The 2024 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 3.35 - Montassib 20/1, 4 places (Hills) - Everything strikes me as being right for this one to run a career best: big field, strong pace, soft ground. Hoping for a late charge and if he doesn't win I hope it's Elite Status that does!
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Well done D.and what a price.someone on Sporting life tipped it but said take a price now for the champion sprint.
I almost backed it,honest.
 
I've backed Snowcapped in Galways 6.15 listed event tonight. She's bits and pieces of form including in a couple of listed races, and she's got a chance on official ratings. The betting market understandably is factoring in more improvement to come from the market leaders. I've took an each way chance on Snowcapped though. I need two things: her to run to her very best form and also improve for a stronger gallop to aim at. If I get those hopefully she can run into a place. She's not my most confident selection of all time but I'm just putting it out there.
 
Hi all, I only do doubles & small stakes but I am Quiet successful & thought i would share my tips with you all, today i am doing 15.00 Doncaster January & 20.00 Newcastle Dc Flyer.
 
Steve66 said:
Hi all, I only do doubles & small stakes but I am Quiet successful & thought i would share my tips with you all, today i am doing 15.00 Doncaster January & 20.00 Newcastle Dc Flyer.
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Hey Steve This is the longshot thread - intended for selections at 20-1 upwards. I don't think either of these qualify. For lower priced selections you're better off either posting in the 'what are you backing today' thread, or (if applicable) on a specific race/meeting thread, or even you can create our own thread. There are one or two other options as well.

Shout on a pm if you're unsure and I can give you a quick tour on a screenshare.
 
Star Zinc 5.05 Chester 66-1 with a few (4 places, though a non runner will scupper that probably)

Looks overpriced although there's a chance one or two will be a little too hot. Has heavy ground on turf and some good enough looking Newcastle and Southwell (round a bend) form. Paul Mulrennan knows him well. Only 5 so may well not have peaked yet.

Expect PM to anchor him last and try to come up the inside over the last furlong and a half. With luck, those in front will fan out wide enough coming off the bend and leave a clear run through.

Risk is he won't settle enough early for the finishing kick, but has run freeish before and still had something of a finish left. Obviously Chester's tight 7 might not give him enough time, but hopefully the leaders falter a little in the ground to somewhat offset that. Form around Southwell's bends gives some extra hope.

**Edit, looks like he's gone to 40 while I was typing
 
Mukaber 2.25 Don 25-1 WH

Potentially overpriced. Had a Railway Stakes entry and still entered for the Mill Reef. Jamie Spencer up (won from the front on him last time at Newbury). Hannon is not discounting his chances of running well in this field.

Taken the 36 on BF and now 30, but mid 30s or higher could well be seen again later.
 
Saturday, Doncaster 5.25 - Good Heavens 50/1 - well in on its best form of two seasons ago in Ireland and only raced once last year and twice this. Now with the Quinns but still owned by JP so maybe he still likes the horse.
 
Two longshots in the Portland:

Desert Cop 33/1, 6 places (40s to 5 pl with Unibet) - did me a nice turn earlier in the year and is clear top on my figures on that run. I suspect the Ayr race has been the target all season but he can't afford the penalty as he's already 4lbs higher in that race than here. The trainer also has King's Lynn and Fivethousandtoone in that race and maybe fancies one of them more. I don't know, so am not going to overthink it and just back DC here because he is weighted to win.

Silky Wilkie 40/1, 6 places - was really only on the edge of my radar because I fancied others more but my comments elsewhere about the ground have made me look at this one again as his very best form is in heavy ground, and the 7lb claimer has an excellent strike rate for the trainer.
 
Don 3.00 - Pogo 30/1 - my summary of the race written yesterday: If Kinross is up to running to his mark he should win but I wouldn’t want to be taking 7/4 that he will. The handicapper has taken a very positive view of Poet Master’s Curragh win but it’s a long way better than anything he’d done before and I’m inclined to pick a lot of holes in the form and it incurs a penalty for this. There are more doubts in this field than in a 1950s pub ash tray so I’m just going to have an ew pop at Pogo and hope he can dictate his own fractions up front.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Don 3.00 - Pogo 30/1 - my summary of the race written yesterday: If Kinross is up to running to his mark he should win but I wouldn’t want to be taking 7/4 that he will. The handicapper has taken a very positive view of Poet Master’s Curragh win but it’s a long way better than anything he’d done before and I’m inclined to pick a lot of holes in the form and it incurs a penalty for this. There are more doubts in this field than in a 1950s pub ash tray so I’m just going to have an ew pop at Pogo and hope he can dictate his own fractions up front.
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I've long kept an eye on old Pogo. Will follow you each way. Best of luck today.
 
Matilda Picotte.
Curragh 3.35 tomorrow. Can get 33s with Hills. Looks value to me.
She was in good form this time last season, winning group 2+ 3 races.
First time over the minimum trip. Given her style of racing. Can't see it being a problem.
 
Golden Mind 2.40 Don 28-1

Been up and down since yesterday evening, as low as 18 and as high as 33. Now 28-1.

Had a slightly season-belated cobweb blower over a mile at York, ran well enough till running out of steam at the furlong pole to indicate ability is still there. Last season ran under a length 3rd to Snellen in the Chesham and under 2 lengths 4th to Haatem in the Group 2 Vintage at Goodwood.

Fahey seems unsure whether he can take this off 99. My reading is he can, though there are several dangers. Germanic's 11 length romp in a novice at Newcastle suggests he's got something, followed up by a shd beating at Thirsk after getting loose before (don't know how much that took out and it's possible it wasn't very much). You'd hope (as a Saxon Warrior) he might not come true good at this level until further next year.

