2 Year olds 2009
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Irish Stamp
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The owner/trainer combo had Red Clubs a few years ago who was a precocious 2yo and we all know what he did and they've had a couple of highly regarded types since.
EC1
On a break
compared to the handicap run later over same distance and adding WFA time allowance would give a speed figure of approx 74 for Red Jazz
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Red Jazz was certainly well prepared and performed very professionally but with his opponents running very green behind perhaps some caution should be advised.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Red Jazz held an entry in the Brocklesby IIRC, was the only bet in the race for me at the 5 day stage had he run.
EC1
On a break
A pretty decent performance on the clock today at Nottingham by Star Rover.
If you compare his time to the handicap over the same C/D his time figure is in the region of 85.
The handicap is a decent marker if you look at the conditions sprint time as well.
The first 3 in the Novice Stakes are all worth keeping in mind over the coming weeks as this was a hot race for this time of year purely looking at the racetime. They finished 4 lengths clear of the 4th horse.
1. STAR ROVER
2.1.5, RED AVALANCHE
3. 1.25, GILLBURG
The 2nd and 3rd will take some beating in ordinary maidens
edited...the rating should have been 85 not 95..the handicap was a 3yo race..hence original mistake
to put this in context..Bonnie Charlie who won the Windsor race last year that Red Jazz won on Monday..but in a faster comparative time than RJ did ...recorded a sf of 82...that horse nearly won a G3 after the maiden.
If you compare his time to the handicap over the same C/D his time figure is in the region of 85.
The handicap is a decent marker if you look at the conditions sprint time as well.
The first 3 in the Novice Stakes are all worth keeping in mind over the coming weeks as this was a hot race for this time of year purely looking at the racetime. They finished 4 lengths clear of the 4th horse.
1. STAR ROVER
2.1.5, RED AVALANCHE
3. 1.25, GILLBURG
The 2nd and 3rd will take some beating in ordinary maidens
edited...the rating should have been 85 not 95..the handicap was a 3yo race..hence original mistake
to put this in context..Bonnie Charlie who won the Windsor race last year that Red Jazz won on Monday..but in a faster comparative time than RJ did ...recorded a sf of 82...that horse nearly won a G3 after the maiden.
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Gamla Stan
At the Start
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- Aug 19, 2005
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- 4,337
Agree wholeheartedly, Red Jazz flew like a rocket in the last 2 furlongs, very impressive. In that race, I thought Greenore Gordon ran well for a while and his inexperience cost him. He might be worth a look at a big price on a less complicated track next time out or later in the year in nuseries.
Star Rover has also been very impressive, as EC1 mentions, his times have been excellent for a two year old.
Star Rover has also been very impressive, as EC1 mentions, his times have been excellent for a two year old.
EC1
On a break
Although there was no 5f handicap today at Folkestone, using the 6f handicap won by Rash Judgement which looks a good marker - MONSIEUR CHEVALIER in the first race looks to have produced one of the best 2yo time performances of the season with a 90.
The 2nd DIAMOND LAURA should take some beating next time out.
The finishing distances were amazing - the ground timed at Good...were
5
2.25
6
2
Some pretty nippy 2yo's out up to press
The 2nd DIAMOND LAURA should take some beating next time out.
The finishing distances were amazing - the ground timed at Good...were
5
2.25
6
2
Some pretty nippy 2yo's out up to press
EC1
On a break
Hearts of Fire will need to be some tool to give Monsieur Chevalier 6lb and a beating tomorrow in the 2.25 race.
