2016 Gold Cuppin

I am merely stating the facts, Frankel.

I dunno why. I'm not at all worried about the non-threat that is Djakadam. This Gold Cup is going to take a lot more winning than he is capable of getting near. Has about 10lbs to find already, and it will be a stone when they return Vautour and CC to Cheltenham. You and the rest of the Djakadders have backed a no-hoper, as far as I'm concerned. I hope you win a bundle Tuesday through Thursday though. :D
 
100% sure. What, exactly, would there to be worried about anyway?

That he was second in a thinner race last year, the one time he has completed the course?

Wooooooh!! Scary stuff indeed!

:lol:
 
F**k me you actually have convinced yourself. I did at least think you would have an element of doubt (which would be logical).

You're too far gone. You can't be saved :lol:

Bless you lad :D
 
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Cue Card is a different horse to previous seasons.
He was a "non stayer" to us all.
I think he's the best horse going into this.
 
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Certainly a horse on a roll this year with perfect preparation and could not be trained by a nicer guy or ridden by a more appreciative jockey.
It has the makings of a classic race.
I only hope the going does not mess it up.
WPM will do all in his power to win this as will Giggi; that a flat cap West Country farmer could out do them would be a sight to behold !
 
Frankel said:
Djakadam had just come from a brutal Gold Cup. I wouldn't be assuming he put up the same level of performance.
He was also just a baby at 6 and fully entitled to improve this season if the previous hadn't left a mark. His Durkan showed he was still the business, and over a shorter trip which was good to see.
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss him.
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Don Cossack just had a real tough rough race against Unixandre who carried 6lbs more than Vautour and clocked a faster time than him.

A mistake at a crucial time that would have put most horses out of the race was ignored as he fought his way back into only to be the meat in the sandwich and stopped in his tracks.

Someone said his fall at Kempton was that of a tired horse but if you watch himin the Ryanair he looked as if he has gone and will be lucky to jump the last.

He puts in a great leap clearing the fence by a mile and storms up the hill to finish 3rd.

Only a very good horse can do that and I'll be damned if he didn't have a tougher race that day than Djackadam.

If Djackadam was suffering from a hard race when he ran at Punchestown he made a good job of hiding it.

WPM wouldn't have sent him if he wasn't up for it, he's gone of a short priced favourite and he's beaten Road to Riches 4 lengths further than he did in the Gold Cup.

You could argue that the ground changed on the Friday at Cheltenham and it was tougher for the horses but that's a fallacy.

For one it depends if a horse goes in softer ground or not and Djackadam's best form is in soft ground which will be a huge minus for him if it's good fast ground this year.

I do think he's a plodder and talk of him having the speed for a Ryanir based on beating Valseur Lido over 2m4f doesn't do it for me.

Gilgamboa is slow and he finished right behind Valseur Lido that day so it would appear like Valseur Lido basically needed it.

Thew biggest negative card was played by Noel Meade/Eddie O'Leary when he/they decided Road to Riches who finished just behind Djackadam in the Gold Cup would miss the race this time round..

I doubt if O'Leary and Meade did it because they are scared of Djackadam. They know better than anyone this is a much better Gold Cup and his horse has no chance off winning so he's heading for the easier option despite the fact he's still in the Gold Cup betting.

It's not a bad train of thought 6 year old finishhes 2nd in Gold Cup matures wins it next year but this is the best Gold Cup since Kauto Star kicked Denman and co into touch :)
 
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Tanlic said:
That win over Djackadam was a better performance than the Gold Cup winner put up he absolutely hammered the Gold Cup runner up who ran the race he always runs.
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No, Fist!
Djakadam has had 5 races over 3m or more. In only 1 has he not raced mid-div and moved up later - the Punchestown GC. Raced keenly in that contest, and took it up from RTR (no mug himself) early in the race, and went toe-to-toe from that point. Neither horse lasted home in those circumstances, and DC stayed on to pick up the pieces.
In a normal ground GC, and Djak not pulling, I'll be highly surprised if DC ever lays a glove on him.



PS That's probably why RTR heads to the RyanAir, too.
 
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Frankel said:
F**k me you actually have convinced yourself. I did at least think you would have an element of doubt (which would be logical).

