The 2025 Grand National

[Alex]

Cheers, I have just had a nibble on Bravesmansgame at 50/1, I originally backed him at 33/1.

At this stage I think 365 are just balancing their book, they do get to know when a horse is not going to run, and fair play to them they took The Real Whacker out of their market before anyone else did.

I would be more concerned with horses that our boosted closer to the race than at this stage.

I have also just had another nibble go on Royal Pagalille with Power, just because 365 have him at 66/1 whilst Power 125/1 both NRNB.

 

[Outsider]

If anyone is interested, Bet365 are offering boosts on Bravemansgame (50/1) Minella Cocooner (28/1) and I am Maximus (10/1) at the moment.

I am always suspicious of boosts as I think they know something I don’t, but have backed the first of these again.

The dreaded bet365 boost.

 

[Might And Power]

The 33's Vanillier ( now 14's gen ) is looking fair value now following the WD of the Gold Cup winner - and I'm happy enough that the 66 for Broadway Boy will be bigger than his odds will be on the day.

I still think the official rating required to get a run will be around the 146 mark

I am looking to add Monbeg Genius 40/1 to my bets EW 5 Places with Paddy

and possibly a couple of others by raceday - it all depends on the odds / value available.

I have just added a fourth pick to my portfolio - have looked ahead for the weather forecast and predict going likely to be no worse than the slower side of good.

Perceval Legallois EW 14/1 ( 5 Places ) & 12/1 with 6 Places ..... 1pt EW each

 

[pawras]

Nearer the time I'll post detailed stuff but unlike some of the other 'Nationals' the Aintree Grand National doesn't have any good trial race trends imo.
The best of a bad bunch for runners go to following Aintree Grand National for ew bets are

Fairyhouse Bobbyjo Chase Stakes 3m 1f 88y Grade3 in Feb
Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Stakes 3m 5f 56y C2 in March

 

[Might And Power]

Nearer the time I'll post detailed stuff but unlike some of the other 'Nationals' the Aintree Grand National doesn't have any good trial race trends imo.
The best of a bad bunch for runners go to following Aintree Grand National for ew bets are

Fairyhouse Bobbyjo Chase Stakes 3m 1f 88y Grade3 in Feb
Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Stakes 3m 5f 56y C2 in March

I used to update the trends each year, age - official rating etc for the past 20 years, but now the race has been cut to 34 runners it alters matters somewhat. The race is attracting a better quality field and you will need to be rated 146/147 this year just to get a place in the line up. Looks likely to be no worse than the slower side of ''Good '' underfoot - safe good jumping ground....................... it's not the same race these days.

 

[Desert Orchid]

The word 'soft' WILL appear in the going.

They will water the bejaysus out of the ground.

 

[Might And Power]

The word 'soft' WILL appear in the going.

They will water the bejaysus out of the ground.

They will water to keep the going safe, but there is not huge amounts of rain forecast up until raceday. The going will be Good to Soft on the Thursday and probably on the Friday, they may well declare it G/S for Saturday but it is certain to be nearer Good ...... the genuine SOFT ground runners may well be taken off their feet

 

[Jayhawk]

Nearer the time I'll post detailed stuff but unlike some of the other 'Nationals' the Aintree Grand National doesn't have any good trial race trends imo.
The best of a bad bunch for runners go to following Aintree Grand National for ew bets are

Fairyhouse Bobbyjo Chase Stakes 3m 1f 88y Grade3 in Feb
Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Stakes 3m 5f 56y C2 in March

Last week I went back through the Grand National winners from 2005 onwards, and noted that both Hedgehunter and I Am Maximus had won the Bobbyjo in their races prior to Aintree which could be a pointer to Nick Rockett this year.
In the 19 GNs from 2005, six horses had won their previous race, four had come second, and two third. Nearly all of those would have been after the weights were announced.
Many Clouds can be excused a 6th in the Gold Cup, and similarly Noble Yeats and Comply Or Die ( 9th and 7th respectively in the Ultima or its equivalent).

