The 2024 'Should Be Odds-on' Thread

No, that was upsetting. And do you know what really grates, I'm in my shop and fucking Luke Harvey tipped Persica, and he is clueless.
 
Formal is on the drift in the 3.00 today for reasons I fail to understand.

Deposed as fav by AOB's babbling who was available at 4/1 earlier today.

Ryan Moore rode both AOB and SMS Formal and won on both.

Formal for me was different gravy and has very soft ground experience.

I'd have Formal now 2/1.....4/6 for this match
 
1.50 Cheltenham Friday
Path d’Ouroux would have to give all of these 7lb or more if this was a handicap but is favoured by the race conditions and actually gets weight here. He should be capable of picking these up and carrying them so 11/10 (Coral/Lads) looks a steal
 
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viking said:
1.50 Cheltenham Friday
Path d’Ouroux would have to give all of these 7lb or more if this was a handicap but is favoured by the race conditions and actually gets weight here. He should be capable of picking these up and carrying them so 11/10 loads a steal
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Yeah was looking to load up on him.
Slight caveat though, the Elliot horse is down to run today in the 16.13 @ Clonmel, so I'd imagine a chunky rule 4 will apply, either that or the markets will be reformed.
Let's hope Gordon does the right thing and pulls her out today!
 
viking said:
1.50 Cheltenham Friday
Path d’Ouroux would have to give all of these 7lb or more if this was a handicap but is favoured by the race conditions and actually gets weight here. He should be capable of picking these up and carrying them so 11/10 (Coral/Lads) looks a steal
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Well that was close and certainly not the way you’d have expected him to win. Was expecting a hefty R4 but Lads have paid me £32 on top of my £28 stake so I’m happy with that
 
Friday, Chel 1.45 - Buddy One 5/1 - I came online hoping I might get a decent odds-against price about this one, hoping for maybe 13/8 or 7/4 about what I reckon should be odds-on.

I was genuinely staggered to see 5/1 on offer and I have gone in more heavily than I'd intended to at that price.

Christmas six weeks early.

Buddy One is 10lbs and more better than any of this field over hurdles and really only has to show that level and get round safely to hack up.

Whether it's trying is another matter but it has raided successfully before and, if memory serves, was quite a gamble in one of his hurdles wins.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, Chel 1.45 - Buddy One 5/1 - I came online hoping I might get a decent odds-against price about this one, hoping for maybe 13/8 or 7/4 about what I reckon should be odds-on.

I was genuinely staggered to see 5/1 on offer and I have gone in more heavily than I'd intended to at that price.

Christmas six weeks early.

Buddy One is 10lbs and more better than any of this field over hurdles and really only has to show that level and get round safely to hack up.

Whether it's trying is another matter but it has raided successfully before and, if memory serves, was quite a gamble in one of his hurdles wins.
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I agree Desert looks a huge price based on official ratings
I can only assume several are considered better than their current marks.
Best of luck.
 
I disagree completely. Not saying it can't win but odds-on?? No way - He doesn't look the most natural of jumpers for a kick off. I'd sooner back him than the short Jonjo thing but I got 9/2 Hyland earlier in the week and I'm happy enough with that.
 
Saturday 1.45 - L'Eau Du Sud 6/5 - it already has gone odds-on in a place or two. He was a class above this level of opponent over hurdles and would win on that form and is entitled to come on another 10lbs for chasing.

I've taken the win double with the Friday horse for just under 9/1. I do think that is massive but nothing is guaranteed in this game.
 
Euronymous said:
I disagree completely. Not saying it can't win but odds-on?? No way - He doesn't look the most natural of jumpers for a kick off. I'd sooner back him than the short Jonjo thing but I got 9/2 Hyland earlier in the week and I'm happy enough with that.
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Well done
 
Well done Euro. You called it and got a great price about the winner.

I only just remembered about the race and missed it live. I haven't seen the replay but my suspicion is that BO wasn't supposed to win today. I suspect the way the winner was backed connections knew they didn't have to worry about BO.

I'll wait until the money comes before backing it again.
 
Buddy One jumped 3 out very hesitantly and had clouted one or two before that. Euro was spot on to cast doubt on his jumping and I think it’s nonsense to say he wasn’t there to win
 
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