2 Mile Chasers 21/22

[Grasshopper]

I remember vividly many people telling me Hurricane Fly might not act at Cheltenham before his first Champion Hurdle (perversely, I don’t think he did act particularly well there).

The same concerns surely apply to Energumene, who’s never gone left-handed on an undulating track?

Note: I freely concede Energumene might actually improve for Cheltenham’s track configuration, but it’s still an unknown going into the Festival.

 

[Tanlic]

What we saw was 2 very nice horses run up to their 170 marks and put up a memorable peformace.

It's not rocket science to work out faced with the Cheltenham Hill if they both jump well Shishkin is very likely to win by further.

The bookies seem to be of the oppinion that Shishkin 8/11 will have the upperhand over Energumene 3/1 and I find no reason to disagree with that.

Finding fault on either of them yesterday is for me a complete waste of time. It was a great race from 2 very good horses ridden by 2 very good jockeys

How the handicapper will see things matters not a jot. As good a spectacle they put up neither in my book is the next Sprinter Sacre
However with a riches of horses like Appreicate It, Dysart Dynamo, Constitution Hill and Jonbon etc. coming up through the ranks
we might yet come up with another greater than great chaser and that is what makes it a great sport.

 

[Desert Orchid]

And at a furlong shorter distance, Energumene is the better horse using those simple maths.

There's a big difference in saying 'a furlong out Energumene was in front' and 'if the race was a furlong shorter Energumene would have won'.

I'm genuinely surprised someone of your knowledge would post what you did.

 

[Grasshopper]

A miniscule one not worth mentioning.

The fly in the ointment is CPS. I can see a situation where he leads and Energumene follows at Cheltenham. Mullins camp have always viewed him as the real daddy in the yard. (Might be changing now).

With respect, it’s not. An easy lead infers the others expect to pick him up at some stage, and I doubt anyone thought that would be the case.

Nonetheless, it was worth mentioning if only because I was misquoted. I’m sure you can understand.

 

[Grasshopper]

What we saw was 2 very nice horses run up to their 170 marks and put up a memorable peformace.

It's not rocket science to work out faced with the Cheltenham Hill if they both jump well Shishkin is very likely to win by further.

The bookies seem to be of the oppinion that Shishkin 8/11 will have the upperhand over Energumene 3/1 and I find no reason to disagree with that.

Finding fault on either of them yesterday is for me a complete waste of time. It was a great race from 2 very good horses ridden by 2 very good jockeys

How the handicapper will see things matters not a jot. As good a spectacle they put up neither in my book is the next Sprinter Sacre
However with a riches of horses like Appreicate It, Dysart Dynamo, Constitution Hill and Jonbon etc. coming up through the ranks
we might yet come up with another greater than great chaser and that is what makes it a great sport.

They both left 170 well behind yesterday. That is indisputable, imo.

 

[HawkWing]

There's a big difference in saying 'a furlong out Energumene was in front' and 'if the race was a furlong shorter Energumene would have won'.

I'm genuinely surprised someone of your knowledge would post what you did.

I think any person watching the race would see that Shishkin was going as fast as he could. It was only that he could maintain that speed for a furlong longer than Energumene that won him the race. This is backed up by the opinion of jockey of Shiskin.

And it was being used as an example of how simple maths misleads.

 

[Grasshopper]

I can’t believe I’m asking this, but what to the bri-nylon-wearing, dandruff-spattered, clock-watcher nerds say about the race?

Because it looked to me that the fastest Shishkin went the entire way was in the final furlong.

 

[Desert Orchid]

the bri-nylon-wearing, dandruff-spattered, clock-watcher

I didn't realise we'd met!

 

[barjon]

My own view of all this is that Energumene jumped better throughout the race and had Shishkin out of his comfort zone most of the time. He looked the better horse except near the death where it mattered most. Coming into the last - where he lost out to a better jump - and after it when he picked up Shishkin was clearly motoring and showing terrific determination, but I can’t see that would have been enough if Energumene had been able to keep his full pace going. I haven’t seen the last furlong sectional, but I would guess it will show Energumene slowed.

