The 2024 Longshot Thread

Three in the Ebor:

Forza Orta (!) 80/1 - joint top on my figures on his best form of last season. Badly out of form so far and ran just as badly the other day but this is the Ebor and if he went and won and I wasn't on...

Chillingham 20/1 - also joint top on last season's best form and looks like he's maybe been trained for it.

Crystal Delight 25/1 - I was very taken by his last win and still have him as a +p horse. If he can find 5lbs, which I think is entirely likely, he'd be in the mix.

I'll try and post my ratings on the race page.
 
Outsider said:
Admiral D 410y 40/1
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4.10 - I'm with Outsider here. I think Yorick likes it too. A few iffy runs this season but now well handicapped. Might need more give but would have a shout on its best form.

I've also backed Rhythm N Hooves at 50/1 in this race. Profile not dissimilar and now very well handicapped if it can be coaxed back to form.

Neither would be my main bet in the race, though.
 
5.20 York - two longshots here too.

Killybegs Warrior 20/1, 5 places - looked on the way back last time and and now seriously well handicapped. James Doyle booked.

Chichester 50/1, 5 places - now well handicapped on my figures. Worryingly weak in the market - I was prepared to back it 25/1 - so no great hopes but not going to chicken out just because it has drifted.

Neither is my main bet, though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
1.50 - two longshots simply because they are over-priced relative to where they sit in my ratings table.

Flight Plan 28/1 - second top only 2lbs off the top. My figures are somewhat at odds with ORs (joint bottom but only 3lbs behind the second top) and RPRs (7lbs off the top but 2lbs higher than 15/2 shot Task Force)

Checkandchallenge 50/1 - 4lbs off my top rating (2lbs on his best form of last season) and third top on RPRs. If the first-time cheekpieces work he could well outrun those odds.

No great expectations, to be honest. I just think the prices are wrong.
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Good each way shout with Checkandchallenge, DO.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
1.50 - two longshots simply because they are over-priced relative to where they sit in my ratings table.

Flight Plan 28/1 - second top only 2lbs off the top. My figures are somewhat at odds with ORs (joint bottom but only 3lbs behind the second top) and RPRs (7lbs off the top but 2lbs higher than 15/2 shot Task Force)

Checkandchallenge 50/1 - 4lbs off my top rating (2lbs on his best form of last season) and third top on RPRs. If the first-time cheekpieces work he could well outrun those odds.

No great expectations, to be honest. I just think the prices are wrong.
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I was getting excited there for a minute. 😁
 
York 4.10. Ballymount Boy 18/1.
I think a fast run 6f on a flat track is what he needs. Would be a lot more confident if they’d been more rain. Also think he’s been plotted for something like this.
 
Marb said:
I'm doing Vafortino e/w in the 3.00 with the dead eight runners. I think he's the type to run well at a big price. The Fav looks a class apart but will the same Audience turn up that did in the Lockinge and Goodwood? His supporters will hope so. He's been a revelation since the gelding operation. If he runs to form here he wins. Kinross I don't know what to make of anymore. Maybe Vafortino can sneak a place. There's bits and pieces of form which could allow him to run well. Even his sixth in the Wokingham off top weight wasn't such a bad effort. He needs a career best but stranger things have happend. He's had a 42 day break off the track and his form figures after decent breaks since being gelded are quite good. Let's see.
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Did the job E/W.
 
Desijo said:
Strike Red 4.10 York Saturday 20/1 bet 365.
Looks well handicapped on the best of his form.
Finished 6th in the Stewards cup and Richard Fahey speaks well of him in the Sporting Life.
York will hopefully get plenty of rain tonight which will enhance his chances.
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Ran a blinder.
Looked likely to win for a long way.
Nice bit of place money.👍🏻
 
Zoulu Warrior 2.07 Epsom 100-1 across the board

Playing the old game that's highlighted at least two 100-1+ winners in recent years - a Heather Main 2YO on 3rd or 2nd run (this one is ZWs 3rd).

Has had an entry in the valuable Oct Newmarket Sales race over 6f since the start of the season. This race is over 7, so this could be a line-up for that (has had a 2-month break, been gelded). Equally, they may think this Epsom 7 followed by the Newmarket 6 is doable.

Slow away from stall one and then hung left and raced wide over Kempton's 6f in previous race, + pulled a shoe, so may well have not shown true ability there.

Can ignore first race at Salisbury (although up against a fair few useful-enough looking 2YOs - without there being anything super special in the field).

Ridden today by Jack Michell, who was on Island Bandit when he won at Sandown on 2nd start at 125-1. JM has a fair enough Epsom rides record.

Sired by Zoustar, who also sired Heather's 150-1 winner Zoulu Chief (won at Newbury on 2nd start last year).

The others don't scream out as anything special (though ofc one or two might be mildly useful). At least two will logically want a few furlongs further on breeding. The Beckett horse could have something. The Adam West runner is highly unlikely first time up in a race like this (but will be worth watching in next few, ideally at a lower level). The current 2nd fav was beaten in a Newm seller and has already switched stables.

The most likely winner (among the favs) on paper has already been withdrawn.

