2 Mile Chasers 20/21

For those interested, another article on the RP about Sky Pirate, with his former jockey Nick Schofield, adding to what Jonjo said, in not ruling out the Arkle.
 
My first trawl of the Champion Chase.

I've restricted it to those with marks of 170 or better plus those with more likely potential to get there, esp last season's novices. Mares' allowances are added.

[TABLE="width: 417"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]CBO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Politologue[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]? (175?)[/TD]
[TD]6/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Notebook[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]? v[/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Defi Du Seuil[/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD]d[/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Chacun Pour Soi[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]+ (175?)[/TD]
[TD]6/4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Altior[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]+ [/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Min[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Waiting Patiently[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]+ t[/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Rouge Vif[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]? +?[/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Greaneteen[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]28/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Nube Negra[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Chatham Street Lad[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p t[/TD]
[TD]100/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Put The Kettle On[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[TD]14/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fakir D'oudairies[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[TD]50/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


I can't say I'm entirely comfortable with some of the ratings. Obviously Altior's old form is some way better than any of them and plenty of the Irish ones will be going for longer races.

Also, a lot of the Irish 'trials' are striking me as very falsely run, going by times and collateral lines.

You would almost think they were being trained with just one day in mind...

I have to be happy with my Politologue bet. I just hope Nicholls doesn't fvck up its prep.

I've also heard Ruby rave about Min's best form, as though it's better than any of these but he might need a track like Aintree to show it.

Edit - I've edited the table to include current best odds (CBO) with the main bookies but not the exchanges.

It's hard to know exactly which horses, especially the Irish, will turn up in this but if any misfortune were to befall Chacun Pour Soi it would fairly rumble things up.

I hadn't really given too much thought to this race but it looks like it could fall apart a bit so I've taken 20/1 Notebook to add to my ante-post log.

I'm slightly concerned that he's disappointed on both trips to Cheltenham so far but he was 5/2 fav for last year's Arkle following some impressive form beforehand. He had been 50/1 for the Ballymore the year before so I can dismiss that run readily enough.

It's hard to see Blackmore deserting PTKO (assuming she would have the choice) but come the day, Notebook might be entitled to be around the 8/1 mark.
 
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Henry told the owners of PTKO that he will be disappointed if she doesn’t finish in the first 3 in the Champion Chase -not sure how RB can desert her -when did she last ride her.
 
I'd be surprised if she doesn't run in the Champion Chase. I think both her and Notebook are now the next best behind Chacun. Hopefully they go back to the front-running tactics that served her well previously.
 
First Flow up to 166.

Probably under-rates it. Looks like the handicapper is taking a very conservative view of the form.
 
Euronymous said:
I think you have to given the track.
Click to expand...

I agree, Euro, but the handicapper might not think he's being conservative.

This is where 'private handicappers' (if I may be so pretentious) can have an edge. There's no holding them back from committing to big figures if that's what the form is telling them.

If we take Royale P's race, for instance: the handicapper probably took Potters Legend as running to its rating and allowed RP 10lbs for 16 lengths in heavy ground at the trip. When I'm looking at the race I'll be looking at Potters Legend (a definite trier on the day but not handicapped to win a race of this nature) running to my own previous best for him, a few pounds ahead of his OR, and rate RP on that basis. Then I'll look at the next couple home and see if their marks tie in closely to my own and tweak the figures if necessary. That usually puts my own ratings a few pounds higher than ORs. They're generally a few pounds higher than RPRs.
 
FF is now at the stage where his handicap mark is more or less irrelevant (other than for academic interest). It’s Grade 1’s for the foreseeable.
 
Not really irrelevant, though, in the sense that in those future G1s we'll be able to compare how his OR next to others stands with how he stands in the market next to others.

It will be some time though, if ever, before we see him in a handicap, for sure.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not really irrelevant, though, in the sense that in those future G1s we'll be able to compare how his OR next to others stands with how he stands in the market next to others.

It will be some time though, if ever, before we see him in a handicap, for sure.
Click to expand...

Fair comment, though race conditions (track, going) usually more of a factor for me than ORs, when it comes to Grade 1s.
 
