2 Mile Chasers 21/22

Grasshopper said:
Fair enough, reet, but I think this analysis fails to account for the fact that Shishkin is probably just as strong a stayer as Energumene. The suggestion that Shishkin’s stamina might start to give-out through a stronger gallop is misplaced, imo. He won a 3m point, and in his only rules run at 2m4f, he was still full of running at the line.
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Nay, Grass. a 2 1/4 sharp track novice and a steadily run PTP aren't gd1 chases, and Nicky has nailed his colours to the mast on Shiskin's future plans.
One thing is certain, imo, should they both turn up on the day, is that the Irish horse will be ridden much more positively than he was in the Clarence House, which will surely show what they really think of yesterday's debacle.
 
Again, fair enough.

Instead then, look at how he finished his races in the Supreme Novices or the Desert Orchid.

Shishkin is a thorough stayer at the minimum trip, and would get 2m4f over fences just as easily as Energumene, imo.

Interesting to note that Townend felt he’d gone “too fast” yesterday. Maybe worth factoring that in, if you think he needs to ride more aggressively at Cheltenham.
 
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reet hard said:
Nay, Grass. a 2 1/4 sharp track novice and a steadily run PTP aren't gd1 chases, and Nicky has nailed his colours to the mast on Shiskin's future plans.
One thing is certain, imo, should they both turn up on the day, is that the Irish horse will be ridden much more positively than he was in the Clarence House, which will surely show what they really think of yesterday's debacle.
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Blimey, reet, that’s very harsh. By all reports Energumene’s stride was shortening and he was emptying fast, so it’s difficult to see how a more positive ride would have helped, quite the reverse most likely. Townend had already given him a very positive ride trying to make the most of his high cruising speed and if he didn’t go when you thought he should then it was probably because he knew he had to hold him together to get him home. The general view is that he gave him a super ride and I’ll go along with that. Maybe if he had been a tad less positive Energumene would have had a bit more left at the end and it may well be that they try this rather than pushing him harder next time.

Can’t wait for next time, but my real worry is if they both fade away in the QM (highly unlikely, I hope) when yesterday’s “hard” race will be blamed and our stars wrapped in even heavier layers of cotton wool. It was, after all, lovely to see a proper hard fought battle between top horses, rather than the never ending fare of hopelessly one-sided “prep” runs to feed the Cheltenham monster.
 
Grasshopper said:
Again, fair enough.

Instead then, look at how he finished his races in the Supreme Novices or the Desert Orchid.

Shishkin is a thorough stayer at the minimum trip, and would get 2m4f over fences just as easily as Energumene, imo.

Interesting to note that Townend felt he’d gone “too fast” yesterday. Maybe worth factoring that in, if you think he needs to ride more aggressively at Cheltenham.
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I'll concede a high class hurdler is likely to stay as well over fences, but the bigger ones need jumping, and (imo) Eng wins, hands-down in the likely hurly-burly of a QMCC .
 
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This thread has been great.

I think the rematch will be even better. If you are in the Energumene camp, what tactics give you the best chance in March?

1) Go full tilt and put Shishkin on the floor
2) Set a steady pace to blunt Shishkin's staying power
3) Is there another option?
 
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think i'd go 1), and simply hope you are far enough ahead at the last for him to comeback. steady pace just means shishkin stalks and turns on the afterburners after the last and goes by, not convinced energumene simply outpaces him in a dash at the end
 
reet hard said:
I'll concede a high class hurdler is likely to stay as well over fences, but the bigger ones need jumping, and (imo) Eng wins, hands-down in the likely hurly-burly of a QMCC .
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I think concerns about Shishkin’s jumping are as over-played as concerns about his flat-spot, tbh.

As for hurly-burly, you won’t see a scrappier race than Shishkin’s Supreme, where he came from nowhere to win. There are also zero concerns about the track for him - indeed, it’s entirely a positive.

Contrast that with Energumene, who is completely unproven at Cheltenham, and I have to think “hands-down” is either hyperbole, or you’re still on it from last night!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Send Energumene to the Ryanair :cool:
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Willie was asked about a rematch (I think it was on ITV rather than Sky) and said "sure, there is no where else he can go".

The only chance Energumene has is to do pretty much the same and hope the shorter trip - about a furlong shorter - allows him to get home. CPS will be interesting third party. He will want to go flat out from beginning also.
 
Slim said:
This thread has been great.

I think the rematch will be even better. If you are in the Energumene camp, what tactics give you the best chance in March?

1) Go full tilt and put Shishkin on the floor
2) Set a steady pace to blunt Shishkin's staying power
3) Is there another option?
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IMO, you can’t beat Shishkin tactically - you have to improve.
 
Grasshopper said:
IMO, you can’t beat Shishkin tactically - you have to improve.
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You'd think he hosed up. As a Shiskin backer yesterday, and a fan, Energumene had him beat bar for the last 100 yards. Nico thought he was beaten. I didn't think he could do that. Shiskin is being talked about as an unstoppable force as if he has a secret 10l in his back pocket accessible at any time. He was outpaced in the Supreme, made mistakes and frankly I dont think he wins if Asterion keeps straight, given the hole he was in. He was very scrambly to beat Funambule Sivola at Aintree. He is a great horse, but only about 1l better than Energumene.
 