 

[pawras]

Last week I went back through the Grand National winners from 2005 onwards, and noted that both Hedgehunter and I Am Maximus had won the Bobbyjo in their races prior to Aintree which could be a pointer to Nick Rockett this year.
In the 19 GNs from 2005, six horses had won their previous race, four had come second, and two third. Nearly all of those would have been after the weights were announced.
Many Clouds can be excused a 6th in the Gold Cup, and similarly Noble Yeats and Comply Or Die ( 9th and 7th respectively in the Ultima or its equivalent).

since 2000 , 61 horses have come from the Bobbyjo , 2 have won and 10 have placed

 

[Might And Power]

Last week I went back through the Grand National winners from 2005 onwards, and noted that both Hedgehunter and I Am Maximus had won the Bobbyjo in their races prior to Aintree which could be a pointer to Nick Rockett this year.
In the 19 GNs from 2005, six horses had won their previous race, four had come second, and two third. Nearly all of those would have been after the weights were announced.
Many Clouds can be excused a 6th in the Gold Cup, and similarly Noble Yeats and Comply Or Die ( 9th and 7th respectively in the Ultima or its equivalent).

Over the years the Irish National has produced the Aintree winner a few times
I Am Maximus
Numbersixvalverde
Bobbyjo

All spring to mind ........

Irish National winners to be placed at Aintree include Ebony Jane and Burrows Saint to name just a couple

Intense Raffles won the Irish version last Spring

 

[Alex]

Last year's result as a whole came as a complete shock to me, it said to me I needed to rethink my thinking.

This might have been just been a one off occurence, but if it was not, then the only thing that matters now is the quality of the horses themselves.

These are the horses that have either won a Grade One (non handicap) race or competed in one in the last 6 months.

I Am Maximus
Grangeclare West
Hewick
Bravesmansgame
Minnella Cocooner
L'homme Presse
Minnella Indo
Capodanno
Royal Pagalille
Conflated

 

[Desert Orchid]

They will water to keep the going safe, but there is not huge amounts of rain forecast up until raceday. The going will be Good to Soft on the Thursday and probably on the Friday, they may well declare it G/S for Saturday but it is certain to be nearer Good ...... the genuine SOFT ground runners may well be taken off their feet

I would LOVE to see a genuine good ground National but it just won't happen. They're too afraid of the animal rights people.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Last week I went back through the Grand National winners from 2005 onwards, and noted that both Hedgehunter and I Am Maximus had won the Bobbyjo in their races prior to Aintree which could be a pointer to Nick Rockett this year.
In the 19 GNs from 2005, six horses had won their previous race, four had come second, and two third. Nearly all of those would have been after the weights were announced.

That would probably coincide with the change to no penalties after the weights were announced.

It's a change that I personally have welcomed as it's made a race that has always been easy to find the winner of even easier.

And Intense Raffles will be 15lbs better off with Nick Rockett for the Bobbyjo form, and reading the RP item yesterday it suggests IR wasn't even fit that day.

 

[pawras]

Over the years the Irish National has produced the Aintree winner a few times
I Am Maximus
Numbersixvalverde
Bobbyjo

All spring to mind ........

Irish National winners to be placed at Aintree include Ebony Jane and Burrows Saint to name just a couple

Intense Raffles won the Irish version last Spring

Last time I looked, since 2000 I counted 59 runners went from the Fairyhouse Irish Grand National to the following Aintree Grand National, 2 have won and 6 have placed. That includes 13 winners of the Fairyhouse Irish Grand National and only 1 has gone on to win the following Aintree Grand National.

 

[moehat]

I was put off thinking that Irish National winners would go on to win the Aintree version after thinking that Point Barrow was a racing certainty (was it the first fence he fell at?) and even advised a work colleagues not to back Silver Birch ( she had a birch tree in her garden).

 

[Desert Orchid]

Last time I looked, since 2000 I counted 59 runners went from the Fairyhouse Irish Grand National to the following Aintree Grand National, 2 have won and 6 have placed. That includes 13 winners of the Fairyhouse Irish Grand National and only 1 has gone on to win the following Aintree Grand National.

I think this illustrates the dangers of raw stats. I think we have to look at other factors beyond the mere fact that they ran in or won it.

How the handicapper treated it for the win/run.

How likely was it to stay the extra near-mile?

It's fate in the GN itself: did fall, get hampered, brought down, badly ridden?