First Flow has zero chance in the Queen Mother. Having him 6 point shorter than Notebook is ridiculous and the latter is surely backable given the different prep this year that should see him cherry ripe in March and the lack of a crowd to buzz him up.
 
Euronymous said:
First Flow has zero chance in the Queen Mother. Having him 6 point shorter than Notebook is ridiculous and the latter is surely backable given the different prep this year that should see him cherry ripe in March and the lack of a crowd to buzz him up.
Click to expand...

Fully agree.

Its also led me to backing and naming it the ‘Gigginstown each way lucky 15’

Abacadabras - 16/1 Champion Hurdle
Notebook - 20/1 Chanpion Chase
Samcro - 18/1 Ryanair
Fury Road - 20/1 Stayers Hurdle
142,441/1

Ridiculous pricing for me.
 
Notebook is a huge price. I have tipped at him all year.

Last year was bad in March but I have full confidence in his jumping

Henry could get Sizing pipe ripe in March after dissappointing earlier runs so no doubt he gets there ready to roll
 
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I've tried to get a decent handle of the First flow form but not coming up with anything anywhere near as sensational as it looked on the day.

I have the handicap won by Dashel Drasher 10lbs faster (strong form for future hcaps) and FF is only 16lbs faster than the other hcap winner Enqarde, which was put up to 'just' 132 for his win.

I can't help thinking that it was just one of those days when getting into a rhythm up front might have been the key,that it was impossible to come from off the pace - it looked that way in the other chases - and I'm wondering if Politologue stayed the trip in the ground at the track.

The trip the other day was 3 yards over 2m 1f, uphill from Swinley bottom and no rest for the wicked the way FF went.

At Cheltenham Politologue might get a breather coming downhill, as well as maybe being fitter.

It's possible sectionals will tell us the mid-race pace was fast and that they were going slow late but I haven't seen them yet and the three chases on the day were at different trips so comparison is difficult. I might tray and check out the comparative speeds over the final four fences to see if they shed any light. If, for example, the longer races were faster at that stage it would point to an over-fast gallop in FF's race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It's possible sectionals will tell us the mid-race pace was fast and that they were going slow late but I haven't seen them yet and the three chases on the day were at different trips so comparison is difficult. I might tray and check out the comparative speeds over the final four fences to see if they shed any light. If, for example, the longer races were faster at that stage it would point to an over-fast gallop in FF's race.
Click to expand...

No sooner said...

I've just seen Simon Rowlands's sectional take:

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/se...use-at-ascot-and-the-stewards'-cup-at-sha-tin.
 
It might be that Ascot Chase course is the trickiest in the UK to get right, given the number of extra-ordinary performances it seems to produce. Personally, putting proper pace into the race through the middle stages seems to be central to the most exciting finishes. (probably because it provides a 'he can't keep going at this pace' will-he, wont-he scenario.)
 
HawkWing said:
Personally, putting proper pace into the race through the middle stages seems to be central to the most exciting finishes. (probably because it provides a 'he can't keep going at this pace' will-he, wont-he scenario.)
Click to expand...

I'd go along with that, HW.
 
littlelad said:
Camera work is always good for the chases also
Click to expand...

Yes. There's also something iconic (do they still do it?) about ringing the bell as they turn for home.

I wish they'd go back to the stands' side camera angle approaching the home turn at Kempton. Nowadays they've either almost or already completed the turn before they switch. It's almost as deflating as not getting the head-on view of them taking Becher's.
 
granger said:
Notebook is a huge price. I have tipped at him all year.

Last year was bad in March but I have full confidence in his jumping

Henry could get Sizing pipe ripe in March after dissappointing earlier runs so no doubt he gets there ready to roll
Click to expand...

I'm of the opinion the DRF finished him last year. He's interesting
 
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granger said:
Notebook is a huge price. I have tipped at him all year.

Last year was bad in March but I have full confidence in his jumping

Henry could get Sizing pipe ripe in March after dissappointing earlier runs so no doubt he gets there ready to roll
Click to expand...

I'm of the opinion the DRF finished him last year. He's interesting
 
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