1000 Guineas (and beyond)
- Thread starter Gamla Stan
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Gamla Stan
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Keen to take the classic form on, I don't think it's worth zip.
Strawberrydaiquiri and Rainfall look the ones at the prices.
Strawberrydaiquiri and Rainfall look the ones at the prices.
Irish Stamp
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No Joanna at the entries stage but she did beat her elders amongst others under a Group 2 penalty in the 7f Group 3 Prix Porte De Maillot at Longchamp on Saturday. The Prix Maurice De Gheest is up next.
I agree - not sure the Spacious form is all that much to write home about either.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I don't agree. Mainly because this is the first time Special Duty will have had proper fast ground to run on since the Cheveley Park. Can't understand why she isn't favourite to be honest.
Gamla Stan
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I can't understand why she isn't favourite either to be honest ahead of Lillie Langtry who beat the same horses she's beat before and the break will have done Special Duty some good.
Having had a look at the race in more detail, I've taken some 9/1 about Rainfall, she looks very progressive and whilst I'm wary about taking Ascot form literally, she beat some useful colts in that Jersey which counts for a lot and in a very very smart time.
Having had a look at the race in more detail, I've taken some 9/1 about Rainfall, she looks very progressive and whilst I'm wary about taking Ascot form literally, she beat some useful colts in that Jersey which counts for a lot and in a very very smart time.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Red Jazz has let that form down for me. That was a poor race he didn't win the other day.
Gamla Stan
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Hmmm to be fair, Red Jazz has had a tough season and I'd have expected him to have hit the wall at some point.
Gamla Stan
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Queally now rides Special Duty as Pasquier is still injured and his replacement Lemaire has now broken his leg.
Great show of support from the owner.
Great show of support from the owner.
Desert Orchid
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Yes, but the older ones are G2 at best (and even then, that's pushing it, I reckon).
Queally on Special Duty would be reason enough not to back it. I'll probably leave the race alone or go for something to turn around previous form.
swedish chef
At the Start
I think Lillie Langtry looks the most progressive in the field but I'm all over Spacious e/way at the prices especially with Fanshawe's record in this race. Also her 1L third to Goldikova in this race last year looks the best form in my book.
Spacious/Lillie Langtry - in a photo finish
3rd Strawberrydaquiri
Always dangerous posting this type of prediction as it often makes a fool of you
but thats how I see the race unfolding.
Spacious/Lillie Langtry - in a photo finish
3rd Strawberrydaquiri
Always dangerous posting this type of prediction as it often makes a fool of you
but thats how I see the race unfolding.
Desert Orchid
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We're getting to that stage in the season where the early stars start to lose their form and those more patiently handled start to bloom.
I largely avoid fillies/mares races bar the G1s and don't like going in too heavily on them at the best of times so I've backed what I consider value angles today.
There have been cases made that Music Show has been unlucky in running this season. I'm not sure I buy into them but I felt there was a decent case for backing Music Show at Ascot and I don't think she got the run of the race there. They keep taking on the top races with her so they don't seem to be accepting that she's not up to the job. She's at a bigger price today and I reckon if I was willing to back her at shorter at Ascot, I should be willing to back her today.
I backed Gile Na Greine at Newmarket at huge odds and got a great run for my money. It isn't hard to forgive her bad run at the Curragh and she ran well at Ascot. Again, they don't seem afraid to take on the winner again and at 20/1 I reckon there might be a bit of value there, especially if 4/1 place-only materialises.
Lillie Langtry is obviously the one to beat but is she the one to bet? I reckon fillies are less likely to show their very best form in two quickish races at this stage of the year so wouldn't want to get involved with her.
As I said earlier, the older fillies aren't G1 types and the 3yos don't seem much better, so it will only take a modicum of improvement from the classic generation to make sure the door is firmly shut on the older ones.
I largely avoid fillies/mares races bar the G1s and don't like going in too heavily on them at the best of times so I've backed what I consider value angles today.
There have been cases made that Music Show has been unlucky in running this season. I'm not sure I buy into them but I felt there was a decent case for backing Music Show at Ascot and I don't think she got the run of the race there. They keep taking on the top races with her so they don't seem to be accepting that she's not up to the job. She's at a bigger price today and I reckon if I was willing to back her at shorter at Ascot, I should be willing to back her today.
I backed Gile Na Greine at Newmarket at huge odds and got a great run for my money. It isn't hard to forgive her bad run at the Curragh and she ran well at Ascot. Again, they don't seem afraid to take on the winner again and at 20/1 I reckon there might be a bit of value there, especially if 4/1 place-only materialises.
Lillie Langtry is obviously the one to beat but is she the one to bet? I reckon fillies are less likely to show their very best form in two quickish races at this stage of the year so wouldn't want to get involved with her.
As I said earlier, the older fillies aren't G1 types and the 3yos don't seem much better, so it will only take a modicum of improvement from the classic generation to make sure the door is firmly shut on the older ones.
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These two should be almost half the price they currently are.
When I think like this though I usually think I have got the principles wrong.
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Regardless of the result, I have to disagree with you - 2/1 or 9/4 Lillie Langtry is the worst price I've seen in a Group 1 this season.
Strawberrydaiquiri is a huge price. I've just backed her 7 in the win and 2.12 in the place.
Strawberrydaiquiri is a huge price. I've just backed her 7 in the win and 2.12 in the place.
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Gamla Stan
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I'm with Rainfall E/W and strong. One my most confident bets in a Group One this year.
She's not got much to beat and not got to improve much from Ascot.
She's not got much to beat and not got to improve much from Ascot.
If Strawberrydaiquiri is a huge price, Spacious must be even better place value given her form with your selection at Ascot?
davidjohnson
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Lillie Langtry's Coronation win is the best of the 3-y-o form. Whilst it's true enough that the 3-y-o fillies might not be a great bunch, it's worth remembering that the older fillies have to prove they are any better than Group 2 standard. Spacious has been put in her place numerous times at the top level and Strawberrydaquiri was all out to beat her at Ascot. I wouldn't want to lay Lillie Langtry at much bigger than her current odds.
Spacious has run above her usual level elsewhere the past two years in that race.
I also thought Strawberrydaiqiri has a lot more to come, probably did too much too early, and is one of those horses, like Giants Causeway, who only does enough.
Regardless, surely you would say the price discrepancy between LL and Special Duty is very strange?