What are you backing Today? Part 2

Big thing were expected of Bothwell Bridge after he hacked up at Sandown in a Novice Chase.

So much so he has been heavily backed 3 times since but failed miserably, on each occasion,
with a variety of excuses, like unsafe ground, burst a blood vessel and a fence got in his way:lol:

Well he was available at 10/1 on the machine but a steady flow of cash and 7k later he's now at 7's mostly 6's

Looks like it's win or burst as there's very little money for him in the EW and place markets
 
Haydock

3.35 Good Boy Bobby put in three excellent runs over fences last season.
I reckon the best of those was at Newcastle in the Rehearsal Chase when he was actually second to an excellent yardstick and the former Hennessy Gold Cup second placer, Aye Right.

Dingo Dollar was a long way back in third and he recently won at Aintree. It's worth taking a chance on Good Boy Bobby tomorrow although there are a couple of younger unexposed pretenders at the head of the betting.

I'll take Good Boy Bobby to carry the big weight to victory here, off a mark of 146, which I actually think is fair enough based on what he's done. It will take a really good performance from one of the others to prevail if Bobby is on his a-game I reckon.
 
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Punchestown

3.23 I knew Ballyglass Beauty was running this weekend but had it in my head he was running on Sunday. Anyway, he goes again in this race tomorrow and the furlong shorter than the last days trip when he just faded before the finish over 3M1.5F could make all the difference.

He had good form before that, winning and placing, and I just think he could be very well handicapped off a rating of just 94. He's not the only one with a good chance but still at 14/1 or thereabouts he looks great each way value to me and I hope he can run well.
 
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It's true we win/lose live/die etc by our decisions and I'm usually phlegmatic enough not to get too bothered one way or another because they're my decisions and I'm happy for the main part that they were the right decisions at the time.

But every now and again I do get quite hard on myself. The 1.15 today at Haydock is one such example. I wrote on Thursday night:

L’Eau Du Sud’s (7/4) rating is a direct conversion from his French mark but it would seem the BHA uses a conversion factor of only 2. I’m open to the idea that they might be wrong. In any event, this might not be a particularly competitive race but I’m not sure I want to get involved at short odds. Only one firm has priced the race up so I can wait but I’m more interested in Benson (11/1) who is looking on the way back following a change of stable. I’ll wait until the majority of bookies price the race up before getting involved and hope someone goes 14/1.

There's only one non-runner, which was around the 12s-14s mark, so what the fvck has happened to bring Benson in to 3/1 tops??

I was busy yesterday and didn't check any of the Haydock odds - mainly because of the doubt over certain runners - otherwise I might have seen when the move started and been able to act.

I need to leave this race alone now. I can't bring myself to take 3/1 when I could have got 11s.

Edit - I see I've also missed the better prices on Thursday for Rapper (16/1) and Botox Has (14/1) but I've backed today at [acceptably] shorter.
 
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I have mild suspicion of Hitman’s temperament (thought he ducked in a bit in the Old Roan), and will take him on today with a small-stakes sporting wager on Itchy Feet, who would gove him a race if managing to recapture his old form.
 
Grasshopper said:
I have mild suspicion of Hitman’s temperament (thought he ducked in a bit in the Old Roan), and will take him on today with a small-stakes sporting wager on Itchy Feet, who would gove him a race if managing to recapture his old form.
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I took 11/4 w/o Hitman.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Edit - I see I've also missed the better prices on Thursday for Rapper (16/1) and Botox Has (14/1) but I've backed today at [acceptably] shorter.
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Lovely ride by the kid ensures a tidy profit on the day. I've also got the double with Rapper still alive. Must check if they're offering me a cashout...
 
Desert Orchid said:
It's true we win/lose live/die etc by our decisions and I'm usually phlegmatic enough not to get too bothered one way or another because they're my decisions and I'm happy for the main part that they were the right decisions at the time.

But every now and again I do get quite hard on myself. The 1.15 today at Haydock is one such example. I wrote on Thursday night:



Edit - I see I've also missed the better prices on Thursday for Rapper (16/1) and BOTAX HAS(14/1) but I've backed today at [acceptably] shorter.
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Nice winner D.
 
Well, I got the place portion of the double up (10/1) so I'm not going to sniff at that. I don't think they'd have offered me the equivalent as a cashout. The place did look pretty forlorn for a long way.
 
Friday, Nwb 1.55 - Camprond 13/2 - I think this is a very generous price. On my figures he was the best of these over hurdles so, with normal improvement for taking to fences, he should arguably be favourite for this. I'd be disappointed if he hadn't been intensively schooled following his first fence exit last week.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, Nwb 1.55 - Camprond 13/2 - I think this is a very generous price. On my figures he was the best of these over hurdles so, with normal improvement for taking to fences, he should arguably be favourite for this. I'd be disappointed if he hadn't been intensively schooled following his first fence exit last week.
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Looked one to be wary of over fences from what I saw. Not exactly bred for the job.
 
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