You're too far gone. You can't be saved :lol:

Bless you lad :D
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We're in that pre-Festival window, where you should never drop your guard, never concede an inch, and never listen to reason. Anyone who fails to observe these maxims, will only get picked-off by the vultures*.

* That means two things.

:lol:

:cool:
 
The only thing I am totally sure off is thr winners name will srart with the letter "D" Don Cossack. Don Poli. Due card. Dautour or Alang King's Dad Place....

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Tanlic said:
I don't use clips I have the full videos on my desktop and don't depend on connections either. Whatsmore I can't agree with your findings nor do I understand what you can possibly learn from comparing the two that will solve the GC puzzle. Just why on earth are you comparing Long Run to Cue Card is there a point to this?

I did it for the hell of it and ran both races side by side and there's no way does Long Run finish 20 lengths in front. You might be talking 10 lengths but not 20. Not that it matters.

That is hardly surprising as the two races from that point were not run in the same manner. Nacarat had set sail for home and was flat to the board with Long Run in pursuit plus SWC was well aware AP was right up his backside.

They were flying and between the 13th fence and the bend and they were already 6 lengths up on Vautour who was still being held on to by Ruby and Cue Card was just staring to get going.

You simply can't compare two races being run in two different ways...I can't see what you hope to gain from it at all.
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the 20 lengths has got muddled up with me copy and pasting from earlier posts...i probably originally said it wrong.....its from fence 13 where Long Run runs 4 seconds faster than CC..i apologise to you and Clive..we started at it it being 2 out:lol:..i was tired last night though

just to clarify..these are the 6 split comparisons between Long Run & CC..Long Run ground was 2 lengths per mile slower than when CC won..so these times should not be in favour of Long Run

F1 – F4F4 – F7F7 – F10
Cue Card59.9559.4070.4359.2058.9539.26347.19
Long Run60.4360.2869.6159.7756.9637.46344.51

<tbody>
[TD="width: 66"] F10 – F13 [/TD]
[TD="width: 66"] F13 – F16 [/TD]
[TD="width: 66"] F16 – FIN [/TD]
[TD="width: 11"][/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] Total [/TD]

</tbody>

lets do this right:lol:..

from fence 16 = 3 out...Long Run runs to the line 1.8 seconds faster than CC....9 lengths..thats after running 2 seconds faster from f13-f16. So from fence 13 to line in total LR has run 19/20 lengths faster than CC..on slower ground.

Up to fence 13 they trade sections with CC running about just 5 lengths in total faster..the slower ground negates that though as you would expect CC to run the sections a little faster ..so with the differing going its fair to say they have used very similar petrol up to fence 13

from fence 13 ...if CC is a horse of the same staying ability as Long Run..which he should be as both are similar rated hosses..he should be running as fast as Long Run from Fence 13..if he truly stays to the ability of a mid 170's hoss.

but..he doesn't..Long Run just gets away from him from fence 13..and beats him by ..in f13-f16 section..by 2 seconds...then from 3 out by a further 1.8 seconds

so using Long Run 2010 as a staying benchmark of a mid 170's hoss...CC isn't near him. The SC comparison concludes the same..CC doesn't stay like a mid 170's hoss on that performance. Thats not taking owt away from him..he won..but if a 2010 Long Run or 2014 SC had been in there he wouldn't have done. The fact that SC hasn't been same hoss this year isn't relevant..he didn't run anything like his old self until last saturday.

what relevance is that then?..well you are comparing CC to two hosses that are mid 170's hosses that stay 3 miles to a benchmark level we can use to measure others from.

winning at 3 miles and truly staying 3 miles is two different things...all 3 hosses won at 3 miles..but did one win because on the day..oppo didn't run to best and only possible hoss that could have truly stayed ..fell?...imo yes

i think that because CC and V were going slowly when compared to what is expected at the end..they were sitting ducks..not because a strong pace had tired them..but simply because they weren't staying well enough..we know that because we have seen how fast Long Run and SC ran late after facing a similar early/mid pace.

What the figures tell me is that there is petrol missing with CC over 3 miles..he shouldn't be losing by so much late on to two other hosses that faced a similar pace test..and are classed as being of similar ability. To stay 3m2.5f at Cheltenham..you need to be at least meeting the KG benchmark imo.
 
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