The 2021 Longshot Thread

Marb said:
The Imperial Cup is not that far away, at the scene if today's demolition job, Sandown.

Depending on what the handicapper does, it wouldn't surprise me if they stepped him up in class next time out in a race like the Imperial Cup. He might have to win again before hand though to even make the cut.
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They do know how to win the Imperial cup!
 
Yes, but on the evidence of last seasons Imperial Cup, he'd need to be rated at least 135 to get a run.

There's no chance of him moving from 117 to 135 after todays win alone.

This race at Uttoxeter on Sunday is another class 4. I'd want to see him win a class 3 in the near future.
 
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Marb said:
Yes, but on the evidence of last seasons Imperial Cup, he'd need to be rated at least 135 to get a run.

There's no chance of him moving from 117 to 135 after todays win alone.

This race at Uttoxeter on Sunday is another class 4. I'd want to see him win a class 3 in the near future.
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He'd get in, but he would be out the handicap....which makes no difference if he's ahead of the H

If he were to run 4Lb out of the handicap with a 5Lb claimer on board, then he'd be a 1Lb well in!
 
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I like his way of racing. To go out in front and pulverise the opposition. I just think the way he won today, that he could win a better race over 2M.

Maybe not the Imperial Cup or County, but more likely a class 3 or even class 2 in the near future.
 
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Maxbet said:
He'd get in, but he would be out the handicap....which makes no difference if he's ahead of the H

If he were to run 4Lb out of the handicap with a 5Lb claimer on board, then he'd be a 1Lb well in!
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Eamon An Cnoic is entered in three handicap hurdles on Thursday now, including a class 3 at Chepstow. If they chose to run in that class 3 and he won, who could say he wouldn't make the cut in the County? Or run in the Imperial first.

Anyway, I'll shut up about him until next week. I don't want to jump the gun and all that.
 
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Martin Pipe knew how to lay one out, e.g. Unsinkable Boxer who was a G1 animal running off mid 130s in the Pertemps

David would struggle to lay the kitchen table and Eamon An Cnoic is no G1 animal but if the ground turned up bottomless and if you knew he was capable of translating his chase form from a couple of years back, in either the plate or the handicap a few months later, then he'd be of interest. The problem he'll have is the mark he'd need to qualify for a County would appear to be about his limit and I'd be amazed if he had the pounds in hand at his age that many of the lesser exposed, others will have.
 
wilsonl said:
Martin Pipe knew how to lay one out, e.g. Unsinkable Boxer who was a G1 animal running off mid 130s in the Pertemps

David would struggle to lay the kitchen table and Eamon An Cnoic is no G1 animal but if the ground turned up bottomless and if you knew he was capable of translating his chase form from a couple of years back, in either the plate or the handicap a few months later, then he'd be of interest. The problem he'll have is the mark he'd need to qualify for a County would appear to be about his limit and I'd be amazed if he had the pounds in hand at his age that many of the lesser exposed, others will have.
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Fair enough, Lee.

Eamon looks like he's in really good form now, judging by his last two hurdle races.

We'll wait and see eh.

I'd only be interested re the county if he ran and impressed, (preferably winning on the bridle) , in the class three at Chepstow on Thursday.
 
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Marb said:
Fair enough, Lee.

Eamon looks like he's in really good form now, judging by his last two hurdle races.

We'll wait and see eh.

I'd only be interested re the county if he ran and impressed, (preferably winning on the bridle) , in the class three at Chepstow on Thursday.
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You're obviously sweet on him so if you can get Paddy to introduce him into their list then it's worth backing him NRNB now because the only way he can run in the County is if he impresses enough between now and then to receive a high enough mark. In which case he'll likely be shorter nearer the time.

If he doesn't and thus either won't qualify or be entered then you'll get your money back.
 
I had a falling out with Paddy about 15 years ago, can't use them anymore.

Now that they're linked with betfair, Betfair actually closed my account down last week, stating that if I am barred from Paddy's I'm also barred from them. I phoned Betfair last week to check this, before I was going to put a decent sized bet on for Cheltenham, and they confirmed my suspicion.

In other news, I had my bet 365 account closed down earlier this week. I simply requested they take the virtual cartoon racing off my sports page, they replied with 'no'. Then permanently excluded me. It seems you can't ask an honest question anymore without them reaching the conclusion you are a problem gambler.

Despite repeated requests to get them to correct their mistake, (after all I was only making an inquiry or asking a question), they refused to reinstate my account.

So I think the only bookies I can bet with online now are Boylesports, William Hill and Skybet.

If any of these operators happen to merge with Paddy, Betfair, or Bet 365 in the future, no doubt I'll be the first person they'll choose to exclude just because they can.
 
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Ps, yes I do fancy Eamon looks in the great from at present, but as I said Lee, I want to see if he races again on Thursday, especially in the class 3.

If the handicapper still hasn't got him by then I could see running another big race over hurdles in a better race.
 
