2 Mile Chasers 20/21

HawkWing said:
Career best RPRs 180 to 178. You overestimate Altior.
Click to expand...

Not sure I’d want to go to court armed only with RPR’s as evidence myself.

Altior has disappointed once in his 16 chase starts. Douvan has disappointed thrice in his 15 chase starts

Altior has won two Champion Chases. Douvan has failed to win either of his two Champion Chase outings. Did Douvan have excuses? Almost certainly.

I don’t think pulling their respective Arkles out for explicit scrutiny helps; principally because you can pick holes in both without too much effort.

Clearly, Douvan has had his problems, but we shouldn’t let misty-eyed recollection of what might have been, taint our judgement of either horse. Both were top-class, and it would be a brave man who would call it between the pair with confidence.

If there is a difference at all between them, then it’s down to style not substance; and flashier types like Douvan almost always win over more people than the resolute types like Altior.
 
Last edited:
The response was to douvan at his best wouldn't get a sniff of altiors arse.

Your last paragraph suggests you disagree. As I do.

How often they disappointed has nothing to do with the argument. It is convenient to forget that the reason altior was thought a possible king George candidate was how he struggled and ground out his wins at Cheltenham. Even in last year's game spirit - sceaux royal etc looked to have had him in trouble.

He is a super horse but 'he would have won the QM as a novice' and ' douvan at his best wouldn't have got a sniff of his arse' over rates him.
 
Like I said, HW, it would take a brave man to be bold on one at the expense of the other, but it is a game of opinions.

As you have correctly surmised, I don’t happen to agree with DO in his assessment, but it’s something he’s entitled to hold (and you challenge).

When a horse disappoints in a championship race, I think it often is relevant - insofar as people’s perceptions are concerned, at any rate - and I mentioned it in that context only.

As for Altior, the KG run was less about them being worried about vulnerabilty at 2m, and more about satisfying Henderson’s curiosity and shutting everyone up about it one way or the other (imho).
 
I expect he wouldn't get a sniff of his arse is because Altior would be the one sniffing!
 
Altior and Douvan both amazing horses, if only Douvan wasn't made of glass. I can see the arguments for both, maybe I'd just give it to Altior (4 Festival wins would shade it).
Neither could live with 2013 Sprinter Sacre though IMO.
 
And for what it's worth, I don't think there was a horse alive that could have beaten Vautour in his JLT.

And to reiterate, I don't think that Douvan at his best would definitely beat Altior at his best. I think it would be close. It is highly unlikely that the imagined race would be at Cheltenham.
 
Last edited:
It's not a remark I would make lightly but I'd like to think I was allowed a little bit of leeway in terms of using hyperbole to express my opinion.

Cards on the table, those who know me best away from the forum know that I have problems with my eyesight these days and about this time last year I binned my old form archives in frustration so I'm at the mercy of the RP database and my memory for these things but earlier posts made me want to check the latter.

Altior's top RPR is 183 in the QM when he slaughtered Min (another touch of hyperbole but you get what I'm saying - a wide-margin win in a race like the QM in the style with which it was achieved was a big enough deal at the time) is very high class. I recall going higher with it myself but, as I say, the archive isn't there.

Douvan's Arkle (not the QM) win in 2016 saw him record his career-highest Cheltenham RPR of just 165, when rated 161 he beat the 150-rated Sizing John by 7L and the handicapper didn't change his OR for it! He was rated 174 in the following year's QM but went lame too far out to know if he would have won but it's fair to assume that he would have because the winner went up to 'only' 167.

He fell in the Altior-Min QM when rated 170 but was 9/2 compared with Altior's even money odds. He fell too far out to know how he might have fared but Min was raised to 168 and only went up to 172 when he slaughtered Politologue by 20L at Aintree over a year later. Altior went up to 175 for the win. Let's assume for the moment Douvan could have run to 174. Altior's RPR for the race is 183! That converts to ten lengths at the trip.

So, over 2m at Cheltenham, Douvan's highest RPR is 165. Altior's is 183.

I should be allowed to rest my case there but no doubt I won't. :)

PS - My top rating for Vautour is 177 for that Ryanair.
 
Last edited:
I know it was hyperbole, but it's not to be taken seriously but it's the type of discussion that keeps this place going. I think rather than overrating altior, its underrated douvan. Also, I am comparing the horses at their best - not at Cheltenham, not on varying ground etc. Its not comparing arkles to queen mother's. Just who was at their best, the more talented horse. No matter how much altior scrambles in, it is superstar performance. Even if it's all out to bear politologue by 1.5l, sceaux royal by 3 or hell's kitchen by 8.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Altior's top RPR is 183 in the QM when he slaughtered Min (another touch of hyperbole but you get what I'm saying - a wide-margin win in a race like the QM in the style with which it was achieved was a big enough deal at the time) is very high class. I recall going higher with it myself but, as I say, the archive isn't there.
Click to expand...

If the style we are talking about is being unable to keep up with god's own, ordinary world coming down the hill before picking up and outstaying min from the last to slaughter him by 7l, then yes it looked as if he would be even better over further. Altior most impressive Cheltenham performance was always his supreme. Should be noted that Douvan beat Min by 10l a month later. The form can be written many ways to suit the argument.

