The 2021 Longshot Thread

FIRST LORD DE CUET m.pipe 33/1 trained by D.Pipe.also entered for the pertemps.
 
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Big ew patent nrnb

FIRST LORD DE CUET 33/1 m.pipe
JACOMAR 33/1 pertemps
ALMAZHAR GUARDE plate 40/1

I can dream.
 
Copied from the Handicaps thread:


I've taken one at a price in the Kim Muir, NRNB/BOG, just in case it doesn't actually run or, worse still, tries his hand in the NHC.

Macgiloney 33/1 - it's a slightly left-field selection but there has to be a chance he's been plotted up for over 18 months for this, since he went close in a decent novices' hurdle at Galway. He later came over to Cheltenham rated 137 but didn't run well behind Ramses De Teillee although the balance of his form suggests the heavy ground would have been against him.

A 137 novice then should have become a 147 second-season hurdler or first-season novice chaser, going on to become a 157 second-season chaser.

It looks to me like he's been kept largely to diddy races in which he can have a doddle around to gain experience but when the money's down he can run well. He beat Doctor Duffy (odds-on, 12L clear of the third, now rated 147) last July. He was also pitched in against Monkfish last month at 200/1 so an ideal opportunity to suffer a hefty doing but he ended up being brought down early. He then took in a weak novice chase, which he won despite a slipping saddle in ground that wouldn't have suited.

He looks like having every chance of making the cut at #30 on the current card and is off 131.
 
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I love your way of thinking.always look forward to reading your thoughts.
Have you noticed LASAKIN in the plate.venitia William's.only got it in feb and it hasnt run in this country yet.
 
Outsider said:
Have you noticed LASAKIN in the plate.venitia William's.only got it in feb and it hasnt run in this country yet.
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Yes. I have 'chk' annotated next to his name to remind me to check his form since it isn't in 'the book'. It certainly caught my eye give VW's astuteness.

Edit just checked - Laskalin is rated 65 in France, which translates straight across to 143 so the handicapper has taken his French counterpart very much on trusst.

I wonder if the buyer is the same as the one who found royale Pagaille who was rated 62 in France!!

(Makes you wonder about Paul's Saga who is rated 78/172.)
 
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Sandown 1.50 Road Senam 50/1 - in similar vein to Laskalin above, Road Senam was 66 in France which translates to 145. Two quiet runs and it turns up in this race off 125. At the price, why not.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sandown 1.50 Road Senam 50/1 - in similar vein to Laskalin above, Road Senam was 66 in France which translates to 145. Two quiet runs and it turns up in this race off 125. At the price, why not.
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Hard not to be a wee bit annoyed by that. Anchored in rear off a slow pace in very soft ground, never put in the race or given a clear run and jogs on past beaten horses for fifth place.

Is there another valuable novices' handicap hurdle in the calendar in the next month or so?
 
Pissed off with that. I put Road Senam in an acca, when Corals were offering 5 places. With the NRs and a 15-horse field, they changed the terms of the bet. I’d have been happy with a deduction, not a change in the terms of the bet.
 
Outsider said:
I love your way of thinking.always look forward to reading your thoughts.
Have you noticed LASAKIN in the plate.venitia William's.only got it in feb and it hasnt run in this country yet.
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She’s got another one from France running today, as well. Farinet 3:35 Sandown. Ran well in his first race in UK at Haydock being given an easy time and promptly thrown into listed company today. It’s not a longshot, I’m afraid, but worth a mention.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Ever the glutton for punishment, I've gone in on a hunch and backed Langer Dan in both the Coral Cup (40/1) and Martin Pipe (50/1), both NRNB and BOG, so most bases are covered.

I haven't studied his form in any detail, I should admit.

However, he's only 8/1 for the Imperial Cup with Skelton already booked, which made me have a quick look.

He wasn't beaten at all far in the Fred Winter last year and is now lower (4lbs, I think) in the weights after a few modest runs this season. The Imperial Cup will be his second run since a wind op and a penalty will help him make the cut in either festival race. If he did win the Imperial Cup his price would collapse and even a narrow defeat might have the same impact.