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Grand National - Lord Du Mesnil 50/1 NRNB (Paddy Power/Betfair)

He was one of my ante-post bets last year, also 50s NRNB, despite my aversion to 7yos in the race. He would have been 6lbs well in. I backed him on the eve of the Haydock National Trial in anticipation of a win but he went up 6lbs for being a good second. He then ran into a serious tool in Ravenhill in the NH Chase. He's now a second-season chaser and entitled to improve but they've kept him quiet, presumably to preserve his mark. In fact, he's back down to 149 so likely to be right at the bottom of the weights and should qualify so he can win tomorrow's renewal if he likes as he won't pick up a penalty. A win, or even a good run, will see his mark go back up again and he'll be that much well in again come April. He was reportedly stressed after the Welsh National so I presume something was amiss.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Grand National - Lord Du Mesnil 50/1 NRNB (Paddy Power/Betfair)

He was one of my ante-post bets last year, also 50s NRNB, despite my aversion to 7yos in the race. He would have been 6lbs well in. I backed him on the eve of the Haydock National Trial in anticipation of a win but he went up 6lbs for being a good second. He then ran into a serious tool in Ravenhill in the NH Chase. He's now a second-season chaser and entitled to improve but they've kept him quiet, presumably to preserve his mark. In fact, he's back down to 149 so likely to be right at the bottom of the weights and should qualify so he can win tomorrow's renewal if he likes as he won't pick up a penalty. A win, or even a good run, will see his mark go back up again and he'll be that much well in again come April. He was reportedly stressed after the Welsh National so I presume something was amiss.
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Doesnt him finishing stressed contradict the idea that he was kept quiet this year to protect his mark. Think the Welsh National was the target this year and he didn't ever recover the thread after last season's improvement. Hope he comes back to himself, if he does its most likely to be on bottomless ground. That 4m (3m5f) does seem to kill off horses.
 
I should have made it clearer. While I accept that finishing distressed would be a negative I had worked on the assumption that nothing was going to beat Secret Reprieve that day and LDM was not going to bust a gut and his mark trying. A nice run round in fourth or fifth would have been fine.
 
Sorry to say DO but a horse finishing stressed in a Welsh National - for whatever reason - is not one I want to be backing in the Aintree version.

50/1 is big odds, in any other race and I loved the horse a year or so ago but wouldn’t put hard earned on him now.
 
Ascot 2.25 - Sub Lieutenant 25/1 (22/1 for 4pl) - I have this one joint top on my ratings for the race and the jockey will take five off. I don't know much about her (Nick Gifford likes her - 24%) or the trainer but the horse was once a 162 graded animal and is now off 146, a mark that will probably sneak him in at the bottom of the National card. I've stuck some fun money on that too at 100/1 NRNB just in case he surprises today.
 
Haydock 3.50 - Captain Moirette 25/1 - He’s very lightly raced for his age and was rated 134 as a novice so could have been expected to go on from there into his second season. After beating Ch’ti Balko in heavy ground here off 130 he was off for eleven months and a couple of moderate runs over fences see him back over hurdles off a lenient-looking 129. He’ll need to win well if the series final is on his agenda as he’ll need to go up about 6lbs. Worth chancing today, I reckon.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Grand National - Lord Du Mesnil 50/1 NRNB (Paddy Power/Betfair)

He was one of my ante-post bets last year, also 50s NRNB, despite my aversion to 7yos in the race. He would have been 6lbs well in. I backed him on the eve of the Haydock National Trial in anticipation of a win but he went up 6lbs for being a good second. He then ran into a serious tool in Ravenhill in the NH Chase. He's now a second-season chaser and entitled to improve but they've kept him quiet, presumably to preserve his mark. In fact, he's back down to 149 so likely to be right at the bottom of the weights and should qualify so he can win tomorrow's renewal if he likes as he won't pick up a penalty. A win, or even a good run, will see his mark go back up again and he'll be that much well in again come April. He was reportedly stressed after the Welsh National so I presume something was amiss.
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Hope you didnt miss out today! Great to see him back.
 
Newbury 1.50 Nordano 80/1 - I have him top-rated on the pick of his form but he'll be vulnerable to second-season improvers and three poor runs this season require forgiving. Still, he probably shouldn't be anywhere near 80/1 if he can get back to form and Frost will give him every chance if he's good enough.
 
We should see tomorrow if Eamon An Cnoic turns out quickly again this Thursday.

He's three entries on Thursday, with one entry in the class three at Chepstow.

That's the entry I hope he takes up.
 
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Marb said:
We should see tomorrow if Eamon An Cnoic turns out quickly again this Thursday.

He's three entries on Thursday, with one entry in the class three at Chepstow.

That's the entry I hope he takes up.
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He runs at Chepstow in the class 3.

The handicapper has raised him to a mark of 128, so it looks like he's officially a few pound well in on Thursday. The RP have him on bottom weight running off his old mark, (117).
 
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