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The 2021 Longshot Thread

Lol.

I'm just wanting him to impress again, if he wins well enough he will rise into the 130s, just in time for the Imperial Cup and/or County Hurdle.
 
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Marb said:
I'm just wanting him to impress again, if he wins well enough he will rise into the 130s, just in time for the Imperial Cup and/or County Hurdle.
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Not a snotter's chance in either race, Marb.

His career high hurdles mark was 132, he was 16/1 and beaten out of sight. If he wins on Thursday he won't go up at all as he's already due to go up 11lbs. Off 128 he might make the cut for the Imperial Cup (if he even gets an entry) but would have no chance off that mark. He'd need to be at least 135 to get placed and that's before you take into account the idea of the stable probably having saved one for an attempt at the double with the County (I'm actually thinking Night Edition who was never put into Sunday's race).

Does anyone know if there's a still a £50k bonus for winning the Imperial Cup and again at Cheltenham?
 
Fair enough, Do.

However, I think he looks in the form of his life, and is dangerous now at the minimum distance of 2 miles over hurdles.

He's only had 9 runs over hurdles thus far, winning three of those. He's hardly exposed over hurdles, in fact that's why I'm arguing the opposite. He was sent chasing as the priority at the time.

I think he'll hack up on Thursday.

County hurdle entries should be visible tomorrow, Imperial Cup entries, (which is more realistic), should be a week or so I would have thought.

Moreover he will go up from 128 if he wins the class three on Thursday I'd have thought. The BHA will assess again, probably just before Imperial Cup entries are out.

I don't know how you think they wouldn't tbh.
 
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Marb said:
Fair enough, Do.

However, I think he looks in the form of his life, and is dangerous now at the minimum distance of 2 miles over hurdles.

He's only had 9 runs over hurdles thus far, winning three of those. He's hardly exposed over hurdles, in fact that's why I'm arguing the opposite. He was sent chasing as the priority at the time.

I think he'll hack up on Thursday.

County entries should be visible tomorrow, Imperial Cup entries, (which is more realistic), should be a week or so I would have thought.

He will go up from 128 if he wins the class three on Thursday I'd have thought.

I don't know how you think he wouldn't tbh.
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He runs off 117 on Thursday. He could win 20 lengths and not go beyond 128. After all, he won by 20L last time and only went up to 128 for it so he's entitled to win by 20 lengths again as he hasn't incurred a penalty.

Maybe if he wins by 30 lengths he might go up. There's always the chance the opposition will just let him win with connections of the others all happy just to back him as it should be buying money.

But he isn't some six-year-old with his future all ahead of him. He came back down to 117 for a reason.

I find the idea of his being 'unexposed over hurdles' absurd, to be honest. Horses generally go chasing when they reach their limit over hurdles. He reached his limit over hurdles years ago. He's back below that now but his 11lbs rise takes him back to where he was at his peak.
 
It’s a long time since the Pipes have been in such good form on the run up to Cheltenham. I’d love to see them work some of their handicap magic at the Festival again. And I can imagine myself stood on the right hand side of the pre parade ring where they saddle up waiting in anticipation of the plot unfolding. I so want to be back there in person next year!
 
Well it seems as though he's been entered in the cheltenham handicaps, Moe. I'll watch Thursdays race with interest.

I know a few people's viewpoint is I'm way off the mark with my angle or outlook on this.

I'm glad to see him run Thursday in the class 3 and get a county entry. The fundamentals are in place, if this horse proves that he's in red hot form.

Two firms have priced him for the County. 33/1.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Not a snotter's chance in either race, Marb.

His career high hurdles mark was 132, he was 16/1 and beaten out of sight. If he wins on Thursday he won't go up at all as he's already due to go up 11lbs. Off 128 he might make the cut for the Imperial Cup (if he even gets an entry) but would have no chance off that mark. He'd need to be at least 135 to get placed and that's before you take into account the idea of the stable probably having saved one for an attempt at the double with the County (I'm actually thinking Night Edition who was never put into Sunday's race).

Does anyone know if there's a still a £50k bonus for winning the Imperial Cup and again at Cheltenham?
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£100,000 last year and I was thinking the same about Night edition.
 
Yeah cheers let's see how he is at Chepstow on Thursday, Paul.

If he wins well, hopefully he'll get raised the 6 or 7lb from 128 that he'd need to ensure he gets a run.
 
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I went on google to find out if there was a bonus for the imperial/ chelt double and went to ATR site where they talked about it and Evan Williams said it's something he would love to do.this was last year and it was Mack the man was mentioned.he got brought down in the betfair and never ran again until this season.
Hampered slightly at the first last week and didnt jump that well and was never put in the race.
I thought you might be interested in that Marb as you liked mack the man.
 