Skelton is more than capable of laying them out for the handicaps (Mohayyed, Superb Story, Ch'tibello...) but maybe the bonus is in the crosshairs this year.

At the price, I don't mind tagging along.

Whether I'll back him on Saturday is another matter!
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Be a right shame if we don't get a run, DO. That was impressive, and he barely came out of a canter.

He's #41 on the card. It's going to be close at best, I think.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Ever the glutton for punishment, I've gone in on a hunch and backed Langer Dan in both the Coral Cup (40/1) and Martin Pipe (50/1), both NRNB and BOG, so most bases are covered.

I haven't studied his form in any detail, I should admit.

However, he's only 8/1 for the Imperial Cup with Skelton already booked, which made me have a quick look.

He wasn't beaten at all far in the Fred Winter last year and is now lower (4lbs, I think) in the weights after a few modest runs this season. The Imperial Cup will be his second run since a wind op and a penalty will help him make the cut in either festival race. If he did win the Imperial Cup his price would collapse and even a narrow defeat might have the same impact.

Skelton is more than capable of laying them out for the handicaps (Mohayyed, Superb Story, Ch'tibello...) but maybe the bonus is in the crosshairs this year.

At the price, I don't mind tagging along.

Whether I'll back him on Saturday is another matter!
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I didn't back anything in today's race but I'm pleased with that!

I reckon Grasshopper will be too.
 
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The rain might not have helped so hopefully we will have a drying day and a half.
If he stays I think Nietzsche could run well tomorrow in the Ultima.
Won the Greatwood a few years ago and his run over 2 miles in December behind Sky Pirate and Ibleo reads really well.
 
tiggers1972 said:
The rain might not have helped so hopefully we will have a drying day and a half.
If he stays I think Nietzsche could run well tomorrow in the Ultima.
Won the Greatwood a few years ago and his run over 2 miles in December behind Sky Pirate and Ibleo reads really well.
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Agreed, have him on my shortlist of 3 for the race, will look for any place enhancements available tomorrow morning as he does'nt really win that often! Was placed in the Fred Winter as well.
 
I planned to post these tomorrow morning as a longshot trixie (why not - it's Cheltenham) but money has come for one of them so I've had to get on today. I might go in again tomorrow if the odds lengthen again, ever the glutton, etc...

Ultima - The Wolf now 28/1 tops from 33s - this is as much about what he hasn't done as what he has. When he won nicely at Chepstow earlier in the season he was put up to 144 and looked to be progressing nicely. The jockey reported that it rode like a good race. Unfortunately he finished with an injury on his next run and, given that his trainer is Gordon Elliott's former assistant who is more than capable of plotting them up for this meeting, it's possible that getting his mark back down for this race became the focus. If so, it has worked as he's back down to 137 and could give the McNeill family a big run for their money.

Mares - My Sister Sarah 50/1 - I'm a big fan of Concertista having put her up on here two years ago in the mares' novice hurdle on her career debut at 80/1 only to see her caught on the line by a 50/1 stablemate. But I think she is beatable here. I'm a big fan of the good Irish handicaps. I think they are largely more competitive than the UK ones and all the more so at the festival meetings. At Galway back in July she failed by two lengths to give Great White Shark 2lbs in an £80k handicap hurdle. They obviously meet at levels here but GWS is 16/1 tops and MSS is 50s so why the discrepancy? This is her first run since a wind op after losing heavily to Concertista in December and I can see her outrunning her odds by some way.

NHC - Soldier Of Love 33/1 - Galvin has been my fancy for this from the moment he chased home Imperial Aura last year and I backed him at 10/1 on the morning of his win here in October but obviously that was long before Royale Pagaille burst on to the scene. I still think Galvin will win easily now that RP is going for the Gold Cup but Soldier Of Love was second to Galvin here that day and I rate that race quite high. He disappointed on his only subsequent run - they blamed soft ground so the rain is a concern but it might also have come too soon - and should turn up here fresh and well. Frost in the saddle is a plus for a horse noted as jumping well in the Galvin race and I'm not convinced this one should be much longer than the same owner's (first colours) Next Destination (7/2).
 
