Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

I've looked through Saturdays card.

I'll stick with Rebels Romance in the big one. I feel a few people still don't rate this horse, yet he keeps delivering, with his excellent strike rate at the highest level. Fair play to Auguste Rodin. This should be a really good race.

I see Orazio steadily shortening for the International. If its good to firm, I do sort of wonder why Charlie Hills didn't run in the Bunbury Cup on good ground, when the horse apparantly is better with ease in the ground. That said, I've never seen a horse make the ground up in a Wokingham over six furlongs that he did. My gut is telling me it was almost too good to be true, and I'm questioning whether he can reproduce it. Why was this the target, assuming he's declared tomorrow, and not the Bunbury? Did Orazio have a hard race at Royal Ascot? I'm dying to see a quote of Charlie Hills.

Which leads me to Fresh. I still haven't forgotten those wins a couple seasons ago, including his win in this actual race off a 7lb higher mark. Strictly on that form he's now a few pound better off with Bless Him. He's been frustrating since, but could win this on the type of mark he's on, with a decent bit of recent form. I've written down Orazio and Fresh, with a plan to back both to small stakes in my separate yankees come this Saturday. I couldn't put anyone off Aalto though who did win the Bunbury impressively. He'll need to be a group horse in the making to land this aswell so soon after though.

Over at York, we have another conundrum. I fancied Alflaila at Royal Ascot and backed it accordingly. As DO said at the time, the horse travelled so sweetly but just emptied out or didn't follow it through. While on ratings he clearly has his chance, at the price I think I'm taking him on with King's Gambit, who I was so visually impressed with on his Newbury win. He's still on a very upward curve.

A good days racing it is on Saturday. I'm just trying to clear my thoughts really. Whether it's a 8 runner race at York, or a 30 runner handicap at Ascot, how much can punters possibly weigh up?!!! Go with the gut?
 
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Euronymous said:
Taken a bit of a flyer on Lake Forest for the Lennox. He ran a very good race in the Jubilee considering it was his debut run of the year and I found it interesting that he's not in the July Cup. Stakes are low because the Maurice de Gheest is the Sunday after the Glorious meeting and that could be the plan but Tony Bloom part owns the horse and Goodwood is his local isn't it? He was very strong at the line at Ascot, and his pedigree suggests 6 is his very minimum trip.
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Haggas is a top class trainer but unless the plan is Hackwood/Maurice de Gheest I don't get why he's been taken out of the Lennox, the race is ripe for the plucking now Haatem is out. English Oak is unproven in group races, Kinross might be on the decline. I actually think Tiber Flow has a chance and is double figures.
 
Nicky just gave another glowing update on Constitution Hill and you can still have 9/4 about him for the Champion Hurdle. I suppose the main reason is some people actually think Lossiemouth could beat him. quite frankly she would think she had gone into orbit if she does meet him. She has beat nothing and I'd be surprised if she turns out better than Statesman....when Constitution Hill wins his next race he'll be 4/6 at best trust me😜
 
Arc - Melo Melo 100/1 - she runs in the Lillie Langtry (G2) on Saturday and I'll be backing her for it. She was favourite for the Vermeille (G1) last year but arguably bounced after winning the Royalieu (G1) and looks like she might be getting brought along gradually with the Arc in mind for Goliath's trainer. I just want her onside at big odds in case she does go and win at the weekend. Had she won the Vermeille - she'd beaten the Vermeille winner the time before - she'd have been single figures for the Arc but Wathnan bought her.
 
I have some thoughts/possible bets for the Ebor meeting:
Voltigeur - I want to be against the AOB boats in this race and favour Matsuri who ran well at the Curragh despite not the best of trips through the race. 6/1 at this stage isn't that great but he's the type I'll stick in doubles with tracker's this week who are a bit short to back outright.

Clipper - I want to back New Image in this, he has scope to improve over a mile given he's a Frankel but I worry he might not get in.

International/Yorkshire Oaks/Nunthorpe - the three big Group 1s not really seeing much of an angle. Tiffany each way in the fillies race maybe but she is entered up in a race in Ireland the week before the meeting. Economics and White Birch would be of possible interest in the Juddmonte but who knows if they'll turn up - I've backed the latter for the Arc so hopefully not.

City of York - I've already backed Lake Forest for this. Audience is fav and I'm convinced he's not that good, same with Kinross. LF has huge scope over 7f given how he finished both at the Royal Meeting and behind Elite Status last time - I wanted him to run in the Maurice de Gheest but I'm glad he avoided Lazzat now.

