The 2024 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
3rd?

I reckon that's the longshot bets all covered.
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His price went out to 40/1! I only looked at the race last minute so there’s a lot to look at and I only realised late on that it was ran at Newcastle last year. Lord Melbourne was my third rated horse and fitted in with my place names system (I live near to Melbourne Hall but also had to back Beamish my favourite museum). Waxing Gibbons ( unbacked) ticked most boxes but wasn’t much of a price so I’m glad he didn’t win. Good days racing and Al Dancer ( unbacked) made me remember why I still love racing. We went to Badger Ales day a few years ago when we were sans dog for a while. Can only go to dog friendly courses these days.
 
Always makes me think of Barizan who I’d backed at a really good price for the Triumph, only to see him narrowly beaten by Soldatino after leading for most of the way round. It still hurts.
 
Outsider said:
Everyone thought the same I think.
I was willing it to stay on.
Brilliant race to watch.
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It really was.

Every now and again you get a race in which it's obvious several are trying for their lives and that was the impression I had yesterday with Remastered going with the leader and the rest not far behind off a genuinely strong pace.

I backed Mofasa on a kind of process-of-elimination basis, unable to muster too much enthusiasm for anything else, but got the impression early on that the plan is anther day. The Skelton horse was the one I latched on to during the race. I got the impression Harry felt the leaders were going too fast and that he was pacing his horse effectively, especially when he started taking closer order at what seemed the right time but he was then on the receiving end of some bad luck in running. I don't think he'd have caught the leader but I thought he was getting the best tactical ride.

It turned out that was the winner and great credit is due to the young jockey. If it was a plan it was sensationally well executed; if it was a gamble it paid off in style; if it was sheer lucky judgment of pace then it paid out like three sevens on a puggy.

In any event, it made watching the racing yesterday a brilliant experience.
 
This Time Maybe 7.00 Chelms 50-1

A weak race. TTM went from Hannon (where one of his 4 races was a Windsor C2 novice second) to Mark Usher in Oct 23.

No show in 5 races since (after a 300 day break between the stables), but last time was a little better.

Hannon obviously thought he wouldn't be able to win races in the appropriate class, but this is a 0-55 where TTM (if he does have anything, and with Time Test as a dad you'd think there's every chance he does) could come good at last.

Mark Usher seems to think a place is well within reach and TTM will be off to get it, though he does think the same of his other (much better-priced) runner Heeratthetrack.
 
I wasn't going to bother with this race, but I've taken 40s ew on Straw Fan Jack, in the Paddy Power. Has some good couse form. 3rd at the festival last season ( Il Rodoto) behind. Won here 2 seasons ago, beating the 158 rated Ash Tree Meadow.
On a going day, could go well here.
 
11 months into this thread and I'm still trying to put up a winner!

I'm taking a chance on Significantly in the 3.48 at Newcastle tomorrow. He's a proper top class, battle hardened handicapper, who has lost his form but reappears after a wind operation.

He's only ran 3 times on the all weather, winning one of those at Newcastle, which was a conditions race some four years ago.

I just need him to come back to his very best and find a few pounds after the wind op really. If those two things happen, 25/1 is a big price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I agree and will be backing it along with two others that I'll post once the sweetie money is on.
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Best I could get about Madara was 22/1 but I can live with that.

The other longshots I've now backed (glad I waited for bigger prices so swings'n'roundabouts and all that) are:

Editeur Du Gite 66/1, 4 places - There’s no evidence it will stay – it tried unsuccessfully as a younger horse – but it’s now very well handicapped and is actually bred for it so I have to take the chance at the price.

Jetoile 66/1, 4 places - wouldn’t be anywhere near this price if it was trained by a bigger name but it definitely has the form in the book having won last year’s Old Roan off a pound higher. I also think the claimer is value.
 
Significantly a NR at Newcastle.

Cheltenham 1.45 Noble Anthem hasn't done a lot wrong over fences so far, and ran really well last time when third at this venue, when he was reported to have bled from the nose. Clearly the market is all about the favourite, but with the 8 runners this one is an each way price.
 
Cheltenham 2.55 - Escaria Ten 66/1, 4 places - can't resist a wee pop at this one. He was once rated 152 (135 here before taking the 7lb claim into consideration) and has only his second run for this yard but they do like to target races at this track and could easily have opted for the cross country race on Friday in which they ran the big-priced runner-up from 18lbs out of the handicap. The jockey has one winner for the yard from ten rides but it was an 80/1 shot. Nothing ventured…
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheltenham 2.55 - Escaria Ten 66/1, 4 places - can't resist a wee pop at this one. He was once rated 152 (135 here before taking the 7lb claim into consideration) and has only his second run for this yard but they do like to target races at this track and could easily have opted for the cross country race on Friday in which they ran the big-priced runner-up from 18lbs out of the handicap. The jockey has one winner for the yard from ten rides but it was an 80/1 shot. Nothing ventured…
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NR
 
Desert Orchid said:
Greatwood - Jacovec Tavern, generally 20s and on the drift. See November Meeting thread for reasoning.
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I've gone in again at the price to five places but expectations are even lower with B365 offering a 25% boost. That's usually a sign they've got intel against it.
 
Also in the Greatwood:

Black Poppy 33/1, 5 places - top on my figures and Kerry Lee likes winning here.

One I won't claim for the thread if it wins is Royal Way which I thought I'd backed at 40/1 on Friday but don't see it in my accounts so I've had to settle for 16/1 to five places. I was so annoyed with myself I thought of letting it go but that would just constitute cutting off my nose to spite my face.
 
Haydock 2.30.
I'm on Twig at 66s ew. 50s, still to be had. That's a very big price imo.
Bold front running type. He might have some of these in trouble. Particularly if the rain gets in the ground.
 
Robicheaux said:
Haydock 2.30.
I'm on Twig at 66s ew. 50s, still to be had. That's a very big price imo.
Bold front running type. He might have some of these in trouble. Particularly if the rain gets in the ground.
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Same race - Zain Nights 20/1, 5 places - on my figures has a similar chance as the favourite so I'd rather back it ew than the fav win only. This is actually my main bet in the race.

Edit - also Castle Rushen 40/1 and The Imposter 50/1. CR is too high up my ratings table not to back and The Imposter, while further down goes into a very valuable handicap with form figures 1/111- with the profile of an improver. I reckon if it won people would look at that and wonder why they dissed it.
 
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Ascot 2.05 - The Big Breakaway 28/1, 4 places - his form 'figures' are more akin to picking up a Penguin but I'm just a bit intrigued that Sean Bowen has been drafted in for the ride but the horse is on a ridiculous mark if Charlton can get a tune out of him.

Ascot 3.20 - Harper's Brook 33/1 - pulls himself up in front so Woods will need to get his nose in front right on the line, no easy feat but he's handicapped to win and I think he's a lot better than he's shown. Now with Skelton and maybe he can unlock that potential.
 
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