Several others look useful enough without potentially screaming close to Group 3 level. Although one or two are already proven class 2 handicappers and could easily be good enough to win here.

GM comes into this after being gelded after York. That could be a worry and it's possible this is one race too early (also entered in the Ascot Challenge Cup in Oct). That race could be the real target, though RF indicates he's well for today. This race is valuable enough for a 'want to win' run, and he'll likely get in near the foot of the handicap at Ascot whatever happens here.
 
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Prix Niel - Wintertraum 66/1 - only two places and he has it all to do on the form so stakes are minimal. Niel runners tend not to be fully tuned up with the Arc in mind but my interest is piqued by the booking of Barzalona for this one while Demuro is on the shorter-priced stablemate. Wintertraum has only been tried once at 12f, the time before last, but he is bred for two miles so I'm hoping for a strong pace and a couple of the others running below form.
 
chaumi said:
Golden Mind 2.40 Don 28-1

Been up and down since yesterday evening, as low as 18 and as high as 33. Now 28-1.

Had a slightly season-belated cobweb blower over a mile at York, ran well enough till running out of steam at the furlong pole to indicate ability is still there. Last season ran under a length 3rd to Snellen in the Chesham and under 2 lengths 4th to Haatem in the Group 2 Vintage at Goodwood.

Fahey seems unsure whether he can take this off 99. My reading is he can, though there are several dangers. Germanic's 11 length romp in a novice at Newcastle suggests he's got something, followed up by a shd beating at Thirsk after getting loose before (don't know how much that took out and it's possible it wasn't very much). You'd hope (as a Saxon Warrior) he might not come true good at this level until further next year.

Several others look useful enough without potentially screaming close to Group 3 level. Although one or two are already proven class 2 handicappers and could easily be good enough to win here.

GM comes into this after being gelded after York. That could be a worry and it's possible this is one race too early (also entered in the Ascot Challenge Cup in Oct). That race could be the real target, though RF indicates he's well for today. This race is valuable enough for a 'want to win' run, and he'll likely get in near the foot of the handicap at Ascot whatever happens here.
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Nearly! Could have done with that winning. Down to 30 pence in my betting account again. Still, it’s added a few more pennies. Thanks chaumi!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Prix Niel - Wintertraum 66/1 - only two places and he has it all to do on the form so stakes are minimal. Niel runners tend not to be fully tuned up with the Arc in mind but my interest is piqued by the booking of Barzalona for this one while Demuro is on the shorter-priced stablemate. Wintertraum has only been tried once at 12f, the time before last, but he is bred for two miles so I'm hoping for a strong pace and a couple of the others running below form.
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Certainly outran its odds in fourth, only a half-length behind the favourite. No complaints.
 
Arc - Do Deuce 66/1 - Sky are going 100/1 but they limit me to pennies these days. Do Deuce is top-rated on unadjusted ORs, 8lbs higher than Shin Emperor who ran so well the other day. I'm presuming the price means he doesn't run but I had never heard of him until today so maybe he's just completely under the radar.
 
I've had a saver on Dynamic Talent in Kempton's 7.00. He's a horse I've mentioned before on this forum. He's spent most of his racing career blowing the start. So I think the time off the track he's had could be a good thing, if they've tried to teach this fella to get out the stalls properly. He's won at Kempton before and is a mad each way price. He may try and go from the front as well, so could trade shorter in the run.
 
Ayr Gold Cup - Aramis Grey 40/1, 5 places - it's possible there was a pace collapse last time but watch the race again and tell me how far you reckon she would have won had she not a) lost two or three lengths when squeezed just after the start, and b) found the gaps closing repeatedly from the two-pole... For me she's a winner without a penalty. That in itself guarantees nothing but her price looks 'way too long.
 
Star Anthem 3.15 Newbury tomorrow.
Won a small race at Bath on good to soft going before finishing 8th in the Coventry stakes at Royal Ascot.
The form of that race looks strong with numerous group winners having come out of that race.
Looks a huge price to me at 33/1.
Good luck if getting involved.
 
Aramis Grey Ayr gold cup.
Had a troubled passage when 3rd last time out at Windsor.
The winner has gone on to win a decent contest and he looks overpriced at 40/1 in this cavalry charge.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ayr Gold Cup - Aramis Grey 40/1, 5 places - it's possible there was a pace collapse last time but watch the race again and tell me how far you reckon she would have won had she not a) lost two or three lengths when squeezed just after the start, and b) found the gaps closing repeatedly from the two-pole... For me she's a winner without a penalty. That in itself guarantees nothing but her price looks 'way too long.
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Like the look of, so I'll follow you in
Commamche Hawk, also appeals 25/1 6 places. Battle hardened in this sort of thing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ayr Gold Cup - Aramis Grey 40/1, 5 places - it's possible there was a pace collapse last time but watch the race again and tell me how far you reckon she would have won had she not a) lost two or three lengths when squeezed just after the start, and b) found the gaps closing repeatedly from the two-pole... For me she's a winner without a penalty. That in itself guarantees nothing but her price looks 'way too long.
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Sorry DO never noticed you'd put it up first
Another senior moment🤣
 
Desijo said:
Star Anthem 3.15 Newbury tomorrow.
Won a small race at Bath on good to soft going before finishing 8th in the Coventry stakes at Royal Ascot.
The form of that race looks strong with numerous group winners having come out of that race.
Looks a huge price to me at 33/1.
Good luck if getting involved.
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Star Anthem has halved in price.
Hopefully a good sign.
Trainer Clive Cox has had 3 winners so far at Newbury so stable in form.
 
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