2000 Guineas

I wonder if they will swap plans between rvw and westphalia, if rvw is not 100% sound in the next couple of days.
 
LBM said:
I wonder if they will swap plans between rvw and westphalia, if rvw is not 100% sound in the next couple of days.
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Its an option....interesting that the market did not react at all this morning...exact opposite in that the horse continued to shorten up. So perhaps it is minor.
 
My early thoughts are that the Dewhurst will provide the winner.

Intense Focus might have been 20/1 then but, knowing the record of the connections, that was a crazy price. I took 20/1 the other night when I realised how hot I think the Dewhurst form is. I went in again tonight, again at 20/1, when I saw how I fancied IF to beat, individually, those ahead of him in the market.

I also took longs adds about Monitor Closely in the expectation that he'll shorten up and I can lay it off. I reckon the sales race in which he came second to the Gosden horse was much hotter than generally reckoned. It stands to reason. It was the most valuable 3yo race of the season outside the classics so despite the fact that the principals didn't boast high ORs, it is hard to imagine it being anything other than very good form. It was also the fastest time on the day, the front two were clear of a race-fit O'Brien horse and I can see the race producing several winners of very good races this summer. In fact, I also backed the winner the other evening for the Derby. There's obviously the chance the mile will be a bit sharp for Monitor Closely - the Newmarket race was over 10f - but it was so fast he might be able to run prominently and make Saturday a test of stamina

Obviously I fear the Coolmore and Godolphin horses as I recon, as stated before, this is a good bunch. At the moment, though, I think I've stolen a bit of value and I can always back others nearer the time if I feel the need.
 
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I asked about this on that thread. He is still in the guineas so there is a chance of running if I were connections I would go for it it looks an open enough renewal and his form has some strength to it. I also would say by all accounts he badly needed the run first time out so he may come on a bundle for that. I'm on at 160-1 down to 100-1 on betfair for small amounts so i would just like to see a run.
 
The thing about MCM that gives me hope, despite he is not very hot in the betting, is the possibility that he is not a good worker at home. He was very easy to back before the Phoenix and he put up arguably the best performance by a juvenile in 2008 in that race. After that, he wasn´t favourite for the National either and connections alway were down on him for the Guineas, saying that he could be an sprinter. I think MCM is a hore that relish competition, good to firm ground and a mile shouldn´t be a problem and nothing came from the preps that makes me change my mind about him being the best form available. We soon will see.
 
LBM said:
The thing about MCM that gives me hope, despite he is not very hot in the betting, is the possibility that he is not a good worker at home. He was very easy to back before the Phoenix and he put up arguably the best performance by a juvenile in 2008 in that race. After that, he wasn´t favourite for the National either and connections alway were down on him for the Guineas, saying that he could be an sprinter. I think MCM is a hore that relish competition, good to firm ground and a mile shouldn´t be a problem and nothing came from the preps that makes me change my mind about him being the best form available. We soon will see.
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A good point, MCM looks like a grinder and one that is a remorseless galloper. RVW probably is the more classy worker.

I smiled somewhat when I read "The Couches" report in the Racing Post the other day that both MCM and RVW worked together (according to his source) last Friday on the Epsom gallop with RVW "winning" by a head and looking much the best horse. Firstly I would be amazed if O'Brien worked the two of them together a week before the Guineas and secondly why would they be working on the Epsom gallop for Newmarket when there are far more suitable gallops there for that straight test!!
 
If Intense Focus can be strongly fancied for the Newmarket 2000 Guineas than Recharge must be backed for the Irish equivalent at 14/1.
 
Galileo said:
A good point, MCM looks like a grinder and one that is a remorseless galloper. RVW probably is the more classy worker.
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The figures I've got indicate that MCM has only ever faced a fast pace once in his racing career and was soundly beaten. Come to think of it the same can be said for RVW too. Both of them are significantly behind recent Ballydoyle colts on their 2yo figures, (between 6 and 10L's) which would include George Washington, Horatio Nelson, Eagle Mountain, Holy Roman Emporer, and Henrythenavigator.

