The 2024 Longshot Thread

Robicheaux said:
A couple interest me.
Battleoverdoyen. Galway 6.00 tomorrow. Ran 2 good races at this meeting 2 years ago off 149. Thrown in now at 123. Yes he's probably past it, but at 33/1 6 places. I'll take the risk.
Stewards Cup Saturday.
Mr Wagyu. Another who has run well at the meeting off higher marks.
I think he will go well here.. 25/1.
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Well done with that great priced winner. (y)
 
Dream Composer /Stewards cup
Has plenty of decent form at Goodwood.
May prefer a little more cut in ground but is a huge price at 40/1.
Good luck everyone with your bets👍🏻
 
Does this beauty of a reverse forecast count? 😎😅 did it just before the off this dry grounds taking so many runners out of it.
 

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Ah we will let you off...! Always good to see someone have a good win regardless. And I’m the biggest after timer out there! 😆
 
simmo said:
Lol, it does I think, but perhaps more appropriate for the aftertiming thread haha!!
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Ill try to remember next time was just excited to share it. First rev forecast in ages! I completely and shamelessly exploited the turf to grab that one 😆 but its good to get one over on the bookies!
 
Saturday, 3.20 Ripon - Monks Dream 28/1, 6 places (Hills, 33s/5pl elsewhere) - makes his 3yo debut and holds an entry in the Ayr Gold Cup, which he'll never get into unless he goes up at least 10lbs and even then that would be extremely unlikely as I reckon 96+ (82 here) will be needed, so the Silver Cup would be a more obvious target off just a modest rise for winning this. In the last 10 years only six 3yos have run in this race and two have won, including last year. Easterby is nobody's fool so I'm wondering why he's choosing to bring the horse out now, in this valuable race. I'm happy to pay a small fee to find out.
 
Newbury 3.00 - Documenting 50/1 - won this two years ago off 99, gets in off 94 here and Joe Leavy takes off a further useful 5lbs. Won on his second run this season following a pipe-opener and ran a couple of weeks back after a near-three months absence. Possibly targeting this? No other immediate entries so possibly.

The ew double with Monks Dream works out at 1478/1 for the win and 71.6/1 for the place portions. That's worth the price of a Euromillions ticket for an alternative bit of fun.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 - Documenting 50/1 - won this two years ago off 99, gets in off 94 here and Joe Leavy takes off a further useful 5lbs. Won on his second run this season following a pipe-opener and ran a couple of weeks back after a near-three months absence. Possibly targeting this? No other immediate entries so possibly.

The ew double with Monks Dream works out at 1478/1 for the win and 71.6/1 for the place portions. That's worth the price of a Euromillions ticket for an alternative bit of fun.
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Looking at this + Accidental Agent myself. May do both ew.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 - Documenting 50/1 - won this two years ago off 99, gets in off 94 here and Joe Leavy takes off a further useful 5lbs. Won on his second run this season following a pipe-opener and ran a couple of weeks back after a near-three months absence. Possibly targeting this? No other immediate entries so possibly.
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Same race - Accidental Agent 25/1, 4 places - won first time up two seasons ago and goes well for inexperienced jockeys. He has no immediate other entries either and this wouldn’t be as competitive as the likes of a festival £100k race. He’s potentially chucked in if Mia Nicholls can get a tune out of him first time up.

Edit - just noticed your post, Robi. Yes, agree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, 3.20 Ripon - Monks Dream 28/1, 6 places (Hills, 33s/5pl elsewhere) - makes his 3yo debut and holds an entry in the Ayr Gold Cup, which he'll never get into unless he goes up at least 10lbs and even then that would be extremely unlikely as I reckon 96+ (82 here) will be needed, so the Silver Cup would be a more obvious target off just a modest rise for winning this. In the last 10 years only six 3yos have run in this race and two have won, including last year. Easterby is nobody's fool so I'm wondering why he's choosing to bring the horse out now, in this valuable race. I'm happy to pay a small fee to find out.
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This is shaping up as a poor bet. Out to 50s generally and over 100 on the exchange.
 
Tim Easterby wasn't giving anything away in his pre-race sum up, though at the same time saying nothing approaching a particular negative...."Both of them seem to be in good form. Manila Scouse has come out of a good win at Chepstow last time in good order and he likes a fast six furlongs, so the track will suit him. Monks Dream is coming back from a long winter break, but he looks amazing and we're looking forward to running him again."
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 - Documenting 50/1 - won this two years ago off 99, gets in off 94 here and Joe Leavy takes off a further useful 5lbs. Won on his second run this season following a pipe-opener and ran a couple of weeks back after a near-three months absence. Possibly targeting this? No other immediate entries so possibly.
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Fine run for a close third. I wondered if the jockey slightly misjudged it. Looked to me like he was shadowing the fav with a view to taking him late but it didn't quite happen.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.00 - Documenting 50/1 - won this two years ago off 99, gets in off 94 here and Joe Leavy takes off a further useful 5lbs. Won on his second run this season following a pipe-opener and ran a couple of weeks back after a near-three months absence. Possibly targeting this? No other immediate entries so possibly.

The ew double with Monks Dream works out at 1478/1 for the win and 71.6/1 for the place portions. That's worth the price of a Euromillions ticket for an alternative bit of fun.
Click to expand...
Documenting ran a fine race to finish 3rd.
Nice bit of place money.
May have won with a few more yards🙌
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, 3.20 Ripon - Monks Dream 28/1, 6 places (Hills, 33s/5pl elsewhere) - makes his 3yo debut and holds an entry in the Ayr Gold Cup, which he'll never get into unless he goes up at least 10lbs and even then that would be extremely unlikely as I reckon 96+ (82 here) will be needed, so the Silver Cup would be a more obvious target off just a modest rise for winning this. In the last 10 years only six 3yos have run in this race and two have won, including last year. Easterby is nobody's fool so I'm wondering why he's choosing to bring the horse out now, in this valuable race. I'm happy to pay a small fee to find out.
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Duran Fentiman is not a bad jockey but I don't recall ever seeing a decent jockey so out of sync with a horse as he was from about the four-mark. It was pretty obvious his instructions were to ensure he didn't get the best out out of it. Not a good watch but I'm not going to write the horse off for now.

I'm now wondering if old Summerghand is now GATG. Looked outpaced from a long way out. Might need seven now to have any chance of winning.
 
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18.35 Perth
Cuban Cigar (Bet365 4 places). No more than 16s elsewhere he appears to have been priced up on his disappointing Flat runs this summer rather than his previous decent hurdles form. Mack the man let the form down at Kelso at the end of May but may have reappeared too soon
 
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