Can see MC being odds on here, bit disappointing really as on paper it were only a Folkestone maiden he won.
not backing odds on .but MC should take really this comfy
Can see MC being odds on here, bit disappointing really as on paper it were only a Folkestone maiden he won.
not backing odds on .but MC should take really this comfy
EC1
On a break
I only used a straight course time Warbler
admittedly not the same distance with this one....which I prefer.. to compare the mdn time with though..which negates the need for any wind or going correction.
same distance comparisons are my preferred method these days..less worry about distance changes, rail changes, going.....for accuracy re speed figures its a no brainer imo
admittedly not the same distance with this one....which I prefer.. to compare the mdn time with though..which negates the need for any wind or going correction.
same distance comparisons are my preferred method these days..less worry about distance changes, rail changes, going.....for accuracy re speed figures its a no brainer imo
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Well I wouldn't worry too much about a rail realignment on a straight course, but you're putting one hell of a lot of an emphasis on just the single benchmark race. Make the slightest error in miscalling it's value and your whole analysis is up the spout. Analogy with eggs in basket. To no small extent you're working off hunches and visual impressions which are notoriously misleading, although if you're using median times especially in small fields or on gaff tracks you're trespassing on even more dodgy ground. I'd certainly be looking to invoke something by way of a check and balance into the equation to challenge your hypothesis and see if you confirm it, or deny it etc
If you're then using subsequent races to project performances off by way of an anticipated level you could quickly spin out of control and have a whole list of wildly inaccurate ratings all of which will compound each other. Not a method I'd like to stake much on to be honest. Too risky. I'd like to have a third and fourth opinion by way of something that's likely to point to how reliable a performance is in context. In any event there's no reason why you shouldn't be able to combine both approaches, and use one to back up or test the hypothesis of the other
If you're then using subsequent races to project performances off by way of an anticipated level you could quickly spin out of control and have a whole list of wildly inaccurate ratings all of which will compound each other. Not a method I'd like to stake much on to be honest. Too risky. I'd like to have a third and fourth opinion by way of something that's likely to point to how reliable a performance is in context. In any event there's no reason why you shouldn't be able to combine both approaches, and use one to back up or test the hypothesis of the other
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Gamla Stan
At the Start
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- Aug 19, 2005
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- 4,337
Its Alright, trained by Alan Bailey who just won at Newmarket was pretty impressive. Seemed to get a little unbalance in the dip and absolutely motored home once they came out of it.
EC1
On a break
previously:
Hearts Of Fire: sf: 88
today
It's Alright: sf: 86
Here Now And Why: speed figure 60
Shark Man: speed figure 56
Monsieur Chevalier improved yesterday from the initial 90 to 95 which is still the highest figure this year on my calcs...unless I have missed one
edited: forgot to add wfa
Hearts Of Fire: sf: 88
today
It's Alright: sf: 86
Here Now And Why: speed figure 60
Shark Man: speed figure 56
Monsieur Chevalier improved yesterday from the initial 90 to 95 which is still the highest figure this year on my calcs...unless I have missed one
edited: forgot to add wfa
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EC1
On a break
Hi Larry
Chicita Banana sf 63
I won't be playing in that race tomorrow, SR has a double penalty, Lees Anthem has potential, Gentle Beat and Marchin Star also could be threats
don't like the make up of the race
Chicita Banana sf 63
I won't be playing in that race tomorrow, SR has a double penalty, Lees Anthem has potential, Gentle Beat and Marchin Star also could be threats
don't like the make up of the race
EC1
On a break
didn't know Lees Anthem hadn't run until I got in Larry, SR has done well to give the weight really even though the figures said it was possible you never know what the burden will do to a young un.
Star Rover ran a 75 today on the clock, looks like a pretty uncompetetive race in the end.
At Newbury Walkingonthemoon also ran a 75 when winning the Maiden. Planet Red ran well and should win next time, came from off the pace in a race where the pace allowed those on it an easier time than those closing into it.
Star Rover ran a 75 today on the clock, looks like a pretty uncompetetive race in the end.
At Newbury Walkingonthemoon also ran a 75 when winning the Maiden. Planet Red ran well and should win next time, came from off the pace in a race where the pace allowed those on it an easier time than those closing into it.
EC1
On a break
horses noted up to press have done ok, RED AVALANCHE just dotted up at Nottingham...DIAMOND LAURA lost by very short head yesterday in a large field Windsor mdn..Gilliburg has run once..beat..still worth keeping an eye on though.