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Grasshopper said:
Amoola Gold (Grand Annual) - 20/1 Hills

Runs off 146 (10-10).

Is 8lbs better off for 2L defeat by favourite Sky Pirate.
Is 8lbs better off with Ibleo when beating Venertias horse a neck at Ascot
Was beaten a neck by First Flow when receiving 10lbs (relative marks 138/148) at Ascot. First Flow now rated 166.

Is a strong stayer at 2m and sees out his races out really well.

Is trained by still-in-form Dan Skelton.

Has been freshened-up for Festival since defeat to Sky Pirate in mid-January.

This is his only Festival entry.

Is guaranteed a run at Number 19 on the race-card.


I am very, very warm on this one.
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Enthusiasm for this is significantly tempered now that Bridget Andrews rides, and Harry Skelton goes on Not That Fuisse.
 
I wouldn't let that bother me, GH.

Think Mohaayyed...

(Not saying I fancy either, mind!)
 
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Boodles - Glorious Zoff - 25/1

Stupid price for a horse that’s been saved for this race by my reckoning.
 
Double J said:
Boodles - Glorious Zoff - 25/1

Stupid price for a horse that’s been saved for this race by my reckoning.
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I did him in a patent earlier in the week.i thought it was interesting to see that it had been over to race so that the hcapper could work its hcap out against british horses.
He Also sent LONGCLAW over for a grade one and that horse left Elliots to john McConnell.i wonder if that was in case the horses were banned.
So my longshot is LONGCLAW 75/1 4p 66/1 5p 20/1 10places.
 
SAINT SONNET coral cup.33/1

If you look at the trends for this race.
Top 8 in the weights...✔
Rated 140/149✔
6 or 7 yr old ✔
Less than 10 runs over hurdles ✔
French bred ✔
Didnt win last time ✔
Not run for over 32days ✔
Ran 4 times this season or less ✔
 
Yes, the brother texted me last night with a 'hunch' for Saint Sonnet. I'll have a closer look today. I suppose it's possible he is the reason they took Langer Dan out and left him in the M Pipe.

Anyway, I'm going to be throwing money at 50-100/1 shots over the four days because a lot of them shouldn't be any more than 25/1. I won't put them all up on this thread for fear of making myself look even stupider than usual but it's just a bit of affordable fun.

I've taken 50/1 6pl Hell Red in the Fred Winter. This was touted as Nicholls's Triumph horse when he won impressively earlier in the season. He had been close to Monmiral (now 147) in France and was odds-on to beat Duffle Coat here in November, when Adagio (now 145), Balko Saint and Cabot Cliffs were well beaten, but ended up with a wind problem which has been operated on. A disappointing comeback run requires forgiving but maybe he needed to keep his mark down with this in mind.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Yes, the brother texted me last night with a 'hunch' for Saint Sonnet. I'll have a closer look today. I suppose it's possible he is the reason they took Langer Dan out and left him in the M Pipe.

Anyway, I'm going to be throwing money at 50-100/1 shots over the four days because a lot of them shouldn't be any more than 25/1. I won't put them all up on this thread for fear of making myself look even stupider than usual but it's just a bit of affordable fun.

I've taken 50/1 6pl Hell Red in the Fred Winter. This was touted as Nicholls's Triumph horse when he won impressively earlier in the season. He had been close to Monmiral (now 147) in France and was odds-on to beat Duffle Coat here in November, when Adagio (now 145), Balko Saint and Cabot Cliffs were well beaten, but ended up with a wind problem which has been operated on. A disappointing comeback run requires forgiving but maybe he needed to keep his mark down with this in mind.
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That's a stupid price.i took 20/1 a/p.
 
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