Pace looks like being a key to this race, as there's no shoratge of horses that seemd to be working within a comfort zone at 2. I reckon there were only 3 races run last term at proper group 1 pace (The RP Trophy, The Dewhurst and The Lagadere). Both the Ballydoyle colts met with their only defeats to date when they were asked to stretch out for the first time.

I tend to agree with Desert Orchid in that I think we could easily have under-estimated the Dewhurst form. Indeed, you could argue that 5th placed home (Delegator) has already boosted it in the Craven, and yet the support (which started prior to the trial) has been confined to the horse rather than those who've already beaten him. It might look like a slow race due to the bunched finish but the clock suggests it was one of the faster ones frm last year. It's perhaps not too surprising therefore that it threw up what was considered a shock winner and a few surprises in the places, as it was the first time that a lot of these horses were put through the wringer. What I think happened is that punters formed opinions about horses based on moderately run races into the lead up to the Dewhurst, and then set about defending these to the hilt (as is the punters way). The Dewhurst itself was run in a way that many of the combatants had hitherto had little experience of and a few were asked questions for the first time hence. I'm not totally sure that punters have latched on to this, and have instead simply sought to crab the form, rather than recognising that it asked different questions of the horses, and perhaps not surprisingly resulted in different answers. Punters are pathologically disposed to forming early opinions and defending them from there on in, and are notoriously reluctant to revise them (people were still calling Notnowcato a handicapper after he completed his Gp1 hat-trick). It's much easier to call something names and seek to discredit it when it reveals something that you don't like, or doesn't conform with what you wanted to happen. If you look for the explanation though, then I believe it points to pace, and with that, the key to the race.

If they go fast and make it a punishing stretch, then there's little at the front of the market that has claims in the book, and a few shocks would be on the cards unless somethings improved significantly on 2008 evidence. The market has been formed effectively on the back of moderately races (including the Craven) and if we get something similar again then it should be proven, on balance though I'm siding with Ladbrokes.

That Intense Focus had previously been beaten in all the races that involved a modest pace put in his best two performances in the Dewhurst and Lagadere (including a form reversal with MCM in the latter) might not be insignificant. His Leopardstown trial this term however, witnessed a return to another modest pace, and as such it bore little resemblence to the type of race he'd shown that he was suited by. His defeat under these circumstances might have been anticipated as it had happened enough times as a 2yo.

If they go a moderate pace then the likes of MCM, RVW, Evasive and to a lesser extent Delegator look suited by what they've done on their 2yo figures and form. A more searching pace would semingly bring Intense Focus, Cityscape, Lord Shankill and probably Sea The Stars and Arazan into play.

The one that might have both bases covered yet is Finjaan. I'm seriosuly struggling to believe you can source a Guineas winner out of the Molecombe, but he won that in a time just 0.35 secs short of the juvenile track record running into a head wind. A modest pace need not inconvenience him if it turns into a sprint as it should 'bring the trip back to him'. What did surprise me though, was that he came within a couple of noses of winning the Dewhurst off what looks like a brisk pace. With another 6 months maturation on his back, there's no real reason to believe that a mile is beyond him, although I can't pretend that I'm not concerned about his pilot's ability to find trouble in running
 
Warbler said:
Both the Ballydoyle colts met with their only defeats to date when they were asked to stretch out for the first time.
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And that's the only single factor you are considering in each of those runs? Ignoring MCM's lack lustre performance (and ignoring all his previous form with Intense Focus) and not taking into account the passage from stall 13 RVW had when clearly running as green as grass in the Dewhurst and not knocked about when finishing hard on the heels of the leaders by the time they crossed the line. How can a horse run to his best when he is over the top or too green to do himself justice....but you won't take that into account?

I find it hard to believe they went any faster at Longchamp on an easy enough surface over 7 furlongs early on than when MCM had a pacemaker fly off on fast ground at the Curragh over six furlongs when he travelled like a dream - a completely contrast to Longchamp when he was not travelling after a furlong.