It’s going to be tricky to avoid that happening again. Someone posted earlier that Townend said he thought he went too fast, but slower would have made it more comfortable for Shishkin, although he would have been unlikely to race on Energumene‘s shoulder. Much depends on how much Energumene can gain by his better jumping, but that relies on Shishkin faltering more than he did this time. For the moment it’s go with the winner, but it should be a thriller again.

 

[Desert Orchid]

And it was being used as an example of how simple maths misleads.

No...

Maths are facts. Two plus two will never make anything other than four. Distance travelled is factual but maybe Shishkin will cover the same distance next time because he might race wider next time too, but the fact is he raced wider and covered more ground.

Interpretations of facts are what mislead.

 

[HawkWing]

No...

Maths are facts. Two plus two will never make anything other than four. Distance travelled is factual but maybe Shishkin will cover the same distance next time because he might race wider next time too, but the fact is he raced wider and covered more ground.

Interpretations of facts are what mislead.

But pretending that this is key to rating horse-races is what's at stake. Tell me the last horse you upgraded for swinging wide up the home straight at Ascot, even yesterday. There is no guarantee that it wasn't the most efficient use of the horse's energy. Its just an argument cherry picked to back up an established opinion. There are plenty more reasonable approaches to take.

 

[Grasshopper]

I didn't realise we'd met!

:lol:

 

[Desert Orchid]

But pretending that this is key to rating horse-races is what's at stake. Tell me the last horse you upgraded for swinging wide up the home straight at Ascot, even yesterday. There is no guarantee that it wasn't the most efficient use of the horse's energy. Its just an argument cherry picked to back up an established opinion. There are plenty more reasonable approaches to take.

No, HW, with respect, you're misinterpreting what I'm arguing.

I don't upgrade per se for such things and I wasn't upgrading Shishkin for yesterday. I was merely suggesting there are grounds for supporting the view that Shishkin's natural superiority over Energumene might be more than yesterday's one length / one pound margin.

When they do meet and I've only one pound between them on my ratings, I will, however, have it in the back of my mind that Shishkin might be more than a pound better.

 

[HawkWing]

No, HW, with respect, you're misinterpreting what I'm arguing.

I don't upgrade per se for such things and I wasn't upgrading Shishkin for yesterday. I was merely suggesting there are grounds for supporting the view that Shishkin's natural superiority over Energumene might be more than yesterday's one length / one pound margin.

When they do meet and I've only one pound between them on my ratings, I will, however, have it in the back of my mind that Shishkin might be more than a pound better.

I do understand that. That's perfectly fair. But I wouldn't be using that he travelled three wide as the reason. Simple maths or not. It's insignificant other than in extreme examples.
Depending on the circumstances of their next race, its unlikely that they will run to the pound of each other.

 

[Tanlic]

They both left 170 well behind yesterday. That is indisputable, imo.

Well behind? What superior to Altior's 175 who proved his metal time and time again?
The altior that won everything going including 2 QMCC?.....it would be criminal to suggest either is as good as him at this stage

But with all the hype and the opportinity to sell racing to us they probably will.

 

[Grasshopper]

I’m not even getting into this with you.

Find me anyone (other than you) that rates this lower than 175, and I’ll show you a dipstick.

I know exactly why you need to peg this at 170, because you can’t have your last ten posts about Altior and CPS being superior etc make you look that daft!

 

[G-G]

I know it's splitting hairs and unimportant. I would see all horses slowing down at the finish with the stamina laden decelerating at a slower rate. To me energumene had plenty until the last 100 yards. I wouldn't think shishkin quickened.

Shishkin did quicken, watch him after the last, he's almost 2 lengths down as he lands. No way he won just because he was getting past a slowing horse.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Shishkin did quicken, watch him after the last, he's almost 2 lengths down as he lands. No way he won just because he was getting past a slowing horse.