So…..Energumene needs to improve then?

I haven’t done anything to run Energumene down, and think he is an outstanding horse. But everything went his way yesterday (didn’t get into a fight for a lead, led at his own pace, going right-handed etc), and he still couldn’t win. I don’t think he has to improve very-much to beat Shishkin, but it’s a fact (OK, my opinion), that he has to improve. Different tactics (again, imo) won’t make any difference.
 
Grasshopper said:
So…..Energumene needs to improve then?
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Not necessarily. If they were running that race again in 2 weeks time (same conditions) I would have it as a 50/50. Shiskin would need to pull out all the stops again to beat Energumene, when there is that little between them. I don't buy that he had an easy lead yesterday. He gets an "easy lead" because no horse wanted to go the pace he was going. It wasnt Politologue that First Flow was up against.

The Champion Chase is over a furlong shorter, on different ground (I think that quicker ground will help Energumene). The hill is the issue.
 
Grasshopper said:
The question was around tactics, specific to the QMCC.

What tactics do you use to get Shishkin beat?
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Energumene is very straightforward. You go out at a pace, conserve energy through your jumping, force others to jump at a pace they arent comfortable with and hope no one passes you.
I personally dont think he will beat Shiskin, I didn't yesterday, or before the Arkle last year. But changing tactics on Energumene seems self-defeating. Shiskin doesn't need to underperform much for you to win.
 
Unless Energumene was less than 100% yesterday (the fact that someone had £365k on it to win £500k, was it?, and Chapman told us the gambling owner had backed it suggests otherwise) only some kind of mishap to Shishkin during the race reverses the form.

Energumene got to dictate the pace, hugged the rail all the way, never made the semblance of a mistake and got first run from the front.

If ever events conspired to allow a horse to win, Energumene had them all in his favour - and at Ascot of all places, where there is a front-runners' bias.

Shishkin raced wider. Simple maths tell us that racing a yard wide round a circle costs 6 yards per lap - about two lengths - so he gave away at least that amount as well, plus the ground and momentum lost with that mistake at pace and the fact he was three lengths better than Energumene from the last to the line, and Shishkin is effectively at the very least three pounds better than Energumene.

At their respective age and stage, both are entitled to keep improving for the time being. That's where it gets interesting for Round 2, as Hendo called it.

PS - there used to be information on one results site that gave the precise yardage covered by each horse in a race. Does anyone know what it was and if it still exists? I would love to know exactly how much further Shishkin ran yesterday.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I haven't read that, barjon.

Did whoever wrote it offer evidence?

(FWIW, I can fully believe it.)
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Can’t remember if I saw it or heard it yesterday. Brough Scott today in Sunday Times says “…. Energumene Was still ahead but his stride began to falter and for Townend the winning post seemed to be retreating……” and in the Racing Post he said “…..you could see a tiredness gripping Energumene….”

Ps: the sectionals will be interesting.
 
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HawkWing said:
Not necessarily. If they were running that race again in 2 weeks time (same conditions) I would have it as a 50/50. Shiskin would need to pull out all the stops again to beat Energumene, when there is that little between them. I don't buy that he had an easy lead yesterday. He gets an "easy lead" because no horse wanted to go the pace he was going. It wasnt Politologue that First Flow was up against.

The Champion Chase is over a furlong shorter, on different ground (I think that quicker ground will help Energumene). The hill is the issue.
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Also, I didn’t say he got an “easy lead”. I said he didn’t get into a fight for one, and was therefore able to dictate the pace. There is a difference.
 
HawkWing said:
I personally dont think he will beat Shiskin, I didn't yesterday, or before the Arkle last year. But changing tactics on Energumene seems self-defeating. Shiskin doesn't need to underperform much for you to win.
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Agree with all of that. :thumbsup:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Unless Energumene was less than 100% yesterday (the fact that someone had £365k on it to win £500k, was it?, and Chapman told us the gambling owner had backed it suggests otherwise) only some kind of mishap to Shishkin during the race reverses the form.

Energumene got to dictate the pace, hugged the rail all the way, never made the semblance of a mistake and got first run from the front.

Shishkin raced wider. Simple maths tell us that racing a yard wide round a circle costs 6 yards per lap - about two lengths - so he gave away at least that amount as well, plus the ground and momentum lost with that mistake at pace and the fact he was three lengths better than Energumene from the last to the line, and Shishkin is effectively at the very least three pounds better than Energumene.

At their respective age and stage, both are entitled to keep improving for the time being. That's where it gets interesting for Round 2, as Hendo called it.
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The wider tracking is nonsense. It's never factored into horses that swing wide coming up Ascot's home straight over hurdles for instance. There is no guarantee where the best ground is either. And at a furlong shorter distance, Energumene is the better horse using those simple maths.
 
Grasshopper said:
Also, I didn’t say he got an “easy lead”. I said he didn’t get into a fight for one, and was therefore able to dictate the pace. There is a difference.
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A miniscule one not worth mentioning.

The fly in the ointment is CPS. I can see a situation where he leads and Energumene follows at Cheltenham. Mullins camp have always viewed him as the real daddy in the yard. (Might be changing now).
 
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