Ebor - Epic Poet is still backable at 12s, I have 20s. I think he's very solid for the race.
 
Added Calandagan for the Juddmonte. York should suit and City of Troy is ridiculously short. I mean, he's better than Auguste Rodin but not by much.
 
Think you can get 50s for Orbaan in the Clipper at York next week.
No luck at Goodwood. Handicapped again to win a decent pot.
Hope he gets beat today.
 
Euronymous said:
I have some thoughts/possible bets for the Ebor meeting:


City of York - I've already backed Lake Forest for this. Audience is fav and I'm convinced he's not that good, same with Kinross. LF has huge scope over 7f given how he finished both at the Royal Meeting and behind Elite Status last time - I wanted him to run in the Maurice de Gheest but I'm glad he avoided Lazzat now.
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Was very worried when Haggas entered Lake Forest for the Hungerford but he's not declared him. Full steam ahead for York and even though his price has gone a bit (backed at 10s) I still think he's a good bet.
 
bookies were unimpressed. He remains 8/1 and the pushed the Godolphin horse out rather than cut him. I would be cashing in before Aiden unleashed a better one.
 
I've been unwell for days. Just laying in bed, it's either the cold (11/4), the flu ((13/2), covid (15/2) or some other unidentified yet hideous illness (15/8)

So I've had a look at Saturday and punted a little ante post E/W patent. The final declarations will be tomorrow, so as always, half the battle will be to see my fancies in the final decs.

First up is Mr Baloo, who sits on number 19 in the handicap, needing three to come out, in Sandown's 1.50. He's been off the track for three months or thereabouts, so may well have had a setback you'd have thought, but his form this season was interesting. He's a horse who did some winning in class fours when being both held up and then making all at Kempton, so he's not one dimensional, in terms of his running style, although for Sandown this Saturday, the main hope would be he's firing on all cylinders at home, after his break off the track, and will improve again for the step up in grade. I've taken the chance ante post, just in the event the race cuts up a bit and he may shorten nearer the time, because he'll have a nice racing weight and could be a plot. But obviously I'm just trying to second guess Hannon Jnr at the moment, and there's a fair chance he might not even run. There's no jockey booked up yet either, so if I see this I'd be more confident. After three months off the track, I'm hopeful his trainer has entered him for this race with every intention of running him. Lets hope so.

My second pick is Fairbanks in the listed race at Chester. The favourite is Hamish who is clear on ratings, but I've no idea if he's an intended runner, as he has usually been plying his trade at a higher level. So go on Haggas, do my good self a favour, take him out, and open the proverbial can of punting worms that will undoubtably follow. The second fav Caius Chorister has been a bit disappointing of late, being way too keen and pulling hard at Ascot. I wouldn't be backing her for this, though on her form she'd obviously have her chance. In any event, Fairbanks is still on an upward curve. He had no luck in running in the Ebor. He was hampered, denied a clear run and short of room. I guess whether Andrew Balding runs him here depends on how he's come out of York. He does also hold a Irish Cesarewitch entry at the end of September. I'm hoping I get the rub of the green at tomorrows declaration stage. I think Fairbanks is the type to run well in a listed race with fewer runners. We know he's better than his Ebor effort, as the horse he beat at Newmarket, Oneforthegutter, franked the form when third in the Ebor. Anyway, my main worry is will Balding skip the race altogether and wait for another valuable handicap. We'll see.

My third selection is James Webb in the 3:00 1M2F handicap at Sandown. He's by American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare. He did it really nicely the last day, in maiden company at Yarmouth. He showed plenty speed, and the 'making all' quality of always a good attribute for a track like Sandown, where often very few get involved in handicaps from the rear end. He's solid in the market at around 7/1, so I just hope to see him declared tomorrow to line up on Saturday. He could be a blot on the handicap.

Those were my three for an ante post each way patent on Saturday.

They may all be taken out tomorrow, so having played it blind, so to speak, plus not knowing running intentions, I'll count myself lucky if all three get declared. That said, I reckon all three have a good squeak, so I thought I'd try and preview the experiment on this thread.

Trust me, if I was here to spout serious shite, I would have gone on the Trump/Harris thread!
 
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Cambridgeshire. I'm a little surprised Holloway Boy is as big as 33s (WH ).
His consistency his probably not helping his handicap mark, but given good, good to firm ground, he must go well. 33/1 looks generous to me.
 
