2000 Guineas

sunybay said:
Arazan Guineas and St James Palace

Sea The Stars Irish Guineas , Beresford y Irish Derby

Mourayan campaign in gr2
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I can't see (excuse the pun) Sea the stars dodging/avoiding the best of them, I think they'll want to take them on, that means going to the U.K

I think Mourayan is a grp 1 horse too.

I have no strong opinion on Arazan.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Ah fair enough if he's not entered, but what Jim Bolger has indicated means absolutely shit all!
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It's true that he's not entered, but rather ominously Bolger has stated (before the weekend in fact) that he "could go for any Guineas". While I wouldn't expect him to be supplemented, I guess anything's possibile with this handler.
 
Hamm said:
I am quite strong on both Arazan and Sea the Stars, both each way. Oxx knows his swans from his geese, and I think if Sea the Stars has been spotted by a few on here lately, then Arazan is becoming the forgotten horse of the race. He was very impressive winning the Futurity, and the National Stakes was run in very difficult conditions, which will bear little resemblance to the Guineas.

I wonder who Kinane will choose?
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If Arazan lines up I would have thought Kinane will ride him. Kinane always seems to partner Arazan in work whether Sea The Stars works with him or not and seems set up for the colt.

Arazan may well want it on the easy side of good rather than faster, but has always been in my top three for the race if he takes part.
 
I can`t see any piece of form that gives Arazan much of a chance in a race likely to be run on a fast(ish) surface. He`s 12.5 on Betfair and is no better value than Evasive. Who is priced up purely on trainer rep.

Both AOB colts have better profiles than King of Kings or Footstepsinthesand did and in a mundane year i`d be a tad surprised if one of them doesn`t prevail. The favourite is a ridiculous price.
 
SteveM said:
It's true that he's not entered, but rather ominously Bolger has stated (before the weekend in fact) that he "could go for any Guineas". While I wouldn't expect him to be supplemented, I guess anything's possibile with this handler.
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Bolger sounded a bit reflective on the failure to enter the horse and lamented that he thought he had the English 2000 covered - could it be he was having a little reappraisal in his mind? In which case you'd have to think Intense Focus hasn't performed to the level he thought they were at?. Mind you, those comments were attributed to him after the Fred Darling when he'd have been unlikely to have been in the best of cheer.

I'm increasingly finding myself making a case for Finjaan in what looks like an open year. I thought the Ballydoyle contingent were a class below their recent predecessors as 2yo's and think that were it not for their collective under-performance the world record for Gp1 wins that Aiden was odds on for at the end of July, would have fallen. I'm also inclined to think the winner hasn't run this season too. If this decent weather holds then I can see Finjaan figuring yet.
 
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Latest forfeits are out today I think. Interesting the MCM went slightly ahead of RVW in the betting on Betfair yesterday before it was suspended due to the forfeit stage.
 
What kind of lemmings are backing Rip Van Winkle at 4/1?

Fair enough if you got a price which factors in the enormous improvement he would need to make, but he has shown nothing so far which indicates he should be anything but 33/1.

I can't work out why Sea the stars is 16/1, and NRNB.
 
I have taken some big prices on Ashram for small amounts in the hope he is re-routed to the english guineas rather than the french version after Shaweel's disappointing show in the Greenham.

Anyone know Godolphin plans?
 
16/1 about Sea The Stars looks about right to me; will have to step up significantly on anything he achieved last year.

Of course, both his pedigree and conformation suggest progress is likely, though I'm not sure he'll be seen to best effect over a mile.
 
Compared with Sea the stars at 16/1, can you tell me how Rip van Winkle is 4/1 :lol: and Evasive is 7/1. Rip Van Winkle has shown nothing like Sea the Stars, and Evasive has won a back end Group 3. He may not win (i personally prefer Arazan, but they're my two for it) but the market is completely wrong.
 
Hamm said:
Compared with Sea the stars at 16/1, can you tell me how Rip van Winkle is 4/1 and Evasive is 7/1. Rip Van Winkle has shown nothing like Sea the Stars, and Evasive has won a back end Group 3. He may not win (i personally prefer Arazan, but they're my two for it) but the market is completely wrong.
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To be honest I'm not in a rush to back either of Sea The Stars or Rip Van Winkle at current prices.

