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Hennessy

It is a declaration stage, final decs will be on Thursday because it is a showcase handicap.

I'm hoping he stays in. He fell last season............. then came out and ran 10 days later.
 
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Yes Grassy


Hennessy_zpsmivkc4v9.jpg
 
I am quite sweet on Blaklion for this . If Un Temps pour Tout wins they must surely aim him for the Gold Cup and that could put the cat among the pigeons as to who will ride Thistlecrack ?
 
If this rain keeps coming would be keen on Otago Trail at 50/1. I've never seen a horse go through the heavy like he does and he will certainly be staying on when others have cried enough. Venetias starting to run into form. My worry is I'm not sure if he is going to run and if he does whether they use it as a prep for the Welsh National.
 
Aubusson rated 149, which is probably (definitely) a little high, given he has achieved very little over fences to-date, but I've complemented my Local Show bet anyway.

Why have one 50/1 no-hoper running for you, when you can have two? At least the ground should suit both.
 
Newbury now soft, good to soft in places (hurdle) and good to soft, soft in places (chase) after 18.4mm of rain in last 24 hrs.
 
I've done the figures for the Hennessy (bar Outlander as I've still to check his latest form) and it looks hot.


There's a good dozen I like the look of but in the hope of stealing some early value have taken two ante-post bets this afternoon.


Carole's Destrier (0.5pt win 50/1) - has a bit to find on the ratings but not unlikely to do so and has gone blue in places this afternoon. Mulholland's only declared runner and likely to be a Kealy or Segal pick this week, in which case the price will halve. If he turns up on Saturday he probably won't be any more than 16/1 regardless of whether they've tipped him.


Upswing (0.25pt ew 66/1) - half-expecting him not to run but Jonjo only has Holywell - not his time of year? - and Another Hero who is 6lbs out of the handicap, and he ran well in the stayers' chase at Cheltenham the other week.


They wouldn't be my main fancies but I'm not ready to back them yet.
 
The race has me flummoxed.

Usually, I would have a fairly strong opinion about at least one runner (twice it's been Denman, and I've done my bollocks :lol:), but I am struggling this time. After backing Local Show and Aubusson, I decided I best take another look to try and make a case for something more obvious.......and ended-up backing Otaga bleedin' Trail....another 50/1 chance!

I'm giving up at this stage. The first three in the betting could have it between them, or one of the outers may cause a surprise. I can't figure it out, so will leave it to others to try and make sense of it.
 
Native River will get outpaced and stay on for third or fourth.
Un Temps ihas gone up ten pounds for his Cheltenham win
Of 166 Smad Place looks badly handicapped now
Blacklion and Saphir have chances
HenryP won the Midlands Nash off a 15lb lower mark. Badly handicapped
Vyta DR Nicely weighted and ground will suit. Price gone now.

As a stable follower I like Aubusson but he has so little fencing action, and none in a decent sized field.
 
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I like this bullet point rationale method to gambling that Euro done just there and Anadin on another thread

I am killing myself with data lately, not to much success

Time to get back to brass and tacks
 
I hadn't really looked at local hero until I saw him mentioned here. Very light on experience but looks potentially well handicapped as a result.

Is he an intended runner?? If so 50s looks very generous.

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bullet point handicapping works..get into it G..its good stuff..i do it everyday with every handicap chases..surprising how it focuses the head..its a simple but effective way of finding wins or lays

i'll post a few up over the coming days with bread and butter fare..which is really the best way..of getting bread and butter on the table..these big races are all well and good..kudos for finding winner..try it every day...that is best test
 
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littlelad said:
I hadn't really looked at local hero until I saw him mentioned here. Very light on experience but looks potentially well handicapped as a result.

Is he an intended runner?? If so 50s looks very generous.

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Click to expand...


Pauling said his prep had gone more-or-less perfectly, littlelad, though I recall he was very mildly-peeved about not getting a run into him beforehand (had an entry at Open meeting, but wasn't declared). I would have dug out the original quote for you, but it seems the RP - in their infinite wisdom - have deleted it.....the twats.

Anyways, I was happy enough with the bulletin at the time, and my main concern was about him getting into the race, as he was #60 when I backed him. No such concerns now.
 
Grasshopper said:
Pauling said his prep had gone more-or-less perfectly, littlelad, though I recall he was very mildly-peeved about not getting a run into him beforehand (had an entry at Open meeting, but wasn't declared). I would have dug out the original quote for you, but it seems the RP - in their infinite wisdom - have deleted it.....the twats.

Anyways, I was happy enough with the bulletin at the time, and my main concern was about him getting into the race, as he was #60 when I backed him. No such concerns now.
Click to expand...
Thanks grass.

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Euronymous said:
Un Temps ihas gone up ten pounds for his Cheltenham win
Of 166 Smad Place looks badly handicapped now
HenryP won the Midlands Nash off a 15lb lower mark. Badly handicapped
Click to expand...

I would urge caution about dismissing a rise in the handicap without contextualising it.

Un Tomp Or Two may have gone up a bit but he and Holywell were miles clear of a very hot field and having been close to top class over hurdles he could be close to top class over fences. Or better?
Likewise HPM. He's on a similar mark as when cantering just in behind the pace when unseating in the Whitbread. What if he'd won that (for which he was very heavily backed)? He'd be seven pounds higher than here.
 
Littlelad, it seems I had already provided the RP quote a couple or so pages back - here it is:

"Local showing right signs
Ben Pauling, whose Drumacoo has failed to qualify for the race, is happy with the condition of Local Show, who can be backed at 50-1.
"The race is very much on the cards for Local Show," said the trainer. "He's in exceptionally good form. He was supposed to go to Ascot but it was far too quick. We're looking forward to completing final preparations."
 
pick out the best chase tomorrow..anaylse it in detail..and lay or back what your judgement tells you..over a period of months..if you any good..you will be up..if you not..then picking a race 4 weeks in future is unlikely to fatten your bank balance
 
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There are more important things in life than bank-balance....such as soul-affirming, hopelessly-optimistic, ante-post tilts, at races like the Hennessy.

It's what separates the artisans and poets, from the bri-nylon-clad, robotic drones. ;)

:cool:
 
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but when i start a thread..first thing you want to know is..does it make a profit

to me if you sh1t at day to day..then your chance of being right in 4 weeks time is fook all minus

you yourself have quoted the money aspect on threads i have started..but now it don't matter?..its no use being an artisan with empty pockets and anus ready to be consumed by some animal to gain recompenese

i'll go with money in kitty and arse intact over no money and two areseholes..one knitted from nowt
 
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