The sectionals will come out in due course but I'd be willing to bet money they'll show Shishkin's final furlong was slower than his previous one.

 

[Desert Orchid]

While I was googling...

Sounds like an idea for a film...

... anyway, while I was googling for sectionals for yesterday, I cam across this on the Timeform site:

[FONT=&quot]A Timeform rating of 181p places Shishkin behind only Sprinter Sacre (192p) among Nicky Henderson's great two-mile chasers - Altior had a peak rating of 180. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Timeform’s chase handicapper Phil Turner said: "It was a terrific race, both in terms of excitement and level of form. Last year’s winner First Flow arrived here on the back of a career-best effort, so the fact that the big two could pull so far clear of him in the latter stages says plenty for what they achieved - a view which is fully backed up by the stopwatch.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“It usually takes a top-notch rival to push a horse beyond the 180 ratings barrier and that was certainly the case with Nicky Henderson’s two recent two-mile chasing superstars. Sprinter Sacre, for example, was chased home by Cue Card (twice) and Sizing Europe on the three times he bettered that lofty figure, whilst the stopwatch king Min was runner-up on the sole occasion when Altior ran to that level. It reflects well on Energumene, therefore, that he could push Shishkin much closer than any of those illustrious names did to either Sprinter Sacre or Altior and he enhanced his own reputation today despite meeting defeat.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“That said, Shishkin arguably deserves extra credit given he was always on the back foot after an unlucky peck around halfway so there could be even better to come from him. Indeed, Cheltenham’s Old Course is likely to play to his strengths more than Energumene – particularly the extended stretch between three out and two out – and we’d expect him to confirm the placings in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Let’s just hope they both turn up there in the same sort of form!”[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Timeform's top-rated chasers
181p Shishkin
180 Energumene
179 Chacun Pour Soi
176 Allaho[/FONT]

 

[Tanlic]

I’m not even getting into this with you.

Find me anyone (other than you) that rates this lower than 175, and I’ll show you a dipstick.

I know exactly why you need to peg this at 170, because you can’t have your last ten posts about Altior and CPS being superior etc make you look that daft!

Oh!:blink: I seem to recall I said 2 170 rated horses took eacho other on with nothing about how they would be rated after the race and you were in there like a shot
telling me how they have left that 170 rating miles behind..........They are infants at the game in comparsion to Altior and Sprinter Sacre and got a long long way to go to emulate either.

Your idiot friend posted that Shishkin could be a 185OR horse by the time he runs in the QMCC....go take him to task and leave me out of your petty sqabbles that I never even commented on in the first place

 

[chroniclandlord]

Can’t have this myself, CL.

This was the best running of the race as a Conditions event by miles. One swallow doesn’t make summer, and it should revert to a handicap - no question. It would only have been enhanced if Shishkin was giving Energumene 1lbs, and much more weight to the other two.

Today’s was a tremendous, tremendous race, but it doesn’t offset the litany of drab and/or one-sided events that preceeded it for years…..not in my book, at any rate.

I know that I'm in the minority with the view that this race is much the better for being a grade 1 and that many of those with the opposing view both here and in racing in general are those whose opinions I have the greatest respect for.

However, I love watching a race and seeing the best horse win, and I love watching the best horses win the best races. Since this race became a graded race in 2008 the winners read like a who's who of two mile chasers.

Un des Sceaux x3
Master Minded x2
Twist Magic
Sprinter Sacre
Sire de Grugy
Altior
Shiskin

First Flow was rated 156 prior to winning it last year and Tamaranbleu 157 are the only winners to have a prior OR of less than 165.

In contrast, as a handicap we had winners such as Turgeonev 131 and Big Matt 139. In 2000 Nordance Prince won by a neck from Flagship Uberalles when getting 24lbs. The best horse sure didn't win that one.

