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The 2021 Longshot Thread

I missed the off and only saw from the run to the first. My first words were "Fvck me".

The fast ground completely changed the complexion of the race and YW looked novicey throughout the early stages. Hopefully he learns from it but they won't be going much less quickly at the festival so expect that kind of competition.

Really good race to watch, though. I love it when they go fast.
 
Marb said:
I'm not too deflated about Eamon today.

He's bumped into one in excellent form and Grumpy Charley was a former David Pipe trained horse himself.

Maybe there's been method in my madness, as Grumpy Charley has three entries at the festival, with one being in the Martin Pipe handicaps Hurdle over 2M4F.

The way that he stayed on in today race makes the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle entry over the extra four furlongs look really interesting for Grumpy Charley.

I could see myself having a proper bet on him in the near future.

You'd think to beat a horse like Eamon today, who was really well in, that it's very a good sign that Grumpy Charley is improving, and probably ahead of his official mark aswell.

So yeah as I say, maybe method in my madness.
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I've reassessed what I think about Eamon.

Now that he's in a good spirits/form and has been rejuvenated over hurdles, I think they should switch him back over fences to the Grand Annual. Maybe he'd have an each way chance. I'd be interested in him if they choose that option.
 
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Grand National - Definitly Red 100/1 - hampered out of the 2017 National when just 10/1 (10lbs well in off 149) but took in the Gold Cup the following season by which time his mark had gone up 167. In 2019 he went for the Gold Cup again followed by the Punchestown Gold Cup. He was targeting last year's National again off 156 (4lbs well in) having hacked up in Saturday's Kelso race after the weights came out. Two poor runs this season require forgiving and I've no idea if he's even targeting the race this season but he's proved he isn't up to winning a Gold Cup so I don't see why not if he's in off 158. If he wins again on Saturday - or even just shows he's as good as he was this time last season - he'll be 20/1.
 
Can't say I ever heard that, Moe, but he's declared for Saturday and in the National field.
 
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Not retired and confirmed a few weeks back GN is the plan.

However on hearing this I had a closer look myself with the intention of backing him, however when I went through his form there is one glaring pattern that put me right off.

He has run 36 times and won 15 which is quite impressive. But those 15 wins have all come in races with 11 runners or less. 15 wins in 26 races. He has run in 10 races with 12 or more runners and is yet to win, only 3 places from those 10 runs was certainly enough to put me off.
 
I tend not to take that kind of thing into account in the National. They spread out a lot more and if he races prominently he won't see any more than a dozen horses.

I would also want to know if those big-runner fields were simply more competitive (eg Hennessy/Ladbroke, etc).
 
I don’t know why I thought it. Might have got myself mixed up with his jockey being injured perhaps. It’s an age thing. I still have to avoid Holland and Barrett in Berwick on Tweed after telling the guy behind the counter there to back Definitely Red. I fancied him that year anyway but then a black cat wearing a red collar came into the garden and we never see cats in the garden: which made him a racing certainty in my eyes. It’s up there with telling everyone to back Point Barrow one year and telling work colleagues not to back Silver Birch.
 
Amoola Gold (Grand Annual) - 20/1 Hills

Runs off 146 (10-10).

Is 8lbs better off for 2L defeat by favourite Sky Pirate.
Is 8lbs better off with Ibleo when beating Venertias horse a neck at Ascot
Was beaten a neck by First Flow when receiving 10lbs (relative marks 138/148) at Ascot. First Flow now rated 166.

Is a strong stayer at 2m and sees out his races out really well.

Is trained by still-in-form Dan Skelton.

Has been freshened-up for Festival since defeat to Sky Pirate in mid-January.

This is his only Festival entry.

Is guaranteed a run at Number 19 on the race-card.


I am very, very warm on this one.
 
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2.05 Kelso - Battle Of Wills 66/1 - As a 3yo on the Flat, his OR peaked at 90 for James Tate and he went to Gordon Elliott for a hurdles career. He comfortably won his maiden and two runs later was 15/8f to give 7lbs to a 117-rated opponent. If that market was correct he would be a minimum 125 horse, which would probably translate to a UK mark of 131. However, he disappointed then and on his next two runs before leaving Elliott and returning to the UK with his mark down to 125 again. Another few poor runs see him down 10lbs but at some point there’s a chance he’ll come back to form and I wouldn’t put it past his trainer to have plotted him for this one. It might be a far-fetched plot but at those odds I am willing to pay to find out.
 
Marb said:
I've reassessed what I think about Eamon.

Now that he's in good spirits/form and has been rejuvenated over hurdles, I think they should switch him back over fences to the Grand Annual. Maybe he'd have an each way chance. I'd be interested in him if they choose that option.
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Eamon An Cnoic 10/1 for the Imperial cup Saturday
 
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Maxbet said:
Eamon An Cnoic 10/1 for the William Hill Saturday
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The Imperial Cup you mean?

I've had a quick look. The highest mark/weight looks a bit less this season. About 143? Maybe he'll just get a run yet.

I'd given up hope he'd make the cut for the County, so did him each way for the Grand Annual, only small stakes mind.

So the plot thickens eh...

Simple question. If he won the Imperial, what's the procedure for how his mark would increase?

I. E would he get a penalty or whatever else. To help him make the cut for a Cheltenham race?
.
 
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Marb said:
The Imperial Cup you mean?

I've had a quick look. The highest mark/weight looks a bit less this season. About 143? Maybe he'll just get a run yet.
.
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Guaranteed a run if they want. Only 21 declared and the bottom weight will be off 116.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Guaranteed a run if they want. Only 21 declared and the bottom weight will be off 116.
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Well spotted.

My cards on the table. I reckon he's got an excellent chance this Saturday all things considered. I'll probably back him soon.

Although I'm still struggling to see how he'd have any chance in a race like the county.

Surely this saturday is D Day for him.

If he turns up in a race at cheltenham I'll have a token saver on.

Currently his chase mark is still higher than his hurdles mark, (130/126).
 
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Unless by winning the imperial cup he is guaranteed a run at Cheltenham even if his mark is still very low. That's the only way I can forsee it happening.
 
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Marb said:
Unless by winning the imperial cup he is guaranteed a run at Cheltenham even if his mark is still very low. That's the only way I can forsee it happening.
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He won't get into anything at Cheltenham Marb
 
HOMME PUBLIC fred winter boodles hcap 28s skynet 5 places.
If this was trained by a top trainer it wouldnt be this price.finished just behind Houx Gris (5/1) in france and is better at the weights.
 
Ever the glutton for punishment, I've gone in on a hunch and backed Langer Dan in both the Coral Cup (40/1) and Martin Pipe (50/1), both NRNB and BOG, so most bases are covered.

I haven't studied his form in any detail, I should admit.

However, he's only 8/1 for the Imperial Cup with Skelton already booked, which made me have a quick look.

He wasn't beaten at all far in the Fred Winter last year and is now lower (4lbs, I think) in the weights after a few modest runs this season. The Imperial Cup will be his second run since a wind op and a penalty will help him make the cut in either festival race. If he did win the Imperial Cup his price would collapse and even a narrow defeat might have the same impact.

Skelton is more than capable of laying them out for the handicaps (Mohayyed, Superb Story, Ch'tibello...) but maybe the bonus is in the crosshairs this year.

At the price, I don't mind tagging along.

Whether I'll back him on Saturday is another matter!
 
I had a small ew interest in the Langer Dan for the Pipe race, the other day, DO.

At #97 on the card, he will surely struggle to get into the Coral Cup - even with a penalty
 
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