2000 Guineas

I wish I could find a (free) video of the race because there was one point where I thought he became slightly unbalanced. Oxx mentioned that he "showed his inexperience going into the dip"; it might have been that.
 
The first 5 home were Irish-trained or bred ....
On another note, Tom Segal today has:
".. STS certainly doesn't look like a miler and his long, loping stride isn't that of a miler either. IMO, he will not only stay but improve for the trip, and unless the ground is soft, he will be a very tough nut to crack at Epsom next month. So 4-1? Yes please."
" ... RVW is a miler ..."
 
rorydelargy said:
Wouldn't you say that Cape Cross is fairly neutral in terms of what speed/stamina he imparts? He has, of course, produced an Oaks winner already...
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I'd agree. CC is certainly not a prepotent influence anyway. However, Sadler's Wells is a preptotent split influence for middle-distance/stamina. So you would expect the two Sadler's Wells half brothers to outstay the Cape Cross, given that the dam side influence is the same.
 
mrussell said:
The first 5 home were Irish-trained or bred ....
On another note, Tom Segal today has:
".. STS certainly doesn't look like a miler and his long, loping stride isn't that of a miler either. IMO, he will not only stay but improve for the trip, and unless the ground is soft, he will be a very tough nut to crack at Epsom next month. So 4-1? Yes please."
" ... RVW is a miler ..."
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I think he probably isn't a Derby horse, although I agree with Gal that he does appear beautifully balanced. You would expect him to prove best at up to 10 furlongs though.

Segal as usual will tip half a dozen in the run up to the Derby. Then they'll claim a supernatural spot in the next day's paper for whichever one obliges.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I wish I could find a (free) video of the race because there was one point where I thought he became slightly unbalanced. Oxx mentioned that he "showed his inexperience going into the dip"; it might have been that.
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The video is free to watch on Racing UK. They seem to have started doing free replays now. Not sure when they started but you can get free replays for the last 7 days. About time too.
 
I know this may seem like hyperbole but Sea The Stars's running style , if not quite so impressive reminded me of Nijinsky's 2000 performance - i.e travelling beautifully and picking up rather than a rocketing miler's turn of foot.
 
tom segal is brilliant at the scattergun approach then the sporting life claim it as the best tipping service if one obliges.
 
endevour269 said:
tom segal is brilliant at the scattergun approach then the sporting life claim it as the best tipping service if one obliges.
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I like Segal, he is easy to have a pop at but I like him. In fairness he tipped Sea The Stars up when a much bigger price earlier in the spring.
 
Cape Cross is a strange sire in that he can indeed impart stamina, contrary to what you'd think going by his racing form, and I wouldn't for a minute say that a horse wasn't likely to stay simply because it is by him.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Cape Cross is a strange sire in that he can indeed impart stamina, contrary to what you'd think going by his racing form, and I wouldn't for a minute say that a horse wasn't likely to stay simply because it is by him.
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I don't tend to tip horses up on here, but Sea The Stars looks an enormous Derby contender to me, and although the shorter quotes about him aren't necessarily that attractive, the 5/1 with Coral immediately after the event looked absolutely massive to me and his general price is more than fair even now. How he can't be better at 10 furlongs than a mile is beyond me, and the Derby should be within his scope, given that he will probably be a stone superior at the intermediate trip. Bear in mind that this is a very ordinary year in terms of 3yo talent.
 
rorydelargy said:
Bear in mind that this is a very ordinary year in terms of 3yo talent.
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Over the Derby trip that is far from certain. Unlike New Approach Sea the Stars isn`t guaranteed to improve for the step up to 12f. That makes him slightly vulnerable and i`ll be looking to take him on.
 
rorydelargy said:
Bear in mind that this is a very ordinary year in terms of 3yo talent.
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they still need to stay though...El Gran Senor's year wasn't chock full of great horses either..still got beat

most years at this point we tend to think the Derby is a bit light weight beforehand..particularly now that there are plenty of other options for horses

the derby could end up like the Leger in 20 years time re quality of fields..KG is already going that way
 
I got the chance this evening to check the times on Saturday.

I have to conclude that it was a fast time and the form is well up to proper G1 class. Not up with the very best recent guineas winners like Kings Best but very good.

I have the winner on 125+ which would make me think Gan Ahmras can hit at least that in the Derby, which would be good enough to win the majority of the last ten renewals.

It doesn't mean GA is as good as past the post but it might take something as good as Authorized to beat him.
 
rorydelargy said:
Bear in mind that this is a very ordinary year in terms of 3yo talent.
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Not sure I agree with that. In addition to Sea The Stars, the likes of Fame And Glory, Crowded House, Rip Van Winkle, Gan Ahmras, Mastercraftsman and Delegator (the latter two up to 10 furlongs perhaps) all look serious prospects.

That said, it might well turn out to be an average year; it's surely far too early to be making that assertion in early May though.
 
Surely to some extent this notion of being a good year etc is almost self-regulating in that the same races are run year in, year out and by definition something has to win them, and in doing so will stake their claims almost by default. By the time we go into the Derby we're bound to be confronted with the usual number of horses who have thus advertised their credentials, and on paper at least it is almost bound to look competitive by virtue of having so many different horses with something behind them that's capable of being pushed forward in their support.

My inclination (as it was in their 2yo careers) is similar to Rory's in that it might not be a vintage crop, but could be a competitive one in that they strike me as being a moderate bunch of similar abilities. As they move into open company they might be flattered a little bit by the fact that so many of last years leading 3yo's seem to have been retired (I'm not sure whether this is true incidentally, but it was an impression I sort of formed)
 
Shadow Leader said:
Cape Cross is a strange sire in that he can indeed impart stamina, contrary to what you'd think going by his racing form, and I wouldn't for a minute say that a horse wasn't likely to stay simply because it is by him.
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You're right that performance on the racecourse has no necessary connection with what they impart as breeding animals. However, that's not the reason that STS is unlikely to stay as well as his Sadler's Wells half brothers.

STS is unlikely to stay as well as his Sadler's Wells half brothers as Cape Cross shows no prepotency for a trip but is rather led by the dam. Whereas Sadler's Well does show prepotency. And as the dam sides are identical the Cape Cross colt should have less stamina aptitude than the Sadler's Wells colts by the same mare.
 
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