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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Funny old race which was stop/start and several including Alexei pulled a bit too hard which didn't help hugely. Lugging 12st in that loose ground plus allowing the winner to get first run was just too much. He will come back from that....and still win me some more Darkie points hopefully.
 
3:05 Kempton Friday
Maskarvel 33s

First run in UK for new trainer having some decent bumper form in Ireland over the summer. Couple of the more experienced horses have obvious chances but none of them look like superstars, worth a go at the price
 
Backed Il Est Francais ew on Tuesday as I think if the two Irish horses still havent got over the Punchestown race he could be the one to benefit as he seems to a Kempton horse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Christmas Hdle - Rubaud 20/1 - see the race thread for the possibly-flawed rationale.
Click to expand...

I have to say I was pleased enough with that run even though third place didn't pay. I even thought turning for home that it would be second at worst but it was entitled to beat Celtic Dino on the figures, which it has done.

Golden Ace appears to have run to form. Taking her OR (152)as a guide, Sir Gino has given her a 14lbs beating (so 166) plus:

a) whatever more he had in hand
b) he wasted energy in the first mile running keenly
c) however much he comes on for the race

I reckon we're looking at a comfortably 172+ horse, worthy of being favourite for the Champion Hurdle, assuming that is the target, since, for me, that kind f rating would be more than enough to take care of State Man.

It does make me wonder, though, how big a cert the real Constitution Hill would be if he could be relied upon to get over his hurdles, given they weren't keen on Sir G taking him on.

It's just so saddening what has become of one of the best ever.
 
Leo 3.00 - Sandor Clegane 40/1, 6 places (Sky, if they let you...) - hoping, against hope probably, that he retains some of the ability that saw him finish an excellent fourth to Fact To File in the 2024 Brown Advisory and to Spillane's Tower at Punchestown. Was kept over hurdles all of last season and now after three modest efforts back over fences this season finds himself getting in here off 136. Could the plan since 2024 have been the 2026 Grand National? A big run here could see him off a mark in the mid-high 140s at Aintree, maybe just enough to sneak in near the bottom of the weights.

Then again, the real target might be Sunday's milk round.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had a look at the RP ratings for the Welsh National last night. These are the top 12.

View attachment 24672

If the top weight stands its ground the second on that screenshot is going to be some way out of the weights even if it makes the cut. Rock My Way is one of the favourites so I'm assuming Tommie Beau is the wrong price at 100/1.

Knowing I can't back it with Hills (the only firm going the odds) online I decided to take a wee detour from my thrice-weekly visit to Aldi via the local shop, the first time I have tried to place a bet in a shop for some years.

I'm wondering if my experience is the way it is everywhere?

There was a time the counterhand would look at the slip and say, "I need to phone Head Office for this."

The lad behind the counter seemed not to know the first thing about the sport. I wrote out my slip for Tommie Beau and asked quietly for the 100/1. He put the slip through the machine and handed it back to me.

I said, "Do you not need to put the odds on the slip?"

"Oh, do you want the odds?"

"Yes, please, 100/1."

He went on to his machine and after about ten minutes said, "I'm not seeing that race on here."

This doddering old technophobe had to walk him through the process:

Ante-post > National Hunt > ...

"Is it that race next week?"

"No."

"Is it the King George..."

"No," I hastily interrupted, it's after that. Keep scrolling..."

"Is it... no... ah, here it is..."

"Tommie Beau...Tommie Beau...Tommie Beau... I'm not seeing it... Ah, there it is..."

That's about twenty minutes of my life I'll never get back. Tommie Beau should at least do the decent thing and pay me for it.
Click to expand...
Tempted by 20/1 Tommie Beau in the XC tomorrow?
I don't think I saw the circumstances in which he ran out when racing this course in Nov 24, but he was favourite for that race off 143. Now off 128.
 

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