2000 Guineas

Naaqoos is now definitely out...

NAAQOOS, as short as 7-1 in places for the Stanjames.com 2,000 Guineas, will not run in the Newmarket Classic according to trainer Freddie Head.

The son of Oasis Dream emerged as a serious contender for the race when landing the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp in October, but was beaten on his reappearance at Maisons-Laffite earlier this month. Connections had been toying with a trip to Britain all week and Head said on Friday morning: “We have finally decided to stay in France and run Naaqoos in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains [French 2,000 Guineas] at Longchamp.
“He knows the track well and we just didn’t want to take the risk of going to England at this stage of his career. The colt has been entered in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot and he worked very nicely this morning.”
 
Maybe people are realising that his run in the Phoenix is the best form available and that if he`d had those conditions again last year (or he`d not run on the heavy ground in the National) further improvement would probably have been achieved. That and an injury scare to Evasive.

The guessers are the people punting Delegator.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Is it really that much of a "risk"?
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My thoughts exactly. They are clearly keeping him wrapped up for the French Derby in my opinion. Twats.

The race is an absolute lottery, I'll probably side with Cityscape, Finjaan and Intense Focus as value bets against the Ballydoyle pair and the Meehan hype horse but may just swerve the whole thing.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Ladbrokes really don't know all the ins and outs at Coolmore despite the perpetuating of the common myth; there are other firms with far closer links.
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As long as Mike Dillon is seen talking to someone connected to the Coolmore lot and McCririck is shouting "Ladbrokes knew" then there'll be those who will fall for it hook line and sinker.
 
Irish Stamp said:
As long as Mike Dillon is seen talking to someone connected to the Coolmore lot and McCririck is shouting "Ladbrokes knew" then there'll be those who will fall for it hook line and sinker.
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Looking at oddschecker they are top or joint top price on the front three in the market. It seems obvious they are looking to take a stance rather than trading on any information from Coolmore.
 
Looking at oddschecker they are top or joint top price on the front three in the market.
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Makes sense. It feels a lot more like a Cockney Rebel year than a George Washington one.
 
Exactly. If I were a layer I'd want the Coolmore horses in the book. Delgator is also a horse a layer would want to take on. Spencer will give you every chance.
 
I'm not saying that, I just couldn't see anything that I'd want onside against them really. Mastercraftsman arguably has the best form going into the race and Rip Van Winkle looked like potentially the best horse in the Dewhurst. O'Brien shows year on year he is different class at getting his horses right for the big days. I'd rather back those 3 at 4/5 than have the rest at 5/4.
 
O.K on a slightly different note would you rather lay both O'Briens now at 5/1 or wait for Murtagh to choose and lay his mount at 7/2.
 
davidjohnson said:
I'm not saying that, I just couldn't see anything that I'd want onside against them really. Mastercraftsman arguably has the best form going into the race and Rip Van Winkle looked like potentially the best horse in the Dewhurst. O'Brien shows year on year he is different class at getting his horses right for the big days. I'd rather back those 3 at 4/5 than have the rest at 5/4.
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Agreed.

Evasive is the one I can't seem to get any sort of grasp on. Any strong views?
 
Unless connections are living in dreamland or trying to put punters away big time, Delegators dewhurst run is not too relevant at this stage. Im happy with the 9/2 i grabbed..

Aside from negative stable form, any reason why Finjaan is so long in price? Is he a likely runner or what?
 
I haven't been following this thread so apologies of this is going off at a tangent...

I'm only just catching up with the autumn 2yo form. There's a comment in the book after the Dewhurst saying the 2yos were as weak a bunch as any in the last decade.

How many agree with that?

I don't. There may have been a succession of bunch finishes, hence the logical conclusion, but I can't help thinking we had a lot of quality juveniles.

The conditions on Champions Day were conducive to breaking records but the relative times on the day appear to stand up to inspection. Intense Focus, carrying more weight than New Approach who won by six lengths, recorded a time only 16lbs below it. 2yos should be a fair bit more than that behind their seniors. Two times in isolation isn't a good basis on which to mae strong conclusions but the relative times of Stimulation's race, of the Rockfell and even of the Ces appear to suggest all were true-run races. The Rockfell winner has come out and impressed with a strong finish at Newbury and the fifth in the Dewhurst has won an admittedly weak-looking Craven.

And didn't Fantasia just look scintillating at Newmarket?

At this stage, I'm of a mind that we could be on the verge of a season to remember.
 
Going update from this morning

Good to Firm Sunday; Dry & bright Monday; Dry am Rain pm 3-4mm Tuesday; Rain 4mm Wednesday; Rain am 3mm Clearing pm Thursday-Sunday: Dry, bright and fairly warm​
 
Ashram seriously impressed in his latest gallop, the same can't be said of Shaweel.

Not at all impressed with Evasive and he needs cut.

Beat Seven is working tremendously and could be an outside shot in the 1000, she will be ridden by Steve Drowne, and he deserves any success he gets.
 
2yos should be a fair bit more than that behind their seniors.

Purely on the clock..I would not agree with that

The WFA scale should not really be used in conjunction with times imo..I use time differences rather than the WFA poundage

My calcs show me that in October a 2yo is 1 second per mile slower than the same standard of older horse...and that is how I calculate it..I don't refer to the WFA scale at all...because time and the WFA scale don't equate from what I've found

the WFA scale states a 2yo is 25lbs inferior to the older horse in October over a mile...which is quite a difference

if you do the back calcs over past results you will also conclude that 1 second is the difference in October..

Intense Focus ran an ok..ish time in the Dewhurst until you compare his time to New Approach's Dewhurst in 2007. NA beat the 7f G2 race time whereas IF was near a second slower than that race for instance.....NA's speed figure in his Dewhurst was 10lbs higher than IF's...thats an awful lot imo

I don't think last years Dewhurst was vintage on the clock..below average on my calcs ...compared to the last 15 runnings
 
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