Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

It's a poor enough Saturday but a couple of races have weak looking front ends. I can't have Democracy Dilemma enjoying the stiff finish at Beverley in the Bullet and Clarendon House is a non stayer even if he was to be trusted to break on time (something DD has failed to do as well this season.) I quite like Blue Storm at 6/1.

Marb's has already indicated his liking for Fairbanks in the listed race at Chester. I see the angle Caius Chorester is not gonna settle at a track like Chester but I'd be wary of the Mullins/Elliot animals.
 
Euronymous said:
It's a poor enough Saturday but a couple of races have weak looking front ends. I can't have Democracy Dilemma enjoying the stiff finish at Beverley in the Bullet and Clarendon House is a non stayer even if he was to be trusted to break on time (something DD has failed to do as well this season.) I quite like Blue Storm at 6/1.

Marb's has already indicated his liking for Fairbanks in the listed race at Chester. I see the angle Caius Chorester is not gonna settle at a track like Chester but I'd be wary of the Mullins/Elliot animals.
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Yeah couldn't have put it better myself.

Strong cases could be made for both the Irish horses. It's the sloppiest of all punting angles but I am purely hoping they don't run their best races.
 
Marb said:
I've been unwell for days. Just laying in bed, it's either the cold (11/4), the flu ((13/2), covid (15/2) or some other unidentified yet hideous illness (15/8)

So I've had a look at Saturday and punted a little ante post E/W patent. The final declarations will be tomorrow, so as always, half the battle will be to see my fancies in the final decs.

First up is Mr Baloo, who sits on number 19 in the handicap, needing three to come out, in Sandown's 1.50. He's been off the track for three months or thereabouts, so may well have had a setback you'd have thought, but his form this season was interesting. He's a horse who did some winning in class fours when being both held up and then making all at Kempton, so he's not one dimensional, in terms of his running style, although for Sandown this Saturday, the main hope would be he's firing on all cylinders at home, after his break off the track, and will improve again for the step up in grade. I've taken the chance ante post, just in the event the race cuts up a bit and he may shorten nearer the time, because he'll have a nice racing weight and could be a plot. But obviously I'm just trying to second guess Hannon Jnr at the moment, and there's a fair chance he might not even run. There's no jockey booked up yet either, so if I see this I'd be more confident. After three months off the track, I'm hopeful his trainer has entered him for this race with every intention of running him. Lets hope so.

My second pick is Fairbanks in the listed race at Chester. The favourite is Hamish who is clear on ratings, but I've no idea if he's an intended runner, as he has usually been plying his trade at a higher level. So go on Haggas, do my good self a favour, take him out, and open the proverbial can of punting worms that will undoubtably follow. The second fav Caius Chorister has been a bit disappointing of late, being way too keen and pulling hard at Ascot. I wouldn't be backing her for this, though on her form she'd obviously have her chance. In any event, Fairbanks is still on an upward curve. He had no luck in running in the Ebor. He was hampered, denied a clear run and short of room. I guess whether Andrew Balding runs him here depends on how he's come out of York. He does also hold a Irish Cesarewitch entry at the end of September. I'm hoping I get the rub of the green at tomorrows declaration stage. I think Fairbanks is the type to run well in a listed race with fewer runners. We know he's better than his Ebor effort, as the horse he beat at Newmarket, Oneforthegutter, franked the form when third in the Ebor. Anyway, my main worry is will Balding skip the race altogether and wait for another valuable handicap. We'll see.

My third selection is James Webb in the 3:00 1M2F handicap at Sandown. He's by American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare. He did it really nicely the last day, in maiden company at Yarmouth. He showed plenty speed, and the 'making all' quality of always a good attribute for a track like Sandown, where often very few get involved in handicaps from the rear end. He's solid in the market at around 7/1, so I just hope to see him declared tomorrow to line up on Saturday. He could be a blot on the handicap.

Those were my three for an ante post each way patent on Saturday.

They may all be taken out tomorrow, so having played it blind, so to speak, plus not knowing running intentions, I'll count myself lucky if all three get declared. That said, I reckon all three have a good squeak, so I thought I'd try and preview the experiment on this thread.

Trust me, if I was here to spout serious shite, I would have gone on the Trump/Harris thread!
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It's nice to see Ben Linfoot at the Sporting Life fancies Fairbanks and Mr Baloo. I'm not massively confident but I still think they are fair prices. Ben's piece is here. Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Beverley, Chester and Sandown Saturday August 31

I do fear the old boy Lyndon B in the 1.50. He's good on his day. We'll see.
 