Marb said:
I've been unwell for days. Just laying in bed, it's either the cold (11/4), the flu ((13/2), covid (15/2) or some other unidentified yet hideous illness (15/8)

So I've had a look at Saturday and punted a little ante post E/W patent. The final declarations will be tomorrow, so as always, half the battle will be to see my fancies in the final decs.

First up is Mr Baloo, who sits on number 19 in the handicap, needing three to come out, in Sandown's 1.50. He's been off the track for three months or thereabouts, so may well have had a setback you'd have thought, but his form this season was interesting. He's a horse who did some winning in class fours when being both held up and then making all at Kempton, so he's not one dimensional, in terms of his running style, although for Sandown this Saturday, the main hope would be he's firing on all cylinders at home, after his break off the track, and will improve again for the step up in grade. I've taken the chance ante post, just in the event the race cuts up a bit and he may shorten nearer the time, because he'll have a nice racing weight and could be a plot. But obviously I'm just trying to second guess Hannon Jnr at the moment, and there's a fair chance he might not even run. There's no jockey booked up yet either, so if I see this I'd be more confident. After three months off the track, I'm hopeful his trainer has entered him for this race with every intention of running him. Lets hope so.

My second pick is Fairbanks in the listed race at Chester. The favourite is Hamish who is clear on ratings, but I've no idea if he's an intended runner, as he has usually been plying his trade at a higher level. So go on Haggas, do my good self a favour, take him out, and open the proverbial can of punting worms that will undoubtably follow. The second fav Caius Chorister has been a bit disappointing of late, being way too keen and pulling hard at Ascot. I wouldn't be backing her for this, though on her form she'd obviously have her chance. In any event, Fairbanks is still on an upward curve. He had no luck in running in the Ebor. He was hampered, denied a clear run and short of room. I guess whether Andrew Balding runs him here depends on how he's come out of York. He does also hold a Irish Cesarewitch entry at the end of September. I'm hoping I get the rub of the green at tomorrows declaration stage. I think Fairbanks is the type to run well in a listed race with fewer runners. We know he's better than his Ebor effort, as the horse he beat at Newmarket, Oneforthegutter, franked the form when third in the Ebor. Anyway, my main worry is will Balding skip the race altogether and wait for another valuable handicap. We'll see.

My third selection is James Webb in the 3:00 1M2F handicap at Sandown. He's by American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare. He did it really nicely the last day, in maiden company at Yarmouth. He showed plenty speed, and the 'making all' quality of always a good attribute for a track like Sandown, where often very few get involved in handicaps from the rear end. He's solid in the market at around 7/1, so I just hope to see him declared tomorrow to line up on Saturday. He could be a blot on the handicap.

Those were my three for an ante post each way patent on Saturday.

They may all be taken out tomorrow, so having played it blind, so to speak, plus not knowing running intentions, I'll count myself lucky if all three get declared. That said, I reckon all three have a good squeak, so I thought I'd try and preview the experiment on this thread.

Trust me, if I was here to spout serious shite, I would have gone on the Trump/Harris thread!
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Still no jockeys booked for any of these.

I feel this experiment might be a huge failure.
 
Marb said:
Still no jockeys booked for any of these.

I feel this experiment might be a huge failure.
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I hope not but kind of know the feeling.

Back in the day (1989/90), I was signed off work a month at a time for six full months. Needing something to occupy my brain I intensified my studying but I also subscribed to the Timeform Black Book, hoping it would help me take shortcuts to horses' preferences as well as comparing their figures to my own.

I started backing one or two horses pretty much every day. I had built up a fair bank, around £300, on my Saturday punting with my own figures to stakes of anywhere between 50p and £2, but within about six weeks it was down to less than £100 so I abandoned Timeform altogether and focused back on the Saturday/festival stuff. By the end of the six months I'd got the bank back up beyond the £300.

That was when I decided Timeform, for all their computer and manpower, were no better than anybody else.

That's not to say I don't respect them. I respect all the financial, technical and human investment into analysing races and coming up with ratings but without some deeper appreciation of the other variables at play they need treating with caution.

I hope you don't end losing as heavily as I did, Marb.

All the best for a speedy recovery (y)
 
Cheers. DO.

Oisin is booked to ride at Sandown. Probably not a good sign for Fairbanks? What was I thinking though, backing a horse that only ran a week ago in the Ebor. There was always only a slim chance he'd run at Chester.

