Hennessy

As in a grand national type of trip granger? You could be right and I reckon the likes of the Beecher & Welsh national will all come into reckoning this year. He's no slouch either tho and got close enough to the eventual gold cup winner over 20f in the Kinlough Brae at Thurles at the start of the year. 3m1f around Newbury in holding conditions should be ideal.


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Just watched the video of Outlanders fall last week.
He had that race in the bag.
The eventual winner Alelchi Inois was rated 161 heading into the race, he'll probably go to 165 or something now. Outlander was giving him 3 pounds that day too.
Which all points to it being a good piece of form and Outlanders mark of 153 very workable.
 
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Marble said:
Just watched the video of Outlanders fall last week.
He had that race in the bag.
The eventual winner Alelchi Inois was rated 161 heading into the race, he'll probably go to 165 or something like that. Outlander was giving him 3 pounds that day too.
Which all points to it being a good piece of form.

I'll be backing Outlander if he's declared. I think 153 is very workable.
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if they were thinking about the Henneesy he would not have run last week at clomnel
 
You never know. What would he carry in the Hennessy off that mark?? Mid ten stones? Must be tempting to try him a big handicap now.
 
Wounded Warrior goes to Thurles now instead on Thursday for that listed chase I understand so hold off on that bet hezz. A 'change in plan' according to Meade so that may very well open the door for Outlander or Empire of Dirt for Elliott.


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Kauto Abu said:
Wounded Warrior goes to Thurles now instead on Thursday for that listed chase I understand so hold off on that bet hezz. A 'change in plan' according to Meade so that may very well open the door for Outlander or Empire of Dirt for Elliott.


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Cheers Kauto. Luckily havent had any money on yet.
 
they are sh1t though DG..lazy..pointless...and no wonder folk decry stats with that sort of nonsense

come on man:D..we supposed to be informed on here..we might as well ask Tanya to throw some stuff as read that hogwash
 
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HEAD OF THE MARKET – 8 of the last 10 winners were priced at 10/1 or shorter.

this stuff belongs in a bin doesn't it?..well fook me..most winners were 10/1 or shorter..really..how unusual....fookin hell..they kiddin..most races have winners that were 10/1 or shorter...a bit like saying..all winners had 4 legs
 
other week Tanya said..Mullins odds on shots win 50% of the time..to the derision of most of us..well her statement is on same level as this stuff

we supposed be informed punters..this stuff belongs to the 1970's and Tanya's gob..do you really think thats analysis of any worth?

come on DG..we can do better than this with all the real info out there about every horse and race
 
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I'm not having a dig at you here DG..i respect and admire the stuff you do for this forum..you are a top guy for me..probably whats kept the forum going imo...but this stuff ain't it in any way shape or form any use

i know you not a betting man yourself..but this stuff decries the true stats underneath the generalised nonsense that pass as "stats"..and are rightly laughed at by most folk

please do not be offended..but i have to draw to draw a line;)
 
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The last four winners all had two words in their name (if you include the ex-Frenchies "D'") and carried slightly over 11st. Step forward Native River.

Joking aside, it's hard to argue with most at the top of the market although I just can't have Saphir Du Rheu and I can't put too much faith in Un Temps Pour Tout as, while I don't doubt he has the ability to win, he's been beaten favorite six times at odds of 11/8, 7/4, 4/5, 6/4, 3/1 & 6/4 in 12 runs outside of France and his inconsistency puts me off.

Henri Parry Morgan was of interest but his price has gradually halved over the past week to a point where he's priced up like he won the Whitbread instead of falling and there's no way he should be shorter than RSA winner Blaklion IMO.

Smad Place will run well but is likely to find the weight concession just too much against some decent season season chasers.

It wouldn't be the biggest of boil-overs if any of the remainder were to pop up but for that to happen I reckon all of Native River, Vyta Du Roc, Blaklion and Un Temps Per Tout have to run below form and having all had a pipe opener already this season I just can't see that happening.

I'll leave it to the day before playing but if having to name the first three right now I'd probably plump for Vyta Du Roc, Blaklion and Native River (loosely in that order) but the current prices would lean me towards backing the Twister horse e/w.
 
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EC1 said:
HEAD OF THE MARKET – 8 of the last 10 winners were priced at 10/1 or shorter.

this stuff belongs in a bin doesn't it?..well fook me..most winners were 10/1 or shorter..really..how unusual....fookin hell..they kiddin..most races have winners that were 10/1 or shorter...a bit like saying..all winners had 4 legs
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Outlander might be by race time.
 
The last four winners all had two words in their name (if you include the ex-Frenchies "D'") and carried slightly over 11st. Step forward Native River.

he wins..as discussed earlier with DO and the days since ran stat

the two name thing though swings it for me though:lol:
 
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EC1 said:
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he wins..as discussed earlier with DO and the days since ran stat...
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Remind me?

Edit: ah yes, the 30 days (as opposed to 29 or 31 ;)) stat.

Didn't realise you were concluding that it would make it the winner, though.

Remember the one stat that really matters: regardless of when a horse last ran, what its form figures are, what weight it carries or how many blow-jobs its lass has given in the previous 48 hours, winners of the Hennessy are better-handicapped than the average Saturday handicap winner.
 
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its not about 29 or 31..its about how a horse performs within a set band..ridicule all you want:)..but horses have patterns..its not all about being well in..many big handicaps are won by up to the hilt horses

its no use having 10 in hand when you not fit..handicapping is a part of the process..not the whole caboodle..there isn't one aspect alone that gives winners..its a bigger game than that..as you well know:)
 
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When I won my Hennesy second time Around it was bloody hard work after a 20 month lay off :D

The principal staying handicap chase run before Christmas and a race with a long and distinguished history, going back to the likes of Mill House and Arkle and a string of other Gold Cup heroes who were also successful here. Previous winners State Of Play and Denman were attempting to emulate æhimself´ by winning twice and DENMAN joined the ranks of the all-time greats with a superlative performance in repeating his 2007 victory on a course where he is now unbeaten in five attempts.

Never at his best last season having been diagnosed with a heart murmur after his defeat of Kauto Star in the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup, connections clearly felt he was back to something like his old self for this return to action, and he arguably recorded a career-best victory in taking this off a mark (174) 13lb higher than when scoring two years ago. Driven at the start to get a pitch near the front, he went on halfway down the back on the second circuit and his bold jumping and relentless galloping gradually drew the sting from his rivals.

He looked set to give best to his stable companion at the last but produced a far better leap than his challenger and kept on gamely all the way to the line. Various bookmakers quoted him as new favourite for the Gold Cup after this, but that is a long way off and this terrific performer owes nobody anything, having given jump racing followers two of the most memorable performances in the 50-plus year history of this race. He is likely to run in the Aon Chase back here before Cheltenham.
 
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