I've taken an ante-post pop at a longshot in the Ultima.

I ran off a copy of the card and borrowed my elderly neighbour's trusted old bloodhound Duffer, under whose snout I placed a piece of paper with the words CHELTENHAM PLOT writ large. I then whisked the paper away and replaced it with the Ultima card and ordered old Duffer, "Find!"

Old Duffer enthusiastically flared his nostrils over the card in ever-widening circles before stamping his left-fore paw (I'd always assumed he was right-pawed) on the card, raising his noble head to the ceiling and howling like a banshee at a full moon.

I swiftly double-checked that I hadn't inadvertently trodden on his right paw before prising his left one from the card. At the last moment his centre nail pieced the card bang in the centre of the name of one horse.

The name of that horse?

Young Wolf.

"Good lad, Duffer," I said soothingly patting the crown of his regal pate and rewarding him with his favourite treat, a Drambuie liqueur.

I returned old Duffer to his master and set about investigating the possible claims of Young Wolf.

Same 'team' as previous winner Holywell.
A novice with handicap experience.
On a curve in the first half of the season on good ground but disappointing subsequently on soft over shorter trips.
Handicap mark back down from 142 to 138.
Likely to get in near the bottom of the weights.

I reckon old Duffer might just have sniffed out a nice one here.

66/1.

Good lad, Duffer.
 
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Marb said:
Yeah cheers let's see how he is at Chepstow on Thursday, Paul.

If he wins well, hopefully he'll get raised the 6 or 7lb from 128 that he'd need to ensure he gets a run.
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Eamon An Cnoic is surely the biggest steering job I've seen for a few seasons. Nearly a stone officially well in, with a five pound claimer, and two Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdle entries to boot.

I hope he hacks up. I think he'll hack up.

I conscious this is the longshot thread, so I'll shut it until Cheltenham, or better still, the Imperial Cup.
 
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I'm not too deflated about Eamon today.

He's bumped into one in excellent form and Grumpy Charley was a former David Pipe trained horse himself.

Maybe there's been method in my madness, as Grumpy Charley has three entries at the festival, with one being in the Martin Pipe handicaps Hurdle over 2M4F.

The way that he stayed on in today race makes the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle entry over the extra four furlongs look really interesting for Grumpy Charley.

I could see myself having a proper bet on him in the near future.

You'd think to beat a horse like Eamon today, who was really well in, that it's very a good sign that Grumpy Charley is improving, and probably ahead of his official mark aswell.

So yeah as I say, maybe method in my madness.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've taken an ante-post pop at a longshot in the Ultima.


Young Wolf.
66/1.
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I've gone in again on Young Wolf 33/1 for tomorrow's big handicap at Kempton.

Once you take the Irish horses into account he'll probably need at least 20 above him to drop out in order to make the cut off his current mark so they might feel he needs to go up the handicap if indeed the Ultima is the aim. They might have Aintree or even the Scottish National in mind. I really don't know.

Or maybe tomorrow is "it".

Either way, I want to have him covered and at 33/1 the outlay doesn't have to be painful. He will be one of several bets in the race, odds permitting, and they look like permitting :)
 
Euronymous said:
We need a thread for 2022. I've had two long shot pokes at the 2022 Festival already.
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Me too as it happens Euro. Not all fit this thread but these are the bets I have for 2022 so far:

Sir Gerhard Bumper and Any Race 22’ 33/1
Shishkin Champion Chase 22’ 14/1
Shishkin Arkle and Champion Chase 22’ 14/1
Gaillard du Mesnil 16/1 RSA
Bob Ollinger 25/1 RSA
Energumene 25/1 Ryanair
Envoi Allen Marsh and Gold Cup 22’ 28/1
Envoi Allen Gold Cup 22’ 14/1
Monkfish RSA and 22’ Gold Cup 33/1
Shishkin 22' Champ Chase/Envoi Allen 22' Gold Cup 225/1
Shishkin 22' Champ Chase/Monkfish 22' Gold Cup 200/1

Slim will have a complete breakdown whe he sees these tying up money! :cool:

So what else has everyone else got so far?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've gone in again on Young Wolf 33/1 for tomorrow's big handicap at Kempton.

Once you take the Irish horses into account he'll probably need at least 20 above him to drop out in order to make the cut off his current mark so they might feel he needs to go up the handicap if indeed the Ultima is the aim. They might have Aintree or even the Scottish National in mind. I really don't know.

Or maybe tomorrow is "it".

Either way, I want to have him covered and at 33/1 the outlay doesn't have to be painful. He will be one of several bets in the race, odds permitting, and they look like permitting :)
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Have I stumbled on to one here?

Now generally 14/1 and 18s tops. Can't be a negative.
 

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