The 2024 Longshot Thread

I decided after that 66/1 - 93/1 betfair to sit back and watch Chepstow and Brighton.

One favourite after another either beaten or unplaced in small fields....results that belong in a horror show.

There simply isn't enough City of Troy or Constitution Hill moments these days for me to continue spending my spare time watching the crap we are being fed daily.

I was actually 1,340 pounds in front since the 30th of August after 2 losing bets today......BUT my Betfair account now reads Zero as I pulled out every penny earlier.

I would have lost the lot had I backed my fancies today plus a bit. Bloody awful racing

Can't keep watching this crap day in day out so a sabbatical is called for 1st October I might refund my account.

This moth the only Group 1's in England are The St Leger which is a 3rd rater IMO and 2 sprints.....The Chevely and the Middle Park so I wont be missing much

Keep safe all
 
Last edited:
Don't blame you, Fist.

We all need a break at times.

Hope you're okay fella.

I've started the gym and playing football regularly.

Keeps me sane.
 
Tanlic said:
I decided after that 66/1 - 93/1 betfair to sit back and watch Chepstow and Brighton.

One favourite after another either beaten or unplaced in small fields....results that belong in a horror show.
Click to expand...

...

Tanlic said:
I would have lost the lot had I backed my fancies today plus a bit. Bloody awful racing
Click to expand...

It's why I very rarely (if ever) look at midweek racing. I came to the conclusion many years that most early-week racing in particular amounts to little more than training in public.
 
Back around this time last year, I was very taken with Sovereign Queen's run in a Leicester maiden over 7f on 2nd run at 100-1. Battled well there on the stiffish Leics track, only giving way to Mr Monaco close home.

MM has turned out to be a usefulish handicapper at up to Class 2. SQ will 'only' have to get anywhere near that run in this Newcastle class 6 at 7.45 this evening. 33-1 available.

Yard whisper says she wasn't right last time. Much of the rest of the field are exposed class 5 or 6 performers. Today might be the day.
 
Awful run from Queeny, one to avoid forever unless a very good reason comes to light. Even then would want at least 66 and heading towards 100 on the Exchange.
 
chaumi said:
Awful run from Queeny, one to avoid forever unless a very good reason comes to light. Even then would want at least 66 and heading towards 100 on the Exchange.
Click to expand...

chaumi said:
Awful run from Queeny, one to avoid forever unless a very good reason comes to light. Even then would want at least 66 and heading towards 100 on the Exchange.
Click to expand...
Vet reported that it bled
 
Cambridgeshire - Aalto 66/1 (Unibet), 4 places - I was very impressed with his Bunbury Cup win and checked his dosage and striding data. Both sets of figures point to his idea trip being some way further than that. His dosage is pointing to 12f and his stride data to 10f. He obviously isn't short of pace and could well be suited by such a strongly run event. I'm more than happy to take the punt. He'll be only 5lbs higher than for the Bunbury Cup and looked to me like had at least that in reserve. We shall see.
 
Looks like Aalto is down to run in the 7f handicap at Ascot on Sat (1.35) with Richard Kingscote declared to ride. Maybe just lining up for the big race 3 weeks later? (he's currently at 40 for that, but looking at those above there are question marks over enough to suggest he'll be in the 35).
 
May be soft at Ascot Saturday.
First race. Streets of Gold won 2 valuable sales races as a 2yo. Proved he wasn't a mudlark when a fine 3rd in the Jersey at Royal Ascot last season. That run gives him a big chance here.
A bit in + out since. 2 lengths behind market leader Wizard of eye over c/d earlier this season. 4lb better off.
I reckon he should run well. Can get 20s in places.
Ascot 1.35.
 
Interested in Glory Call 18.55 Wolverhampton (Drifter earlier so will check ten minutes to post time to see if he has come back in a little)
Two other races I've looked at but no bets: Newbury 19.10 Supreme king - Bright and Capoles Dream for 3 against the field.
Lingfield 16.32 Two who have run well at Lingfield prev Appier and God Of Thunder.
 
Robicheaux said:
May be soft at Ascot Saturday.
First race. Streets of Gold won 2 valuable sales races as a 2yo. Proved he wasn't a mudlark when a fine 3rd in the Jersey at Royal Ascot last season. That run gives him a big chance here.
A bit in + out since. 2 lengths behind market leader Wizard of eye over c/d earlier this season. 4lb better off.
I reckon he should run well. Can get 20s in places.
Ascot 1.35.
Click to expand...

Looks like it. This is the Turftrax map from this afternoon:

Screenshot (111).png
 
Saturday, Haydock 2.25 - No Say Ever 66/1 - proper gut punt on my part. Joint-top on my figures of two seasons ago and off since disappointing on its final run. Holds an entry in the Irish Ces later this month but might need to go up the ratings/weights and coming away over here for a £100k pot. Irish stayers dominated the Ebor and other recent staying races so maybe they're just better handicapped?
 
Haydock 3.35 - Montassib 20/1, 4 places (Hills) - Everything strikes me as being right for this one to run a career best: big field, strong pace, soft ground. Hoping for a late charge and if he doesn't win I hope it's Elite Status that does!
 
When I checked the ground on Thursday it was reading soft/good-soft. Must have dried up a bit.

I don't think the bookies will do a R4 on my winnings because I got the ground wrong ;)

Round course times are coming up some way slower than the straight course and I think the near side on the straight might be slow cos it's the ones racing on the far side of the middle that are winning.
 
Desert Orchid said:
When I checked the ground on Thursday it was reading soft/good-soft. Must have dried up a bit.

I don't think the bookies will do a R4 on my winnings because I got the ground wrong ;)

Round course times are coming up some way slower than the straight course and I think the near side on the straight might be slow cos it's the ones racing on the far side of the middle that are winning.
Click to expand...
Well done DO ! Couldn't have him myself.
 
Euronymous said:
Yeah that was a big draw race, Kind of Blue reversing with Elite Status was annoying.
Click to expand...
Can Kind Of Blue reverse form with Montassib on Champions Day at Ascot? They've both shortened to first and second fav in the ante post market. I'd prefer Kind Of Blue myself. Open to more improvement.
 
TBH, I couldn't quite believe the price when I checked the form on Thursday. I have a + beside his figure in each of his races this season as I've thought him better than the bare results. If it weren't for Elite Status he'd have been my main fancy for the race but it shows the value in backing more than one where the odds allow.

I suspect the price was partly due to his absence and his below-par run at York (when they weren't coming from the back on good ground) but Kinross would have been a 10/1 today.
 
Marb said:
Can Kind Of Blue reverse form with Montassib on Champions Day at Ascot? They've both shortened to first and second fav in the ante post market. I'd prefer Kind Of Blue myself. Open to more improvement.
Click to expand...

Knee-jerk stuff from the bookies.
 
Back
Top