 

[Grasshopper]

Tanlic, you can’t argue ratings one minute, then dismiss them when they no longer prop-up your argument.

The outlier here is you, if you think they’ve only run to 170 despite beating a 162-rated horse 18L. Everyone else you care to ask will rate these performances MINIMUM 175, and that would be at the conservative end. Only you can’t see it. Eejit.

 

[Grasshopper]

I know that I'm in the minority with the view that this race is much the better for being a grade 1 and that many of those with the opposing view both here and in racing in general are those whose opinions I have the greatest respect for.

However, I love watching a race and seeing the best horse win, and I love watching the best horses win the best races. Since this race became a graded race in 2008 the winners read like a who's who of two mile chasers.

Un des Sceaux x3
Master Minded x2
Twist Magic
Sprinter Sacre
Sire de Grugy
Altior
Shiskin

First Flow was rated 156 prior to winning it last year and Tamaranbleu 157 are the only winners to have a prior OR of less than 165.

In contrast, as a handicap we had winners such as Turgeonev 131 and Big Matt 139. In 2000 Nordance Prince won by a neck from Flagship Uberalles when getting 24lbs. The best horse sure didn't win that one.

I’d much rather watch heroic performances (win or lose), than class horses pottering round against vastly inferior opponents who have no chance at the weights.

Flagship Uberalles may not have won, but he was still the best horse in the race, and enhanced his reputation in defeat.

 

[Tanlic]

I never put a figure on it did I? Timeform raised Shishkin from 175P to 181P

That usually reflects in the OR will go up about 4lbs......so they could end up on 175 or close I guess.

Now they got to maintain it and my guess is both will not...we will see soon enough

Don't forget it is Timeform's objective to sell racing to the public and make it as exciting as possible

The handicapper is to an extent tarred with the same brush.

Will shishkin go down in history as an all time great? Not a cat in hells chance IMVHO

 

[Grasshopper]

Oh!:blink: I seem to recall I said 2 170 rated horses took eacho other on with nothing about how they would be rated after the race and you were in there like a shot
telling me how they have left that 170 rating miles behind..........They are infants at the game in comparsion to Altior and Sprinter Sacre and got a long long way to go to emulate either.

Your idiot friend posted that Shishkin could be a 185OR horse by the time he runs in the QMCC....go take him to task and leave me out of your petty sqabbles that I never even commented on in the first place

This is what you said:

"What we saw was 2 very nice horses run up to their 170 marks and put up a memorable peformace"

Ive added the emphasis, as this is the bit where you appear to put the ceiling on what they've achieved. Retract or correct this if you wish.

I've been in there like a shot on most posts in this thread since the middle of the week, because the clash was fascinating beforehand, and just as fascinating afterwards. I can't help if it you steadfastly refuse to accept the performances of both horses, because it doesn't fit your no doubt dearly-held view of Chacun Pour Soi and Altior.

Sentiment has no place when assessing the merits of racehorses. If that's all you have (which seems to be the case with you, because you ignore ratings which don't suit your argument), then you are always going to encounter an opposing view.

Timeform (the only ratings outfit to go public so far) rate both Shishkin's and Energumene's performances higher than anything CPS has achieved, and right in the same ball-park as the best Altior achieved in his illustrious career. It is practically a given that most of the other ratings outfits will frame the race in much the same way.

Have either of them won as many Grade 1s or Champion Chases as Altior? No, but that's partly because Altior had an 18-race chase career, whereas Shishkin and Energumene have had 7 and 6 chase outings respectively. If this makes them "infants" as you have called them, then they are clearly very precocious infants, and should command even more respect as a result. That they have achieved such a high-level of performance so early in their careers, is something to be celebrated and respected - not dismissed as an irrelevance.

The best of Sprinter Sacre's performances apart, yesterday's race rates amongst the best outings by any 2-miler (or pair of 2-milers) in a long time. Get on board with it.