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What are you backing Today? Part 2

WARNING AFTERTIME: I just had 5 quid on Red Risk in Running at 17.5 down the back straight.......won 77.16p so having 35 quid ew on Fiddlerontheroof in the Hennessy
 
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Desert Orchid said:
In WOA's absence, I've taken a small each-way bet on Petit Tonnerre at 14/1. I'll settle for a place return.
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A wee bit unlucky?

I thought it lost probably as much ground (and momentum) as it was beaten by when shuffled back on the home turn. Needless to say, Nicholls put everyone away by telling everybody the winner would definitely need the run. I had him on the same rating as PT.
 
I thought he was very good carrying a huge weight first time out bar one fence where he was a bit awkward at. He would need to improve another 7-10lbs or so to have a chance in the King George.

It's possible he can find improvement.
 
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I'm on at 12s for the Gold Cup but thought he had a huge task in front of him today in what, on my figures, was a very hot handicap.

On my figures he had to run a good 12lbs better than his novice mark, which I wasn't convinced he could do first time up but he did and is right in the GC picture with more improvement this season likely.

In that sense he did 'what he had to do', ie improve a lot, but he wasn't entitled to get naywhere near the places on his bare rating.
 
Southwell

1.00 Rakhine Star started off with Gordon Elliott in Ireland then changed to a small stable and won a respectable 4/17 starts over hurdles. His last run was his last win and best run to date albeit quite a while ago. He looks like a horse with a bit of talent at this level, and as a nine year old going on ten year old having his first start over fences, I'm hopeful he is running tomorrow having been well schooled and not just running for the experience and fresh air so to speak. I've taken a chance at double digit odds .
 
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The Beginners' Hollow Games won at Navan looked a very interesting race at the time with loads of potential behind the front two (for context the same race 12 months before was won by Buddy Rich from Ballyadam with the 3rd 70+l behind) and Get My Drift who was third that day, and Carrig Sam (8th) are the first to test the form tomorrow at Punchy. Ive taken 7/2 about the former.
 
Marb said:
Southwell

1.00 Rakhine Star started off with Gordon Elliott in Ireland then changed to a small stable and won a respectable 4/17 starts over hurdles. His last run was his last win and best run to date albeit quite a while ago. He looks like a horse with a bit of talent at this level, and as a nine year old going on ten year old having his first start over fences, I'm hopeful he is running tomorrow having been well schooled and not just running for the experience and fresh air so to speak. I've taken a chance at double digit odds .
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I backed him at 14s last night he placed in third at SP 50/1.
A very nice run. Glad I got best odds guaranteed. What a difference.
 
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Nice, marb. Come the end of the year, I have a feeling your selection posts will be vying for 'Hall of Fame for the year' position.
 
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Good luck with that Reet. I got to ask you, what the fook are you doing up at this time?;) I don't sleep right myself now. I find the early hours are my best ones, which is a bit weird. You will now probably reply and say you work nights:D I think though you are bit near my age, just guessing at that, I am mid 60s. I am a retired person now, or..in other words...an old fook:D
 
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One I've been waiting for a while runs today in the 2.55 at Lingfield today and I think she is very well handicapped.
First Snowfall was always a filly who was noted as being a good work horse for Saeed Bin Suroor, but she had problems and in the end she was sold before she debuted to Archie Watson. It's been no secret his horses weren't right in the second half of the season, but they have slowly been coming back to form and I think this filly is very well handicapped off 57 today. She ran to 73 for me on debut, and 65 next time, but her form tailed off afterwards. She has shaped better on the all weather the last twice running to 63 off 67 and 59 off 60, but she is dropped to 57 now and runs in the basement level of a 0-60 today, where the top weight is rated 57, so in theory it is no stronger than any 0-55 and by Dubawi she should improve for the step up to 12f for the first time, and the way she ran on over 9.4f last time, certainly suggested she wanted a trip. Luke Morris is back on today and at 7/1 with SkyBet who offer 5 places on the race, I think there is some cracking each way value about a filly down in class, with a yard coming back into form, and running off a mark which she has figured at least 10lb better than in the last 12 months.
 