A load of old shite today.

Beat the odds, but not the bookies.

Still, it's a nice summers evening and although today didn't match last Saturday, I can't complain.
 
Reckon Believing ran a massive race in the Nunthorpe considering the trip was below her optimum.
Said previously that she'd net a gp1 this year,and Saturday's Sprint Cup is right up her street.
Took the 10/1 which is available generally.
 
reet hard said:
Reckon Believing ran a massive race in the Nunthorpe considering the trip was below her optimum.
Said previously that she'd net a gp1 this year,and Saturday's Sprint Cup is right up her street.
Took the 10/1 which is available generally.
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I may be wrong, but I think they are targeting the Flying Five at the Curragh the weekend after.
 
That's unlucky reet, she'd have had a good chance although maybe they're worried about potentially soft ground. I think there are loads of good races/angles to tackle this weekend and I have some bets lined up.

In the September Stakes I want to be against Hamish and Lion's Pride, both 11/4 joint jollies. I think the 3yo's Jayarebe (Meehan though, worrying) and Kalpana who I was eyeing up for the Fillies and Mares at Ascot are interesting at 5s and 7s. Hamish is respected but I feel this crop of 3yos might be able to best him. Lion's Pride has been disappoining. Can't have at all.

The first race at Haydock on Saturday is interesting. Maljoom is 7/4 fav but interestingly Marquand is booked for a few rides at Kempton which sort of makes me think he might not run - Haggas has a couple of likely runners in the Sprint Cup who have Tudhope and Fallon booked. The ground is currently good to soft with not a lot of rain forecast and I've had a little interest in Nostrum who ran well on the July Course recently.
 
Lion's Pride is fav over Hamish for the Sept Stakes, not sure I get that. To me he performs at the same level at Kempton as elsewhere it's just that his wins at the track have had lesser opponents. In a good possie with Kalpana though lost a bit on Jayarebe. Not ante-post now but backed Elite Status in the Sprint Cup - 6/1 is just a mite too big.
 
Prices out for Donny. Interested in the Park Stakes and I've dutched Shamida and Mistral Star, the former more as cover..always fear a Weld/Aga filly. Mistral Star ran ok in the Yorkshire Oaks but I'm betting that her pedigree - Frankel out of a Shirocco mare - will see her eek out more improvement over the trip. 7/1 fair.
 
Montassib looks the real deal after his Sprint Cup win,and looks a moral for the Champion Sprint,imo.
Will relish the stiff test,handles most ground,and looks sure to be aimed here,now he has found his metier.
7/1 Unibet.6/1 general.
 
Not sure how likely he is to run, but that 50/1 ( bet365 ), about Facteur Cheval would look huge, if he turned up. Bona fide G1 operator. Gives the impression to me a step up to 10f would suit.
Irish Champion Saturday
 
I'm trying to find the right one for the Portland on Saturday. A few have several entries, so any bets ante post I'd keep small.

Rumstar was disappointing last time in a small runner field. Maybe the Stewards Cup took something out of him. Maybe not. Pocklington was mentioned after his last run as an eyecatcher by a few forum members, including Barjon, (where is Barjon by the way, hope he's okay).

Secret Guest has an interesting profile, improved massively last time, and he'll need to again to land this. Archduke Ferdinand is in the form of his life. I know him as he did me a good turn at Newmarket. I doubt he'll make the cut, and this is probably too big an ask anyway.

One horse who I think should scrape in the handicap off a low weight now rated in high 80s is Manila Scouse. This one improved in 2023. There's signs on a going day that he is still a horse with potential. Admittedly this season he's been a win or finish nowhere type, but during one of those wins he beat the future St Wilfred winner Dare To Hope which was good form. He then beat a fair horse on his day called Radio Goo Goo.

50s with Hills seems a huge price even ante post. Manilla might be better placed in the handicap the next day on Sunday at Doncaster truth be told, especially after his recent poor efforts. I'm keeping an eye on where he goes anyway.
 
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Marb said:
I'm trying to find the right one for the Portland on Saturday. A few have several entries, so any bets ante post I'd keep small.

Rumstar was disappointing last time in a small runner field. Maybe the Stewards Cup took something out of him. Maybe not. Pocklington was mentioned after his last run as an eyecatcher by a few forum members, including Barjon, (where is Barjon by the way, hope he's okay).

