2 Mile Chasers 21/22

[FiftyP]

If Townend asks the horse to go faster I don't think he stays to the line but hits a brick wall and loses by lengths. I was amazed Energumene kept his pace with the way he was looking one, one and a half furlongs out, which shows how good he is. How Shishkin won was he had just a fractional amount of better finishing speed. My question (a genuine question) is can he get into that gear going up hill? People are saying Energumene needs heavier ground than what was there today but with a similar level of pushing from Energumene can Shishkin find the pace going up a slope on the same ground as today?

 

[HawkWing]

I think the only way they beat Shishkin is to put it to him even harder in the hope that he makes a serious blunder. He has more speed than Energumene in a finish and will undoubtedly be better suited by the quicker ground at Cheltenham. But if they really piled it on, then he may make a mistake that he cannot recover from.

It will be a mouth watering re-match though and I am wondering now if I should go on Wednesday instead!

Yeah. Not sure what the distinction is between finishing speed and stamina. But I agree. The other thing I would think is that he is a quicker jumper who gets away from his fences more reliably. Id fancy him around punchestown (or aintree 2m) but when stamina comes into it, shishkin has him.

 

[jinnyj]

Stamina they just keep going. Finishing speed they change gear and go faster. Shishkin has the latter.

 

[HawkWing]

Isn't the best thing about today's race that it shows that the clashes don't have to be at Cheltenham to be important. I don't care if one, or both, underperform at the festival. We got the race we wanted. It will be remembered in the same breath as Moscow's tingle creek in a way that few festival clashes are.

 

[HawkWing]

Stamina they just keep going. Finishing speed they change gear and go faster. Shishkin has the latter.

I know it's splitting hairs and unimportant. I would see all horses slowing down at the finish with the stamina laden decelerating at a slower rate. To me energumene had plenty until the last 100 yards. I wouldn't think shishkin quickened.

 

[Grasshopper]

He's hardly going to say he didn't, is he?
PT was cruising from the bottom of the hill (the commentator said he was sat motionless, turning in). Had he asked any sort of question between those 2 points Shishkin would've had much more to do.

To be fair, the commentator was Cattermole, so…..well, you know. :lol:

 

[Grasshopper]

If Townend asks the horse to go faster I don't think he stays to the line but hits a brick wall and loses by lengths. I was amazed Energumene kept his pace with the way he was looking one, one and a half furlongs out, which shows how good he is. How Shishkin won was he had just a fractional amount of better finishing speed. My question (a genuine question) is can he get into that gear going up hill? People are saying Energumene needs heavier ground than what was there today but with a similar level of pushing from Energumene can Shishkin find the pace going up a slope on the same ground as today?

The answer to that question is almost-certainly ‘Yes’, FiftyP.

Even in his days novice hurdling, Shishkin showed an almost uncanny ability to quicken at the end of a 2m race - something he has carried into his steeple-chasing career. Couple that with what is an increasingly impressive will-to-win, and I don’t really think he has any tactical vulnerabilities, tbh.

 

[Grasshopper]

Isn't the best thing about today's race that it shows that the clashes don't have to be at Cheltenham to be important. I don't care if one, or both, underperform at the festival. We got the race we wanted. It will be remembered in the same breath as Moscow's tingle creek in a way that few festival clashes are.

Not the best thing, but definitely a positive.

 

[Frankel]

PT was cruising from the bottom of the hill (the commentator said he was sat motionless, turning in). Had he asked any sort of question between those 2 points Shishkin would've had much more to do.

Or would he have won further?

 

[Double J]

Thought both jockeys gave their respective mounts a good ride. No faults for me. If Energumene goes harder he probably tires quicker. Best horse won.

 

[granger]

I better start spelling it right for Tanlic

Energumene has room to jump a bit better, he will need to be perfect.

Shish has some engine for a 2 miler. Phenomenal

Certain Shishk will go 2 and a half come Aintree.

