2000 Guineas

mourayan will beat fame in derrinstown I think

mourayan just half length inferior to STS last year and this one is guaranteed to stay

i feel mourayan is very underrated on this board since last run
 
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EC1 said:
just read this on tother forum

Sea The Stars may be the new Derby favourite but he wont go to Epsom. Why I hear you ask? Mourayan thats why. John Oxx is slowly but surely turning up the heat on this one for the Derby and he runs in the Derrinstown in the coming weeks.

what is the opinion of you guys about this?
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I agree whole heartedly with that, Mourayan had plenty left to work on the last day and got a nice educational,coming through horses to sprint to the line. Kinda like what you might need to do at Epsom. The result looked like it was of secondary importance to the Oxx team.
 
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Why would one going to Epsom necessarily influence where the other one goes? Different owners.
 
I read that sts is the second runner in the race trained by Oxx, who was the first one?
 
Azamour.

Great performance.

RVW not good enough, and i hope that stops the amount of column inches on him for a while.

MCM looked like track an issue.

Gan Amhras is a serious Derby prospect.
 
Hamm said:
RVW not good enough, and i hope that stops the amount of column inches on him for a while.
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Did RVW run more like a 33/1 shot or the 5-6/1 shot he was on the day? I would have thought you would have given the horse a bit more credit seeing as you dismissed him and he was beaten under 2 lengths in a race where he would arguably have been third but for Gan Amhras not doing him any favours.

You underestimated the horse (suggested previously he is a 33/1 shot) the horse got beat but plenty of promise displayed for the future particularly given how Ballydoyle horses continue to progress over the season from run to run.
 
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I compared him with Sea the Stars in terms of value. I also said (as well as backing Gam Amhras and Ashram) that the value play was laying both Ballydoyle horses for a place.

He will surely come on, and be better than the bare form. However, his form before the race was that of a 33/1 shot and I stand by that. I think he will win races, but not a normal-standard Group 1. But, I expect those first 6 or 7 to come on too (delegator aside), and all of them have shown more, for me, than RVW.

Sea the Stars won, for me, with an awful lot up his sleeve. Knowing Oxx's horses, I would expect there to be an awful lot left so combining the two, I'm hoping Sea the Stars could be the 'star' of the season.
 
It's all well and good saying his form was that of a 33/1 shot, but would you as a bookie have seriously laid that price? Of course not.

I'd be surprised if any of the horses behind RVW improved past him given it was the horse's 4th run and he had an interupted preparation. Francombe also commented on Channel4 that he thought the horse looked in need of the run. The market also suggested that the two colts were not that strongly fancied on the day.

I too backed Sea The Stars (and Gan Amhras) and had RVW backed at 20s antepost. In terms of fitness, I do not think STS has that much improvement to come as they horse was kept on the go all winter (more so than Arazan) and in early spring Oxx was reporting him to be well ahead of schedule (almost too much so). Obviously I expect him to improve as he gets older but in terms of fitness, I think he was pretty much straight as the market suggested.
 
Kinane said, on RUK, that Sea The Stars had missed some work (can't remember why) and that his preparation had been a bit hurried. From memory, I think he said that the horse hadn't worked that well earlier this week on soft ground but when he had a work-out on Thursday, I think, on decent ground he gave Mick a good feel and the decision was made to run.
 
EC1 said:
like said though Steve, IF they didn't go too hard early then the sf is very decent..an even pace would surely have seen a better figure

any horse that closed late is worth watching - it wasn't easy to do that
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Agree entirely.
 
Hamm said:
RVW not good enough, and i hope that stops the amount of column inches on him for a while.
Gan Amhras is a serious Derby prospect.
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I agree with you that GA's performance brings him right into serious Derby reckoning even more than the winner (as much as I like him), I'd say.