Secret Guest has an interesting profile, improved massively last time, and he'll need to again to land this. Archduke Ferdinand is in the form of his life. I know him as he did me a good turn at Newmarket. I doubt he'll make the cut, and this is probably too big an ask anyway.

One horse who I think should scrape in the handicap off a low weight now rated in high 80s is Manila Scouse. This one improved in 2023. There's signs on a going day that he is still a horse with potential. Admittedly this season he's been a win or finish nowhere type, but during one of those wins he beat the future St Wilfred winner Dare To Hope which was good form. He then beat a fair horse on his day called Radio Goo Goo.

50s with Hills seems a huge price even ante post. Manilla might be better placed in the handicap the next day on Sunday at Doncaster truth be told, especially after his recent poor efforts. I'm keeping an eye on where he goes anyway.
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David Allan is booked for Manila on Sunday. Looking like that's where he'll run.
 
Portland looks a nightmare to me - was looking at Equilateral, maybe 5 and a half will really suit him.

Mistral Star tomorrow been declared, I'm also on Magnum Force in the Flying Childers.
 
Nakheel could surprise Mistral Star,imo.Unlucky behind hehind her at Newmarket,and again at York latest,she finished with a rattle in both races.
First time pieces could givvver the spark she needs,,,,and she's double the price.
 
Euronymous said:
Portland looks a nightmare to me - was looking at Equilateral, maybe 5 and a half will really suit him.

Mistral Star tomorrow been declared, I'm also on Magnum Force in the Flying Childers.
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Back in the camp and firing on four cylinders, albeit intermittently :). Been waiting impatiently for Magnum Force after York where I thought he was really unlucky “Magnum Force was drawn in the car park and made his way over to the favoured side only to be denied a clear run for ages when it mattered. Finished very strongly and probably best of all when clear , but couldn’t quite catch the winner.” GL.
 
barjon said:
Back in the camp and firing on four cylinders, albeit intermittentlugy :). Been waiting impatiently for Magnum Force after York where I thought he was really unlucky “Magnum Force was drawn in the car park and made his way over to the favoured side only to be denied a clear run for ages when it mattered. Finished very strongly and probably best of all when clear , but couldn’t quite catch the winner.” GL.
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Dunno.BJ - there's a suspicion the higher drawn horses were advantaged by coming off a strong pace,whereas Tropical Storm was un the van throughout and,though he's up in grade,there's little to suggest he can't do the same here.
 
Magnum Force was drawn near side and finished up far side. He covered more ground that TS and was beat what half a length. I'll be surprised if he can't reverse.
 
reet hard said:
Dunno.BJ - there's a suspicion the higher drawn horses were advantaged by coming off a strong pace,whereas Tropical Storm was un the van throughout and,though he's up in grade,there's little to suggest he can't do the same here.
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Say 3m over 1000?
Long time since i Idid Pythagoras,but I doubt that equates to a neck;not withstanding TS had done his job by then.
The result shouldI reveal allI:)
 
Marb said:
I'm trying to find the right one for the Portland on Saturday. A few have several entries, so any bets ante post I'd keep small.

Rumstar was disappointing last time in a small runner field. Maybe the Stewards Cup took something out of him. Maybe not. Pocklington was mentioned after his last run as an eyecatcher by a few forum members, including Barjon, (where is Barjon by the way, hope he's okay).

Secret Guest has an interesting profile, improved massively last time, and he'll need to again to land this. Archduke Ferdinand is in the form of his life. I know him as he did me a good turn at Newmarket. I doubt he'll make the cut, and this is probably too big an ask anyway.

One horse who I think should scrape in the handicap off a low weight now rated in high 80s is Manila Scouse. This one improved in 2023. There's signs on a going day that he is still a horse with potential. Admittedly this season he's been a win or finish nowhere type, but during one of those wins he beat the future St Wilfred winner Dare To Hope which was good form. He then beat a fair horse on his day called Radio Goo Goo.

50s with Hills seems a huge price even ante post. Manilla might be better placed in the handicap the next day on Sunday at Doncaster truth be told, especially after his recent poor efforts. I'm keeping an eye on where he goes anyway.
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I'm thinking of forgiving Rumstar that last effort. I still think he's a danger to all.

I see Manilla has snuck in at the bottom. 40s, 6 places, is worth an each way.

They'll be my two against the field.
 
I'm close to going off the rails. I only tune into the races, don't watch ITV - 1535 comes I put it on and Mistral Star is not running - cannot find a reason, asked on Twitter and despite having 1800 followers no c*** replies. Can anyone give me a reason?
 
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