 

[Gaz's Way De Solzen]

I think Cheltenham is a better track for Shishkin in comparison to Ascot, just think he goes better left-handed.

Energumene was great today, I really didn't think he was going to be pegged back when they were coming around the last bend and in to the straight.

Fair play to Shishkin, he is all class.

 

[Grasshopper]

Its very generous of them. I would have said that mid 180 was possible before today but think we got to see how good he was today. Rated a length better than energumene is about right

Like others before me, I think Shishkin is probably better going left-handed, and I can see him improve on today’s performance going that way round, tbh. Whether that justifies a ‘p’ or not, I’m not sure.

 

[JamesRB]

was out all day but managed to catch the race live on my phone thankfully. often these hyped up head 2 heads don't live up to it but this one did. shishkin really does seem like another altior. running style is almost identical and ability seems about the same.

 

[reet hard]

I better start spelling it right for Tanlic

Energumene has room to jump a bit better, he will need to be perfect.

Shish has some engine for a 2 miler. Phenomenal

Certain Shishk will go 2 and a half come Aintree.

Eng has a RyanAir entry - Shishkin doesn't.
Edited to add:

Cork (16.5Sft, RPR 174)
You would have to be delighted with that. Sean said they went very quick early, they ended up racing all the way down the back but Energumene's class told and he won very easily. But for that he would have been very impressive. But Notebook took him on and he finished last having had a run. Sean was very impressed and he will improve loads. At the moment there is no need to go further with him but we know he does stay - David Casey, assistant trainer.

Huntingdon (19.5GS, RPR 154)
That was perfect. That's what you're trying to do and that's what those races are about. You're always nervous and they were very respectable opposition but Shishkin has got a lot of gears. He will run in the Supreme next. I don't think we were ever seriously going down the Ballymore road. He's got lots of speed and is a two-miler - Nicky Henderson, trainer.

 

[Beef or Salmon]

The suggestion than Townend did anything wrong is ******* hilarious and up there with the morons who think Carbery gave Harchibald a bad ride!

 

[Tanlic]

I better start spelling it right for Tanlic

Energumene has room to jump a bit better, he will need to be perfect.

Shish has some engine for a 2 miler. Phenomenal

Certain Shishk will go 2 and a half come Aintree.

It really is one strange name..everytime I type it I get my knickers in a twist. ERG is fine by me, I copy and paste it whenever possible....I looked it up and apparently it's French and means Rowdy

 

[Tanlic]

The suggestion than Townend did anything wrong is ******* hilarious and up there with the morons who think Carbery gave Harchibald a bad ride!

The plan was for Paul Townsend to go just fast enough to take Shishkin a stride out of his comfort zone and perhaps force him to make a few jumping errors and at the same time not blow a gasket by going too fast.

Paul Townsend did it to perfection and even Ruby couldn't have done better.

Nico wasn't for giving him an inch as giving him an easy lead would have surely spelled disaster. As it turned out just when Nico needed it the turbo Shishkin is becoming famous for kicked in.

Both jockey's treated us to Master Class rides.

 

[reet hard]

Much of the early talk on this thread was that Eng is a stayer (which the David Casey quote confirms) yet, because he was caught on the run-in he didn't.
Why then, was he allowed to coast all the way up the hill, while Shishkin was far from comfortable, and why was Eng not asked to make the job any harder? The obvious answer is that DC thought he had his opponent cooked, (seemingly, through over-confidence in Eng's superiority) and misjudged his effort as a conseqence. Even the best of jockeys don't always get it right, and he was clearly in error in this instance, and it's as rare as hen's teeth for any trainer to call it such.
No financial involvement, no partisanship, just calling what was plain to see, and I'd expect both horses to vindicate my reading of the race, in the not too distant future.

 

[Tanlic]

I used to make the same mistake you are making Reet until one day I was in the company of 3 jockeys who all disagreed with my analysis of a race they had ridden in.

