle he'll be happy on the ground no matter what.

I doubt if it matters if Gleneagles runs or not and Solow should come out on top either way.
 
O.k feel free to eject me from the premises for being a stark bonkers raving lunatic but I thought I'd share one of my more outside the box theories and see how it goes.

In the champion stakes today I have no argument that Jack Hobbs is a fairly solid Favourite I also have no argument with Found being fairly rock solid and at the prices I'd favour her of the pair other than that though I'm looking at this field and thinking its not really up to that much.

Earlier on in the season Air pilot caught my eye at Chester. I'm not a figures expert but from what I have this was the best performance he's produced. He was narrowly beaten into third by todays pace maker Maverick Wave and Stoute's Cannock Chase. The thing that struck me about it though was that Air pilot seemed completely at odds with running around the roudee and yet producing his best run in the process first time up as well. I marked him up as one to follow as he looks much improved from previous seasons but unfortunately he's been harder to find than the lesser spotted Gleneagles. He turned up for a 3 runner Grp3 in Ireland which he won but in truth it was a pretty meaningless race. He then disappeared again but resurfaced after a couple of months off in the Prix Dollar and finished a close up third I haven't looked at the race too closely in truth and it doesn't really matter in the context of what he faces today but that's a decent performance in a Grp2 off the back of a break especially as the ground was faster than ideal. If I'm right about that performance at the beginning of the year then I think he's up to running a big race today under conditions that are ideal and hoping that he'll have come on for that run in the Dollar. Whilst I wouldn't be brave/stupid enough to suggest he could get the better of Jack hobbs or Found I think he is certainly capable of mixing it with the rest of the bunch. The problem of how to play this is a different matter though. I wouldn't be keen on backing him e/w as I don't think there is any value in the win bet as I certainly don't think he's capable of that. Perhaps a Place bet only in a 4 places market if you can find one or the 40/1 with Ladbrokes e/w W/O Jack Hobbs might be a fair enough play but even then we're relying on Found to run a stinker to have any chance of picking up the win.

Overall its a tough one and I probably won't back the opinion but I'd be really pleased to see him run a big race and finish 4th or 5th just for prides sake of having judged him correctly.
 
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Apart from Apache Gold at Cork, Agent Murphy, Twilight Son, Candarliya and Found will be running for me at Ascot today, along with Arabian Queen and Elm Park in an each way double.
 
Thanks Col

Danny said:
O.k feel free to eject me from the premises for being a stark bonkers raving lunatic but I thought I'd share one of my more outside the box theories and see how it goes.

In the champion stakes today I have no argument that Jack Hobbs is a fairly solid Favourite I also have no argument with Found being fairly rock solid and at the prices I'd favour her of the pair other than that though I'm looking at this field and thinking its not really up to that much.

Earlier on in the season Air pilot caught my eye at Chester. I'm not a figures expert but from what I have this was the best performance he's produced. He was narrowly beaten into third by todays pace maker Maverick Wave and Stoute's Cannock Chase. The thing that struck me about it though was that Air pilot seemed completely at odds with running around the roudee and yet producing his best run in the process first time up as well. I marked him up as one to follow as he looks much improved from previous seasons but unfortunately he's been harder to find than the lesser spotted Gleneagles. He turned up for a 3 runner Grp3 in Ireland which he won but in truth it was a pretty meaningless race. He then disappeared again but resurfaced after a couple of months off in the Prix Dollar and finished a close up third I haven't looked at the race too closely in truth and it doesn't really matter in the context of what he faces today but that's a decent performance in a Grp2 off the back of a break especially as the ground was faster than ideal. If I'm right about that performance at the beginning of the year then I think he's up to running a big race today under conditions that are ideal and hoping that he'll have come on for that run in the Dollar. Whilst I wouldn't be brave/stupid enough to suggest he could get the better of Jack hobbs or Found I think he is certainly capable of mixing it with the rest of the bunch. The problem of how to play this is a different matter though. I wouldn't be keen on backing him e/w as I don't think there is any value in the win bet as I certainly don't think he's capable of that. Perhaps a Place bet only in a 4 places market if you can find one or the 40/1 with Ladbrokes e/w W/O Jack Hobbs might be a fair enough play but even then we're relying on Found to run a stinker to have any chance of picking up the win.

Overall its a tough one and I probably won't back the opinion but I'd be really pleased to see him run a big race and finish 4th or 5th just for prides sake of having judged him correctly.
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This is why I like to post on forums it sometimes helps to clarify my thoughts. Looking back at what I've said Its clear I think Hobbs and found will be the first 2 home which order I'm unsure of. So really what I am looking for is a market W/O Jack hobbs and Found. At which point I'm reminded of something Warbler used to say to me during my apprenticeship of sorts that if your looking to back in a without market then you must believe you have the winner so play the forecast. In this instance I must believe then I have the first 2 correct so I've decided for a small investment I can back the opinion at large odds.

I've taken 2 tricasts

Jack hobbs to beat Found to beat Air pilot @227.61 £5

Found to beat Jack Hobbs to beat Air pilot @ 320.47 £5

Worth a rattle Imo anyway.
 
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1.20

Adaay was a horse i liked early doors..posted good figures..but he seems better on a flat track..all attempts at Ascot have seen him beaten..shame coz he is a nice price..just can't have over this test

Muharaar is a top sprinter but personally would have prefered GF for him

at this level Maarek needs lots of give to slow the best down

the tin man put in a big figure last time..easily..dark one here..but a big step up in class

strathburn..flatter track more ideal?..and was advantaged by the pace last time when close to Twilight Son

TWILIGHT SON looks champion sprinter material to me..potentially we haven't yet seen the best of him..small cover bet on The Tin Man
 
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That was a gift, complete rick, should have have been 6/4 or shorter. Best sprinter we've seen for a few years and a cracking generation. Commonwealth cup helped shape the sprint season this year.
 
The maurice de gheest was borderline g/s, straight track at Ascot is also much better ground. I really couldn't believe the price, i got 3.95 on bf... mental. Twilight son is a good horse EC, lets hope they both stay in training.
 
Whats your view on the filly and mares? First reaction is Covert Love is another rick... Should be clear fav, Candarliya and Simple verse lack pace....Sea Calisi might be the danger, i'm guessing Euro will be on her!!
 
i'd still do the same bet on the ground today Aragorn..but fair play for your opinion..you get paid for being right at this game..and it feels great when you get it right..well done

these two are decent sprinters..agree..hopefully we might see a decent division next year where some G1 sprints have mid 120 performances..he is a monster though is M..great figures...TS is clear of anything else
 
Backed Covert Love at 6's e/w. If Smullen gets loose on the lead she'll win. Only way she might get beat is if they go very quick and it becomes a slog, she stays but gone e/w to protect myself..
 
Aragorn said:
Whats your view on the filly and mares? First reaction is Covert Love is another rick... Should be clear fav, Candarliya and Simple verse lack pace....Sea Calisi might be the danger, i'm guessing Euro will be on her!!
Click to expand...

not that keen on CL..from the front with an easy time last time..different here..don't like leger winners dropped back so don't want SV..might have a little on madame chiang

small stakes for me today..these aren't my idea of serious betting days..races are way too hot
 
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