Hoping Jack tries to do what the other two did - either up with the leader or front-running and blow them away. A poor start probably means it's blown for today. Might be the last chance to ever get three-figure odds, but a poor run will open the door for some juicy-enough prices in a late(ish) season nursery or somewhere in the first few 3YO handicap runs.
 
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Master Richard 6.14 Southwell 33-1 most 4 places

This Racing League event is only a Class 4. Master R has plenty of back form that would make him attractive at 33-1. Indeed, anything approaching the form from the York Class 2 against Point Lynas from around this time 2 years ago will be good enough to see him there at the line.

David Allan rides. Does so fairly regularly for the Duffield stable and has a reasonable win/first 4 record.

Instinct tells me 1 mile might be better but has proven 7f form too. First time at Southwell I believe, but also has proven form at Newcastle.

Could front run it and try to burn them off and, equally, might sit midfield and come with a run from 1-2 out. Recent races suggest the latter is most likely (which is why - with my thinking - it's possible that a mile might be better), but MR doesn't seem to hit a wall so the finish should be strong if close enough.

The three 3YO's look likely to be dangerous but all the older horses look beatable.
 
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I've had a go ew on Imperial Quarter at 100/1.
Sandown, Saturday 2.25.
Needs to find a stone to get involved, but with only 5 career starts, it's not entirely out of the question. Trainer seems to have faith in her, hence the attempt at getting some black type.
Favourite ought to win, but she strikes me, as an unreliable dodge pot, that the bookies love.
 
chaumi said:
Master Richard 6.14 Southwell 33-1 most 4 places
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Pleased enough with that. Tried to make all but possibly used up a little too much early on getting across to the rail. That was probably a mistake with hindsight, in theory he could have come from behind like the horse on the outside. But fought on well when headed and had enough to run on towards the finish and just grab the 4th after looking bagged for 5th. I think the 7f didn't help, the 4 or 5 that went past him about 1f out had a little more speed and a mile may have seen him closer.
 
A nice placer, Chaum.

How an earth is Lihou such a big each way price? The drift is almost alarming. A last time out winner. I always thought he was a useful handicapper. I've had to have a kopek each way on him. Even though he's drawn wide.
 
Robicheaux said:
I've had a go ew on Imperial Quarter at 100/1.
Sandown, Saturday 2.25.
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Has an entry in a nine and a half Group 3 in Ireland on 21st Sept which adds to thoughts that RV does have some belief. Could be she's just needed time. That looked a nice run last time at Goodwood, allbeit a C2 hcap.

Quote from earlier in the year...

“I think she is a stakes class filly, although I don’t know what grade she is. I think she will carry on the good line of Ambivalent. She is a half sister to Teona, and her mum was a Group One winner. She is a late bloomer and I think she will do well this season. It was a nothing race she won at Carlisle, but she is a nice filly. I think a mile and a quarter is her trip. We ran her over a mile and a half in a Listed race at Newmarket on her final start, but personally I don’t think that is her trip. I’d put a line through that race as she probably wasn’t ready to take on the colts having won a small race at Carlisle. It was a big step up, but she didn’t disgrace herself.”

Maybe RV has had a rethink about 10f being best, hence going for this stiff Sandown mile.


**Edit, Friday morning - I think only Skybet still go the 100 now.
 
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Curragh 4.35 - Current Option 33/1, 6 places

I haven't done any studying for this weekend due to constraints on my time but decided to check out the card for this race because it's a big one. It's close to the top ratings on RPRs which I respect enough to think maybe 33/1 is too big by some way. I don't know anything about the horse but the trainer has more than one in the race and the claimer has the best record for him so I'm happy to take a small interest.
 
Has an entry in a nine and a half Group 3 in Ireland on 21st Sept which adds to thoughts that RV does have some belief. Could be she's just needed time. That looked a nice run last time at Goodwood, allbeit a C2 hcap.
chaumi said:
Quote from earlier in the year...

“I think she is a stakes class filly, although I don’t know what grade she is. I think she will carry on the good line of Ambivalent. She is a half sister to Teona, and her mum was a Group One winner. She is a late bloomer and I think she will do well this season. It was a nothing race she won at Carlisle, but she is a nice filly. I think a mile and a quarter is her trip. We ran her over a mile and a half in a Listed race at Newmarket on her final start, but personally I don’t think that is her trip. I’d put a line through that race as she probably wasn’t ready to take on the colts having won a small race at Carlisle. It was a big step up, but she didn’t disgrace herself.”

Maybe RV has had a rethink about 10f being best, hence going for this stiff Sandown mile.


**Edit, Friday morning - I think only Skybet still go the 100 now.
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Very very nice, Robicheaux
 
Robicheaux said:
I've had a go ew on Imperial Quarter at 100/1.
Sandown, Saturday 2.25.
Needs to find a stone to get involved, but with only 5 career starts, it's not entirely out of the question. Trainer seems to have faith in her, hence the attempt at getting some black type.
Favourite ought to win, but she strikes me, as an unreliable dodge pot, that the bookies love.
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V nice, Robi. I missed it.
 
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