I don't think Stoute is going to declare James Webb now either. It's a big step in grade for a horse who just won his maiden, albeit in good fashion.

As for the Hannon horse, he had that break off the track. I feel he'll be pulled out tomorrow.

Ah well, Nevermind. Seemed like a good idea at the time.
 
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Marb said:
I've been unwell for days. Just laying in bed, it's either the cold (11/4), the flu ((13/2), covid (15/2) or some other unidentified yet hideous illness (15/8)

So I've had a look at Saturday and punted a little ante post E/W patent. The final declarations will be tomorrow, so as always, half the battle will be to see my fancies in the final decs.

First up is Mr Baloo, who sits on number 19 in the handicap, needing three to come out, in Sandown's 1.50. He's been off the track for three months or thereabouts, so may well have had a setback you'd have thought, but his form this season was interesting. He's a horse who did some winning in class fours when being both held up and then making all at Kempton, so he's not one dimensional, in terms of his running style, although for Sandown this Saturday, the main hope would be he's firing on all cylinders at home, after his break off the track, and will improve again for the step up in grade. I've taken the chance ante post, just in the event the race cuts up a bit and he may shorten nearer the time, because he'll have a nice racing weight and could be a plot. But obviously I'm just trying to second guess Hannon Jnr at the moment, and there's a fair chance he might not even run. There's no jockey booked up yet either, so if I see this I'd be more confident. After three months off the track, I'm hopeful his trainer has entered him for this race with every intention of running him. Lets hope so.

My second pick is Fairbanks in the listed race at Chester. The favourite is Hamish who is clear on ratings, but I've no idea if he's an intended runner, as he has usually been plying his trade at a higher level. So go on Haggas, do my good self a favour, take him out, and open the proverbial can of punting worms that will undoubtably follow. The second fav Caius Chorister has been a bit disappointing of late, being way too keen and pulling hard at Ascot. I wouldn't be backing her for this, though on her form she'd obviously have her chance. In any event, Fairbanks is still on an upward curve. He had no luck in running in the Ebor. He was hampered, denied a clear run and short of room. I guess whether Andrew Balding runs him here depends on how he's come out of York. He does also hold a Irish Cesarewitch entry at the end of September. I'm hoping I get the rub of the green at tomorrows declaration stage. I think Fairbanks is the type to run well in a listed race with fewer runners. We know he's better than his Ebor effort, as the horse he beat at Newmarket, Oneforthegutter, franked the form when third in the Ebor. Anyway, my main worry is will Balding skip the race altogether and wait for another valuable handicap. We'll see.

My third selection is James Webb in the 3:00 1M2F handicap at Sandown. He's by American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare. He did it really nicely the last day, in maiden company at Yarmouth. He showed plenty speed, and the 'making all' quality of always a good attribute for a track like Sandown, where often very few get involved in handicaps from the rear end. He's solid in the market at around 7/1, so I just hope to see him declared tomorrow to line up on Saturday. He could be a blot on the handicap.

Those were my three for an ante post each way patent on Saturday.

They may all be taken out tomorrow, so having played it blind, so to speak, plus not knowing running intentions, I'll count myself lucky if all three get declared. That said, I reckon all three have a good squeak, so I thought I'd try and preview the experiment on this thread.

Trust me, if I was here to spout serious shite, I would have gone on the Trump/Harris thread!
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Well I've actually had a decent ante post result for a change. Fairbanks declared and David Probert on board, with the Fav Hamish scratched. Mr Baloo also declared with Pat Dobbs riding.

The Stoute horse was scratched, but given I thought all three would not run, I'll settle for this. Still a chance to turn in a profit.
 
Marb said:
Well I've actually had a decent ante post result for a change. Fairbanks declared and David Probert on board, with the Fav Hamish scratched. Mr Baloo also declared with Pat Dobbs riding.

The Stoute horse was scratched, but given I thought all three would not run, I'll settle for this. Still a chance to turn in a profit.
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I've backed Feel the Need in that 1.50 at 12s. Pat Dobbs is a neg on your horse.
 
Good luck fella, may the best man win and all that. I don't mind Dobbsy, surely he'll get the job done if the horse is good enough!
 
The filly called Spiritual who did me a good turn when I was at Sandown on Eclipse Day, also declared for Sandown again this Saturday I see.
Wish I'd included her instead of the one I had scratched now.
I'm as loyal as a serial adulterer.
 
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