 

[pawras]

I think this illustrates the dangers of raw stats. I think we have to look at other factors beyond the mere fact that they ran in or won it.

How the handicapper treated it for the win/run.

How likely was it to stay the extra near-mile?

It's fate in the GN itself: did fall, get hampered, brought down, badly ridden?

indeed there are a myriad of things to consider.

 

[Outsider]

Hewick is only 12/1.i can't believe that he's been backed with all bookies to make him that price.

 

[Might And Power]

Hewick is only 12/1.i can't believe that he's been backed with all bookies to make him that price.

Has shortened because of the likely ground conditions.

 

[Might And Power]

I would LOVE to see a genuine good ground National but it just won't happen. They're too afraid of the animal rights people.

From Tuesday through to Saturday of next week there is no rain forecast to fall, they can't over water in fear of producing tacky going - which may possibly be more dangerous than '' Good '' ....... they will aim for G/S on Thursday - will water in the evening to try and maintain that, but by Saturday I'm confident it is going to be no worse than the slower side of Good. Genuine mud lovers will only drift on the lead up to raceday.

 

[Alex]

From Tuesday through to Saturday of next week there is no rain forecast to fall, they can't over water in fear of producing tacky going - which may possibly be more dangerous than '' Good '' ....... they will aim for G/S on Thursday - will water in the evening to try and maintain that, but by Saturday I'm confident it is going to be no worse than the slower side of Good. Genuine mud lovers will only drift on the lead up to raceday.

I live in Liverpool, going back there on Wednesday. Believe me you can't predict the weather from day to day, let alone that far in advance .

 

[Might And Power]

I live in Liverpool, going back there on Wednesday. Believe me you can't predict the weather from day to day, let alone that far in advance .

I'm not that far myself - just over the other side of the Mersey. Not long back home from there ........ the Going is currently '' Good to Soft '' ( soft in places ) ...... I'll be amazed if it doesn't dry up a little at least.

 

[Danny]

Hewick is only 12/1.i can't believe that he's been backed with all bookies to make him that price.

Saw an article where Shark said he would go off favourite I thought he was having a laugh but apparently that might be on. Surely they'll water his chances away ? Saying that how good does he need it, it's always difficult to tell what a horse has won on with regards their prior form with so many incorrect ground descriptions. It's hard when you don't keep track yourself like I used to at one time.

 

[archie]

they can't over water in fear of producing tacky going - which may possibly be more dangerous than '' Good '' ....... t

Sorry, I have to take issue with that. Every safety review that I remember has concluded that speed kills which is why they recommend:
- limiting field sizes. The bigger the field the faster the herd tries to go.
- requiring a certain level of experience in jockeys. Young bloods go for it with potentially catastrophic consequences.
- watering to produce good to soft. The quicker the going the quicker the horses can go. Also, the firmer the ground the more it may affect tendons and joints in NH types.I understand DO's longing for a good ground race and I've had good ground horses who have been badly inconvenienced by over-watering, but safety and perception of safety is important these days. I know that they started watering last week and I'm happy that they continue with the aim of having the word 'soft' somewhere in the going description. If nothing else it should promote grass growth to help cushion the ground as it dries out.

 

[Might And Power]

Sorry, I have to take issue with that. Every safety review that I remember has concluded that speed kills which is why they recommend:
- limiting field sizes. The bigger the field the faster the herd tries to go.
- requiring a certain level of experience in jockeys. Young bloods go for it with potentially catastrophic consequences.
- watering to produce good to soft. The quicker the going the quicker the horses can go. Also, the firmer the ground the more it may affect tendons and joints in NH types.I understand DO's longing for a good ground race and I've had good ground horses who have been badly inconvenienced by over-watering, but safety and perception of safety is important these days. I know that they started watering last week and I'm happy that they continue with the aim of having the word 'soft' somewhere in the going description. If nothing else it should promote grass growth to help cushion the ground as it dries out.

'' Good '' safe jumping ground is not dangerous, tacky going hinders jumping and is potentially worse ..... as I've said they will aim for G/S on Thursday, will most likely water that even to hopefully maintain G/S but with NO rain forecast it will be close to Good come Saturday. The Going certainly won't be Quick.