I said if horse X had gone sooner he would have beaten horse Y and won and they were very quick to explain if he had gone sooner he would have weakened sooner and might even have lost 2nd place.

Obviously that is not the case with ENG as he finsihed well clear of the 3rd but even if he had kicked 3 out their analysis about the places would have come into play

It makes sense if you think about it. If you have 4 gigs of energy left no matter how you use them you still only have 4 gigs of energy left

I just rewatched the race and PT has asked him just after they turn for home and he did find a bit and even looked like he had it in the bag for a short while

Howver Nico to be fair hadn't quite got after Shishkin and was just pushing away gradually winding him up.
It wasn't until after the second last he really got after him and his timing was impeccable.

To be honest had it been 1/2 furlong further shihkin would have beaten him hands down and even WPM has openly said they have an huge ask to reverse the form at Cheltenham

If Shishkin is within a length of ERG in the QMCC at the last I think he'll beat him stayer or not by many lengths.

Wouldn't surprise me if ERG went for the Dublin Chase instead of Chacun Pour Soi if WPM thinks he is coming back to his best and he has more chance of toppling Shishkin in the QMCC

Stranger things have happened in the past with WPM is around.....I noticed PT just smirked and smiled they asked him about the future and said that depends on Willie.

I would advice anyone to be very careful backing either WPM horse for either race at this time..

 

[Grasshopper]

Much of the early talk on this thread was that Eng is a stayer (which the David Casey quote confirms) yet, because he was caught on the run-in he didn't.
Why then, was he allowed to coast all the way up the hill, while Shishkin was far from comfortable, and why was Eng not asked to make the job any harder? The obvious answer is that DC thought he had his opponent cooked, (seemingly, through over-confidence in Eng's superiority) and misjudged his effort as a conseqence. Even the best of jockeys don't always get it right, and he was clearly in error in this instance, and it's as rare as hen's teeth for any trainer to call it such.
No financial involvement, no partisanship, just calling what was plain to see, and I'd expect both horses to vindicate my reading of the race, in the not too distant future.

Fair enough, reet, but I think this analysis fails to account for the fact that Shishkin is probably just as strong a stayer as Energumene. The suggestion that Shishkin’s stamina might start to give-out through a stronger gallop is misplaced, imo. He won a 3m point, and in his only rules run at 2m4f, he was still full of running at the line.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Like others before me, I think Shishkin is probably better going left-handed, and I can see him improve on today’s performance going that way round, tbh. Whether that justifies a ‘p’ or not, I’m not sure.

I think with commercial ratings people, the 'p' is applied if performance ratings are higher then the immediate two previous ratings and are also career bests.

I think the P is more subjective, based on the race reader's opinion.

Shishkin's last three RPRs, for instance, now read 163, 175, 181. However, if you strip out that 163 (the lap of honour at Aintree), his last five are 170, 172, 175, 175 (seasonal debut) and 181.

Come the Champion Chase, he might yet have a 185 in him. Then you're heading into Sprinter Sacre territory...

 

[Grasshopper]

Where Timeform is concerned, DO, I think the small ‘p’ simply means ‘remains capable of better’…..or words to that effect anyway. I don’t think it’s directly-related to previous runs/ratings - though it is of course indirectly-related……though it’s merely a techical detail, and we both know what it means in practice.

It’s exciting to think how good this horse could be, and how high he could go. Let’s hope he is as sound as he is talented.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Yes, obviously Timeform (eg) will want an explanation for their symbols for new readers. I'll be surprised if it isn't ratings-related.

I'm often surprised how fast RPRs are to drop the 'p'. It seems one performance at the same figure or lower following an indication of progression (they use the wee black triangle pointing upwards) is enough to remove it and it requires at least another two increases on the previous best to reinstate it.

 

[HawkWing]

Nico de Boinville 'turning in, I thought I was cooked'.
The idea that they weren't going hard enough is nonsense.