Anyway, I'm being disingenuous now.
 
Last edited:
I'm pretty much in line with Maurice with regards ratings (slightly lower for Altior), but Douvan never really got the opportunity to show us how good he could be over fences. The time we should have found out was when he went lame in the Champion Chase in 2017, but it wasn't to be. In 2018 he went like a scalded cat and fell. We never found out, but he went too quick and had a full year between races anyway, so it's likely he would have run out of petrol.

The truth is we measure the very best horses careers by their Cheltenham Championship record, and not in their equivalents at Aintree and Punchestown. Therefore it's impossible to compare the two because of the misfortune Douvan had. Taken literally, Altior is clearly the better two mile chaser as he has the record to back it up. Douvan may have been able to emulate him, or he may not, none of us really know. But that's both the beauty of racing and of this place. We like to nail our colours to the mast and it makes for great debate.
 
Last edited:
Maruco said:
I'm pretty much in line with Maurice with regards ratings (slightly lower for Altior), but Douvan never really got the opportunity to show us how good he could be over fences. The time we should have found out was when he went lame in the Champion Chase in 2017, but it wasn't to be. In 2018 he went like a scalded cat and fell. We never found out, but he went too quick and had a full year between races anyway, so it's likely he would have run out of petrol.

The truth is we measure the very best horses careers by their Cheltenham Championship record, and not in their equivalents at Aintree and Punchestown. Therefore it's impossible to compare the two because of the misfortune Douvan had. Taken literally, Altior is clearly the better two mile chaser as he has the record to back it up. Douvan may have been able to emulate him, or he may not, none of us really know. But that's both the beauty of racing and of this place. We like to nail our colours to the mast and it makes for great debate.
Click to expand...

Don't agree with the cheltenham thing - Desert Orchid goes down in history as being more than a couple of pounds better than Yahoo.

Actually, Altior is a far better horse than he has shown at Cheltenham, IMO.
 
Last edited:
Everybody accepts the Dessie phenomenon: brilliant horse, moderate at Cheltenham.

Douvan's record at the track is inconclusive.

Altior's isn't.

My understanding of the original premise was the comparison re the QM. Did I misread that?
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
.

Douvan's record at the track is inconclusive.

Altior's isn't.
Click to expand...


True, and I've never seen a horse power up the hill like Altior. However that first QM he was in trouble in a couple of spots Iirc Min went odds on IR and I have to wonder how many of these horses would have beaten him that day if at their best(s):

Moscow Flyer
Azertyuiop
Well Chief
Master Minded
Sprinter Sacre
 
Now I'm at a disadvantage not having my archives.

Off the top of my head, I'd say Sprinter definitely but he was truly something else.

The rest I'm not so sure about.

I'll try and do a wee trawl of back-rating but I accept it will leave me open to accusations of framing the evidence to suit my argument.

I will try and be as objective as possible.

Honest :cool:
 
Last edited:
Moscow Flyer - top OR 180, top RPR 182 ('05 QM, when beating the mighty Well Chief fully two lengths, earning him both those ratings. He followed it up with an easy 14lbs beating of the 158-rated Le Roi Miguel (aka 'the wonder horse') but never got near that RPR 182 again. I remember at the time wondering if the 2-milers were generally over-rated during that era with Azertyuiop et al.

As I've been typing that paragraph, it has occurred to me that I might have the books for that era in a box in the loft. I'll try and have a look before it gets dark.

So for the time being, I would argue that Moscow wouldn't unduly trouble Altior.
 
4/5 of the horses in that list are right at the top of my list of all time favourites. Master Mind is the one that that watching live at Sandown and then at Cheltenham made me go WTF! Perhaps I feel more towards the others because I followed them over a longer period but twice with him he put in performances which I could not believe were possible. You might be able to knock my reasoning down with stats but never change my opinion.
 
Azertyuiop - Highest RPR 179 (four times, two of which were in handicaps); top OR 178 (Feb-April '05), in the first of them giving the 178-rated Well Chief 4lbs and a 2½L beating - call it 7lbs - at Newbury (Game Spirit) but I would argue that Well Chief was badly ridden that day, held up out of his ground, possibly being saved for the festival. That win may have taken the edge off Azertyuiop as he flunked it the big one four weeks later. Five weeks after that he was reportedly struck into when Well Chief beat him 4L at Sandown but there were some modest horses not beaten far and RPRs go low for the race, WC only getting 172 for it.

I would dismiss Azertyuiop as a credible challenger to Altior.
 
I think its clear that its very hard for horses to back up otherwordly performances.

All day, every day Moscow Flyer. But I don't see him beating Sprinter Sacre at his best (even if Geraghty always dodges the question) and I cant imagine ANY horse beating Master Minded on his QM win over VPU. I guess there are days like that, even if the pounds and ounces go against them - BM's 2nd Gold Cup being another.
 
Altior had a racecourse gallop today and is on track for the Tingle Creek.

Other interesting comments from Henderson were that Champ may go to Ireland for the big chase over there at Christmas, rather than run in the King George.
 
Back
Top