I think you're being too hard on RVW though. Although I'm still not totally sold on this horse, he ran a great race and will come on for this more than any of the leading players here, both in terms of fitness and when stepped up in trip.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nothing was finishing more strongly than Monitor Closely.
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but wasn't exactly in at the finish DO was he? the further back a horse finishes diminishes the achievement

you would have to say that teh 2nd has run well against the pace bias more than most

i'd be happy to take Delegator and RVW out of the race as worth following re running well against the pace
 
I will be very interested to know if anyone has done any sectionals on that race because the first 3 furlongs looked moderate to say the least. At this point the race turned into a sprint imo opinion which would not have suited GA and RVW. For GA to have finished where he did with his stamina laden pedigree you would have to be impressed. I also think RVW badly needed the run and will be one to watch for the rest of the season. Sea the stars looked exceptional in the paddock and on the course but I think time will show he is a pure miler and not a horse that is going to excel over further he is too quick. Delegator may turn out to be better over 7f this year (ala Paco Boy) Of the other horses I agree with DO nothing was finishing better than Monitor Closely and I will be following him closely no pun intended over the remaining season in races of 10f. Think it will be interesting if he turns up at the Dante and the eclipse may be perfect for him.
 
EC1 said:
but wasn't exactly in at the finish DO was he? the further back a horse finishes diminishes the achievement
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Monitor Closely was only 4½l off the runner-up spot having been stone last and going nowhere 3f out.

I just wonder if his fast time at the Craven Meeting was down to his holding a prominent position in a moderate early pace before showing his speed in the final half-mile. It hasn't put me off Nehaam altogether for the Derby and I'd still fancy Monitor Closely to rune well over a mile on a round track.

Another angle: could Alan Munro be unsettling the horses? Lahaleeb was also being scrubbed along after a furlong today.
 
Does quickness rule out a good run in the Derby? That's not a rhetorical question, just asking about past facts. However, he's only run over 7 & 8f.
 
mrussell said:
Does quickness rule out a good run in the Derby? That's not a rhetorical question, just asking about past facts. However, he's only run over 7 & 8f.
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They have to be both quick and stay to win the Derby. STS’s half brothers Galileo and Black Sam Bellamy (both by Sadler’s Wells) stayed, although STS should prove a bit sharper as his sire is Cape Cross rather than Sadler’s Wells. STS should prove best at up to 10 furlongs.
 
well I've gone from thinking STS was a Derby horse to thinking he is now an 8-10f horse

before the guineas i was convinced he would place..the perfect Derby tune up

just shows how you can change a view

Derby will have more ifs and buts this year than ever before i reckon
 
EC1 said:
well I've gone from thinking STS was a Derby horse to thinking he is now an 8-10f horse

before the guineas i was convinced he would place..the perfect Derby tune up

just shows how you can change a view

Derby will have more ifs and buts this year than ever before i reckon
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The Guineas third GA and Fame And Glory, together with Crowded House and possibly RVW seem better types for the Derby to me.

STS will be hard to beat at trips of up to 10f though.
 
SteveM said:
They have to be both quick and stay to win the Derby. STS’s half brothers Galileo and Black Sam Bellamy (both by Sadler’s Wells) stayed, although STS should prove a bit sharper as his sire is Cape Cross rather than Sadler’s Wells. STS should prove best at up to 10 furlongs.
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Wouldn't you say that Cape Cross is fairly neutral in terms of what speed/stamina he imparts? He has, of course, produced an Oaks winner already...
 
He seems to defer to the dam side of the pedigree. Russian cross (by a Dancing Brave mare) was a 10f animal whereas Ouija Board stayed 12f well as her damsire Welsh Pageant was a huge influence for stamina.
 
One thing is for sure, Sea The Stars is not only stunning to look at but he also appears to be blessed with a wonderful temperment. Why his breeding suggests he might struggle to get the 12 furlongs (or at least not improve as much for it as others), his temperment should stand him in good stead on Derby day and help him to relax/settle during the race.
 
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