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The 2025 Should Be Odds-On Thread

I reckoned you must have thought that.

"She was favourite for the Arc at the end of last season." After Ascot, which was after the Arc. She became the new great white hope that day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I reckoned you must have thought that.

"She was favourite for the Arc at the end of last season." After Ascot, which was after the Arc. She became the new great white hope that day.
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She's still very prominent in the betting on Betfair for the Arc. That race is very interesting. I think Whirl is very good.
 
Yes, I'm convinced she was the best horse in the Oaks and she could well overtake Kalpana by October but I reckon there's too much between them at the moment with Kalpana very likely to have a 120+ in her locker.

In this race last year I put up Emily Upjohn at something like 7/2 as 'should be odds-on' only for Shoemark to get a rush of blood and kick too early giving the filly a chance to idle when clear and she was mugged by Bluestocking. That still hurts when I think about it :(
 
That was disappointing. Take Kalpana out and the race has gone pretty much to the ORs. I thought Kalpana would go and take Whirl with ease but the 3yo fought her off well. Hard to see Kalpana winning a G1 now unless it's a weak one.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That was disappointing. Take Kalpana out and the race has gone pretty much to the ORs. I thought Kalpana would go and take Whirl with ease but the 3yo fought her off well. Hard to see Kalpana winning a G1 now unless it's a weak one.
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The trip and the WFA told. Kalpanna ran with a lot of credit, she just needs 12f. Moore was always going to slow it mid race to give his filly the best chance.
 
Amazed so many sided with kalpana. Whirl and Minnie hawk are obviously 2 very good fillies. Whirl won the musidora easily and has improved leaps and bounds. I wonder if she will end up at ascot for the champions day.
 
Coach miguel said:
Amazed so many sided with kalpana. Whirl and Minnie hawk are obviously 2 very good fillies. Whirl won the musidora easily and has improved leaps and bounds. I wonder if she will end up at ascot for the champions day.
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Agreed. Adele bang on this morning too.
The 2nd has run a good race. Her backers shouldn't be disappointed. She ran a good race.
 
My view was that the Oaks form isn't up to much and I stand by that.

Look at the third and fourth and Whirl has run to form or improved only marginally. Kalpana, for me, hasn't run to form. Maybe wasn't fully letting herself down on the ground, maybe the trip was too sharp for her but on that form Whirl would just about have won the Tattersalls Gold Cup and I'm struggling with that.
 
The proximity of the 3rd and 4th doesn't reflect the superiority of the front two. Running on when the race was done.
Kalpana was going to be vulnerable against Whirl over this trip.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My view was that the Oaks form isn't up to much and I stand by that.

Look at the third and fourth and Whirl has run to form or improved only marginally. Kalpana, for me, hasn't run to form. Maybe wasn't fully letting herself down on the ground, maybe the trip was too sharp for her but on that form Whirl would just about have won the Tattersalls Gold Cup and I'm struggling with that.
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Whirl had a hard race in the oaks so I wouldn't read the form too literally. Ryan just had to tough it out over a distance that suited whirl more than kalpana. I think the oaks form is decent but as usual we will see as the season goes on.
 
My impression was that Whirl outstayed Kalpana. I know, the trip was only 10 furlongs, but I thought Kalpana faltered at the furlong pole and was tying up after that.
 
Depending on how the eclipse goes whirl may end up in the juddmonte imho. Jury out on whether she is as effective over 12f although the wootton bassetts seem to defy normal rules of breeding.
 
I thought when he was a 3yo that it was his particular misfortune that the Belmont was over 1m2f at Saratoga and not 1m4f at Belmont Park.

Like I said, I think he's a cracking horse - IF they go very hard up front over 1m2f, as I think they did in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic.

I'll certainly be interested in him if he goes for it again and if he is a price later in the year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, the Curragh 3.30 - Kalpana 6/4 - has a healthy advantage over the field on ORs and likely to come on for her reappearance run as well after missing her intended comeback at York due to a dirty scope. She was favourite for the Arc at the end of last season.
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If she'd run to today's level in either of her two races this season she'd have hacked up. Feels like one that got away.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If she'd run to today's level in either of her two races this season she'd have hacked up. Feels like one that got away.
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You are 100 per cent incorrect -Whirl was top class that day and Kalpana had a very difficult job that day conceding her a serious amount of weight.I would be surprised if Whirl didn't win the Nassau and I could see her being a strong fancy at the Breeders Cup.
 

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