The 2024 'Should Be Odds-on' Thread

I thought she was cruising but didn't get home - winner is nothing special.Retirement is a distinct possibility.
 
Saturday, York 1.50 - See The Fire 3/1 - her Nassau form is the best in the race and showed she is improving. My slight concern is that she was a bit below form in the Eclipse which came only two weeks after her previous peak and it was only three weeks ago. I wouldn’t rush to attribute the defeat to the ground as her previous best form was in soft until she went to Ascot. Her last five runs were in G1 races so this G3 is also a drop in class. Her OR would give her a 6lbs advantage once her allowance is factored in and I think she should be a fraction odds on. Emily Upjohn, though, has shown three times this season that they don't always win but I'm very happy with 3/1.
 
And in the 3.00 - Audience 13/8 - There has to be a case for arguing that he should be odds-on too. I’m slightly wary of his new OR because he got a brilliant tactical ride last time that might flatter him but it does give him a massive 12lbs advantage and he’s likely to get the run of the race up front on a front-runners’ track on ground he acts well on.

Edit - the double with STF pays almost 9/1 at best prices when under 4/1 would be right if both should be odds on so I've taken that as well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
And in the 3.00 - Audience 13/8 - There has to be a case for arguing that he should be odds-on too. I’m slightly wary of his new OR because he got a brilliant tactical ride last time that might flatter him but it does give him a massive 12lbs advantage and he’s likely to get the run of the race up front on a front-runners’ track on ground he acts well on.

Edit - the double with STF pays almost 9/1 at best prices when under 4/1 would be right if both should be odds on so I've taken that as well.
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Kinross has come out so Audience has shortened to 8/13. If it wins I'm not sure I can claim it now. I think the rule 4 would have reduced the 13/8 to about 10/11.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, York 1.50 - See The Fire 3/1 - her Nassau form is the best in the race and showed she is improving. My slight concern is that she was a bit below form in the Eclipse which came only two weeks after her previous peak and it was only three weeks ago. I wouldn’t rush to attribute the defeat to the ground as her previous best form was in soft until she went to Ascot. Her last five runs were in G1 races so this G3 is also a drop in class. Her OR would give her a 6lbs advantage once her allowance is factored in and I think she should be a fraction odds on. Emily Upjohn, though, has shown three times this season that they don't always win but I'm very happy with 3/1.
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Got the job done but I was never really happy with the ride she got. Maybe Murphy was always confident and she put it to bed quite quickly.

That's the Emily Upjohn losses almost recovered.
 
Desert Orchid said:
And in the 3.00 - Audience 13/8 - There has to be a case for arguing that he should be odds-on too. I’m slightly wary of his new OR because he got a brilliant tactical ride last time that might flatter him but it does give him a massive 12lbs advantage and he’s likely to get the run of the race up front on a front-runners’ track on ground he acts well on.

Edit - the double with STF pays almost 9/1 at best prices when under 4/1 would be right if both should be odds on so I've taken that as well.
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Kicking myself for not taking the opportunity to cash out when I was getting offered something like 75% of the overall return but I waited a half a furlong and the cashout was suspended.

Edit - I'm now hearing Audience got a knock in the stalls.
 
Leopardstown 2.15 - Diego Velazquez 2/1 - looked to me like a G1 horse last time, maybe just coming good now in the second half of the season. The price drift (from 6/4) is a worry but not enough to put me off. Maljoom is the likely danger but he has a tendency to blow the start.
 
Glasgow buses...

Another one has just come along.

Leo 2.50 - Porta Fortuna 11/8 - I have her 5lbs clear of Fallen Angel and her latest win was against older horses.

I've done the double with DV which pays better than 6/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leopardstown 2.15 - Diego Velazquez 2/1 - looked to me like a G1 horse last time, maybe just coming good now in the second half of the season. The price drift (from 6/4) is a worry but not enough to put me off. Maljoom is the likely danger but he has a tendency to blow the start.
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Those two marker leaders look dodgy to me
I've had anvew bet on Power over me at 50s.
Nearly put him on the longshot thread.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leopardstown 2.15 - Diego Velazquez 2/1 - looked to me like a G1 horse last time, maybe just coming good now in the second half of the season. The price drift (from 6/4) is a worry but not enough to put me off. Maljoom is the likely danger but he has a tendency to blow the start.
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They are talking about aiming this one at the Cox Plate -for me is a disappointing sort.Drawn wide with a lot of pace on the inside -I've laid him at evens.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leopardstown 2.15 - Diego Velazquez 2/1 - looked to me like a G1 horse last time, maybe just coming good now in the second half of the season. The price drift (from 6/4) is a worry but not enough to put me off. Maljoom is the likely danger but he has a tendency to blow the start.
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The money came for him and he won at 10/11, perhaps not as easily as you'd want to see an odds-on shot win but they never really looked like getting to him once he opened up.
 
Curr 3.00 - Bedtime Story 6/5 - if I were a bookie I'd be pricing this shorter than any competitor. I wouldn't want to offer better than 1/2.
 
Thanks, DO, for your suggested double on Diego Velasquez and Porta Fortuna. I had already done the same bet but decided to up it after reading your post.

Bedtime Story, I suspect, has stood still while those around her continue to progress. Sometimes Royal Ascot 2yo form reads like ancient history by season’s end.
 
A bit of aftertiming here but I decided to hold off on Bedtime Story until Sunday morning for BOGs and then completely forgot about the race.

It's no secret that I am deeply cynical about the entire Coolmore operation, though, (for all that I think Aidan is a genius) and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the filly suddenly came back to form in a bigger race before the end of the season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
A bit of aftertiming here but I decided to hold off on Bedtime Story until Sunday morning for BOGs and then completely forgot about the race.

It's no secret that I am deeply cynical about the entire Coolmore operation, though, (for all that I think Aidan is a genius) and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the filly suddenly came back to form in a bigger race before the end of the season.
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What do the bookies know? B365 had Bedtime Story 6/5 the night before when everyone else was evens or worse. Then on raceday they suddenly came up with a super boost 13/8 when everyone else was odds-on. Mmm. Reportedly, she finished lame.
 
Saw it then forgot all about it (mind on too many other things).

Well done, IS, and another winner for the thread.

I'm hoping I can add a somewhat more spectacular one in Enfjaar (1.50 Ayr) at 4/1. I think that price is absolutely massive. He might not be too far clear on the ratings but I think you can drive a bus through the credentials of the others and Enfjaar has the most progressive profile of the field. I'd have him fractionally odds-on myself and I'll be surprised if there's any 4/1 in the morning. I'm just annoyed for missing 9/2 earlier.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm hoping I can add a somewhat more spectacular one in Enfjaar (1.50 Ayr) at 4/1. I think that price is absolutely massive. He might not be too far clear on the ratings but I think you can drive a bus through the credentials of the others and Enfjaar has the most progressive profile of the field. I'd have him fractionally odds-on myself and I'll be surprised if there's any 4/1 in the morning. I'm just annoyed for missing 9/2 earlier.
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Discretion in the face of valour salvaged most of the outlay with the each-way option, which I thought was the safe way to go, but it really should have won. Smashing the sp is no consolation but losses are minimal, thankfully.
 
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