I was taken by Sea The Stars in the Beresford, but he beat a field of middle distance prospects. As I said before, just not sure the Guineas will see him to best effect.

As for Arazan, he was very impressive in the Futurity but the form itself doesn't amount to anything special. Was any 'excuse' forthcoming after his National Stakes run? Not that he needed one of course, but I fail to see any reason, unless I've missed something, why he will reverse form with Mastercraftsman, especially on better ground.
 
Galileo said:
Reading the RP it sounds as though Naaqoos would well line up for the Guineas.
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:thumbsup: Shame some of us are on at 7s (What was I thinking?) and 20s when he was 150s on Betfair the other day and 25s to place.

I still think he has a massive chance if he has improved for his last outing. It's such a weak year I still think he should be in the frame.
 
As for Arazan, he was very impressive in the Futurity but the form itself doesn't amount to anything special
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To be fair, we don't know that yet - the second and fourth have only run once each in the States since and the third hasn't run at all.
 
Point taken, Gareth, though Ryehill Dreamer looked fairly well exposed prior to the Futurity, and on that evidence I would have been very surprised were he to have been anything more than a Listed/Group 3 horse.
 
Hamm said:
What kind of lemmings are backing Rip Van Winkle at 4/1?

Fair enough if you got a price which factors in the enormous improvement he would need to make, but he has shown nothing so far which indicates he should be anything but 33/1.

I can't work out why Sea the stars is 16/1, and NRNB.
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RVW is shortening up all morning again with the other bookmakers. Remarkable that he is vying for favouritism after the situation a month or so ago. Interesting that Corals go so short, type of horse they usually take on. Your thoughts tdk?
 
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trackside528 said:
Point taken, Gareth, though Ryehill Dreamer looked fairly well exposed prior to the Futurity, and on that evidence I would have been very surprised were he to have been anything more than a Listed/Group 3 horse.
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Even beating Group 3 horses as he did on only his second start is surely form worth consideration, especially when you facto in his trainer improves his gradually, and his half brother got better with age?

I think the excuse in the national was the ground was barely raceable.
 
Galileo said:
RVW is shortening up all morning again with the other bookmakers. Remarkable that he is vying for favouritism after the situation a month or so ago. Interesting that Corals go so short, type of horse they usually take on. Your thoughts tdk?
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Do we take it that you're not one of these who sign up the theory that Ladbrokes know the score at Ballydoyle then? Last year they were top price on Jupiter Pluvius and shortest on Henrythenavigator. This year they're stand out top price on Mastercraftsman and joined only by Paddy Power in top pricing Rip Van Winkle
 
Warbler said:
Do we take it that you're not one of these who sign up the theory that Ladbrokes know the score at Ballydoyle then? Last year they were top price on Jupiter Pluvius and shortest on Henrythenavigator. This year they're stand out top price on Mastercraftsman and joined only by Paddy Power in top pricing Rip Van Winkle
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Says to me they know Ballydoyle haven't got the ammo for this they've had in recent years.
 
That was my reading of their 2yo careers. They were consistantly about 10L's behind their recent alumni, and were it not for hsi 2yo's he'd have broken the world record last season.

Interestingly, (although there are just a couple shorter which wasn't the case with Henry, as Laddies stood alone) but the one horse that Ladbrokes aren't necessarily enticing punters to back appears to be Westphalia
 
Warbler said:
Do we take it that you're not one of these who sign up the theory that Ladbrokes know the score at Ballydoyle then? Last year they were top price on Jupiter Pluvius and shortest on Henrythenavigator. This year they're stand out top price on Mastercraftsman and joined only by Paddy Power in top pricing Rip Van Winkle
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They were marginally shorter on Henrythenavigtor....its not as if they were going to price him up at a price which suggested they new he was a multiple Group 1 winner in the making.

They have plenty of ammo...I am not sure quite how the market is telling us they are not fancied....

Wesphalia goes for the French Guineas....never in the 2000 Guineas Newmarket reckoning....clearly RVW and MCM are considered his superior.
 
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Ladbrokes really don't know all the ins and outs at Coolmore despite the perpetuating of the common myth; there are other firms with far closer links.
 
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