It's a bit like taking the idea that Kauto Star ran below form in last seasons Gold Cup simply because Denman stretched him like never before when really there were many other factors in play.
 
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Reading your post again, and you put Intense Focus up as a positive if the pace is strong but RVW as a negative in the same circumstances despite RVW beaten beaten little more than 2 lengths under the most sympathetic of rides from a bad draw and from a horse who's breeding suggests he needs a mile (minimum) and should improve enormously from 2-3?

I know speed ratings (and your own in particular) Warbler have served you well for a long time now, but are they solely your judge of a horse/race?
 
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While you may be spectacularly wrong, I think that's a well-argued value angle.

Edit: that's aimed at Warbs and, indirectly, at DO.
 
If Rip Van Winkle was so looked after in the Dewhurst, and still only beaten 2 lengths, why didn't they not look after him and win the bloody thing? :)
 
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Speaking of Intense Focus, is he a guaranteed stayer of the mile? I find it hard to believe fitness caught him out, first time of asking, and he travelled very well last time only to tired in the last furlong of his first try over a mile at Leopardstown.

If Rip Van Winkle was so looked after in the Dewhurst, and still only beaten 2 lengths, why didn't they not look after him and win the bloody thing? :)
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Greeness ensured he couldn't win the race from half way.
 
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Thought he shaped like sprinter at Leopardstown, though his pedigree suggests a mile will be absolutely no problem.

I have my doubts about the overall form of the Heinz last year, Warbs, but if that was a slowly run race my eyes need testing!
 
Galileo said:
And that's the only single factor you are considering in each of those runs? Ignoring MCM's lack lustre performance (and ignoring all his previous form with Intense Focus)
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I feel you're failing to understand what I'm saying.

I deliberately made reference to the reversal of form in the Lagadere, (thus acknowledging previous) as I believe it was significant not for the fact it occurred, but because of the difference in the way races involving the two had previously been run. There can be little doubt that off a moderate pace and ona softer surface MCM holds Intense Focus with a degree of comfort. Intense Focus has only faced a fast pace twice and won the Dewhurst, and come third in the Lagadere. Falling back on the National Stakes and the Railway Stakes is bit like comparing apples with pears.

All things being equal in a true run Gp1, any horse (whether it be trained by Aiden O'Brien or anyone else) still has to cover X amount of ground in y amount of time to win. As 2yo's neither of the Ballydoyle colts were able to do this. As I noted, both were significantly down on the levels of performance put up by their recent alumni. That's not to say they can't, all it's saying is that so far to date, the only times they've been asked to try, they've both failed to place.

RVW in the Tyro ran the same C&D 0.60 secs slower than Gluteus Maximus. You can point to excuses for RVW, running green would be one of the more plausible, but he was still beaten by at least 5 horses likely to re-oppose, one of whom has franked the form since.

MCM would actually have been beaten into second in the Bousacc.
 
Maybe Magnier gave Wachman a better crop than intended, Bushranger,Pursuit Of Glory, Again, Chintz both producing good times - this could be the reason for Aiden/Magnier's little dispute, maybe Aiden know's his horse's aren't up to the levels of previous generations?

Sorry if im getting wrong end of the stick
 
Galileo said:
I find it hard to believe they went any faster at Longchamp on an easy enough surface over 7 furlongs early on than when MCM had a pacemaker fly off on fast ground at the Curragh over six furlongs when he travelled like a dream - a completely contrast to Longchamp when he was not travelling after a furlong.
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I can't find one shred of statistical data to support what you find "hard to believe" I'm afraid. In fact I'm sufficiently confused to ask for clarification. Are you suggesting that it was the Railway Stakes that was run on fast ground?
 
Warbler said:
I can't find one shred of statistical data to support what you find "hard to believe" I'm afraid. In fact I'm sufficiently confused to ask for clarification. Are you suggesting that it was the Railway Stakes that was run on fast ground?
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He means the Heinz, Warbler.
 
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