EC21 said:
Good luck with that Reet. I got to ask you, what the fook are you doing up at this time?;) I don't sleep right myself now. I find the early hours are my best ones, which is a bit weird. You will now probably reply and say you work nights:D I think though you are bit near my age, just guessing at that, I am mid 60s. I am a retired person now, or..in other words...an old fook:D
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Sleep is time wasted imo, and it's quiet and peaceful in the middle of the night.
I'm an older fook than you.:)
 
Flame said:
One I've been waiting for a while runs today in the 2.55 at Lingfield today and I think she is very well handicapped.
First Snowfall was always a filly who was noted as being a good work horse for Saeed Bin Suroor, but she had problems and in the end she was sold before she debuted to Archie Watson. It's been no secret his horses weren't right in the second half of the season, but they have slowly been coming back to form and I think this filly is very well handicapped off 57 today. She ran to 73 for me on debut, and 65 next time, but her form tailed off afterwards. She has shaped better on the all weather the last twice running to 63 off 67 and 59 off 60, but she is dropped to 57 now and runs in the basement level of a 0-60 today, where the top weight is rated 57, so in theory it is no stronger than any 0-55 and by Dubawi she should improve for the step up to 12f for the first time, and the way she ran on over 9.4f last time, certainly suggested she wanted a trip. Luke Morris is back on today and at 7/1 with SkyBet who offer 5 places on the race, I think there is some cracking each way value about a filly down in class, with a yard coming back into form, and running off a mark which she has figured at least 10lb better than in the last 12 months.
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Very good pick Flame. Looking at the past form of this one, she could have a stone in hand here. She was same price as Rechecher early on in her runs, that one is a solid 70+ horse. I will have a few bob on early on this, but will be watching the market, Watson horses generally have support imo, if it drifts then I suppose another day is it. Currently pennies at 11.0, see if it shortens through the day, if I can stay awake:D
 
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Flame said:
One I've been waiting for a while runs today in the 2.55 at Lingfield today and I think she is very well handicapped.
First Snowfall was always a filly who was noted as being a good work horse for Saeed Bin Suroor, but she had problems and in the end she was sold before she debuted to Archie Watson. It's been no secret his horses weren't right in the second half of the season, but they have slowly been coming back to form and I think this filly is very well handicapped off 57 today. She ran to 73 for me on debut, and 65 next time, but her form tailed off afterwards. She has shaped better on the all weather the last twice running to 63 off 67 and 59 off 60, but she is dropped to 57 now and runs in the basement level of a 0-60 today, where the top weight is rated 57, so in theory it is no stronger than any 0-55 and by Dubawi she should improve for the step up to 12f for the first time, and the way she ran on over 9.4f last time, certainly suggested she wanted a trip. Luke Morris is back on today and at 7/1 with SkyBet who offer 5 places on the race, I think there is some cracking each way value about a filly down in class, with a yard coming back into form, and running off a mark which she has figured at least 10lb better than in the last 12 months.
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GL. Flame.
Reckon she'll improve for the step up in trip,around this sharp track - on breeding.
 
I like Galop de Chasse in the 2.35 at Exeter. Gunsight Ridge, a very well handicapped horse imo, beat him at Aintree early last month but the selection stayed on well and this step up in trip should suit, he went straight into my tracker and I think 6/1 is ok. Fear Shakem Up'Arry a wee bit but the fav is well opposable. He emptied quickly on his first start and Harry Fry for me is like the jumps version of Johnston in that I always want to take his shorties on.
 
I’ve been seeing Shakemupharry entered all over the place (at least a half-dozen times) these last few weeks, and reckon it’s probably noteworthy that this is the race they’ve chosen to get him going, Euro. Tongue-tie added today too.

I haven’t backed him yet, but probably will this afternoon. Good luck.
 
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