2018 Gold Cuppin'

TF have based their figure on his time rather than his opponents, which automatically makes it more legit than his RPR.
 
Maruco said:
I've been scratching my head over this for a few days, and whilst I can make a case for an unusually high rating if I rate BDM through Cue Card, Outlander, and T4T, I just can't do that. The rating makes no sense, and I suspect we have the unusual situation where the remainder of the field have run some considerable way below their best. In fact it's not difficult to make that case. Cue Card is clearly in decline, has become a serial faller, and wasn't ridden in to his fences at all. In fact he showed no zest or sparkle at all.

The alternative is to rate BDM through the time achieved on heavy ground at Haydock. The problem with that is I can't trust any distance that Kirkland Tellwrong gives, and the I can't make a direct comparison to previous renewals because of the distance change.

Ultimately I'd say it's impossible to put an accurate figure on BDM's performance on Saturday. Visually it was mightily impressive, but the overall time if I take it as accurate for the conditions and distance, even if I'm being generous, doesn't back it up. And I have to conclude anyone going for monstrous figures for BDM is either guessing, or looking through rose tinted spectacles. There is no satisfactory basis that I can find to give him a rating that is off the charts. Particularly as we would need to believe he has produced a performance so far beyond the ability he has shown before or is likely to show again, even if it is at his favourite track under favourable conditions.

The bottom line for me is I'm not prepared to believe he has put up a performance beyond 170 unless anyone can find me hard evidence to back it up, that doesn't include Cue Card running to an imaginary mark. He's never done it before after multiple attempts, including at his favourite course under his favoured conditions.

I should add that I say this as a supporter of the horse and have no axe to grind. I thoroughly enjoyed watching his demolition job, but realistic enough to know it was in a very specific context, against opposition who just didn't perform at all on the day.
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I was just coming on to say something similar, having had a closer look at the day's events.

I was coming on to say I've spotted an error in my calculations which brings down BDM's rating to 180+. I'm prepared to allow that rating for the time being but will treat it with caution, certainly away from Haydock.

As you say, working from times at Haydock is rendered almost pointless due to historical incompetence regarding course measurements and timings. However, we do have one reference point from which to extract some meaningful conclusion and that is the handicap chase run over course and distance half an hour later. In that race they appeared to go off strongly - the TV commentator said they got to the winning post after the first fence two seconds faster in the handicap - and keep up a good pace the whole way. While it may be meaningful it can't be regarded as compelling just yet.

So I am prepared to accept for the time being that BDM is a 180 horse here and in these conditions but I'll want to see him show the ability elsewhere as the only other time he got near this was in a handicap on the same course in similar conditions last season.
 
I'm applying a sort of Occam's Razor approach to this race.

For my money, it's much more likely that the opposition have woefully under-performed in the given conditions, than BdM has put up a performance that is legitimately amongst the best in staying chases in the last 30 years. I'd say it's almost on the verging on impossible to accurately rate to be honest, and it's all a bit academic anyway, given BdM will never run in a handicap now, and is highly-unlikely to get these conditions again........until next year's Betfair Chase, at least.

I suppose you have to give him something, and the TF figure seems to be more based in reality than the RPR.
 
Not really fair, Lee.

At no stage have I dismissed the performance as top-drawer. The only thing I have questioned is the exalted rating that RPR have awarded.

I haven’t looked at the links, but already know in my head that Dato Star must feature in at least one of them. :p
 
Was only f**king about mate, I know you haven’t.

But yes, they are Dato Star’s two champion hurdle trials where he dismisses Collier Bay and Relkeel by 20l and 17l respectively.

My post was only half tongue in cheek though as Bristol De Mai reminded me of Dato Star in their liking to Haydock’s demands and Dato Star sprung to mind after last year’s Gold Cup when BDM was slightly reminiscent of him in Istabraq’s inaugural Champion Hurdle.

Dato showed twice just what can be achieved when the mud is flying at Haydock and you’re that much more suited to it than your opponents.
 
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I try not to think about that Champion Hurdle too often, pal - the memories are too painful!

It’s a fair comparison though. Some horses are just mudlarks, and don’t show their best form on quicker ground. I suspect there’s a touch of that about BDM.
 
granger said:
How would BDM fare in this weekends Hennessy if he were in off top weight?
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Interesting question. Would he perform as well at Newbury on likely goodish ground?

He'd have got into the race off 160, set to carry 11-7 [should Coneygree stand his ground], the same weight as on Saturday. He's been put up to 173 so the handicapper reckons he'd have a spit off a stone in hand. Theoretically, that would win nine out of ten Hennessys.

But would he run to that level of form?
 
I am listening to presenters after the race and never have I heard so much nonsense......BDM jumped brilliantly????.......what a crock of **** he never put in one outstanding jump that I saw.

Cue Card withdrawn from the King George and ready for the retirement home simply is not old self and everything was beaten in the ground from 1 1/2 miles from home.

Back under normal conditions BDM will win nothing...nowts nada for the rest of the season......
 
Desert Orchid said:
Interesting question. Would he perform as well at Newbury on likely goodish ground?

He'd have got into the race off 160, set to carry 11-7 [should Coneygree stand his ground], the same weight as on Saturday. He's been put up to 173 so the handicapper reckons he'd have a spit off a stone in hand. Theoretically, that would win nine out of ten Hennessys.

But would he run to that level of form?
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Given an uncontested lead, on heavy ground, and allowed to jump at his own speed, possibly so - but where would you find such races?
The sheer notion that a class horse can suddenly find a stone, or more, improvement in his 16th steeplechase, is just too daft to warrant discussion, imo
 
It still doesn't explain Dodging Bullets from recent memory. We're talking here about the top class horses not handicappers who had enough races and are completely exposed. Top ones can find a combination of improvement and race conditions that allows them to show levels of form well beyond their regular. Thats how SS achieved a stone better rating than his precedent 15 races and I'm sure there are many other examples.

Ground is as important as trip, if a horse runs to 100 mark over a mile then suddenly races over 6f and runs to 110, then clearly his ideal race conditions allowed him to achieve it. Its rather silly to dismiss his improvement and not take into consideration how good he is inside those race parameters. And its not like CC doesn't act on that ground, just last year he destroyed Coneygree in the same race on similar going description. Arguing against 185 RPR rating should not be made by using generalizations like horses don't find improvement after x races, as there're clearly exceptions, or he couldn't have ran to a figure higher than X horse from the past as thats going backwards on the trail instead of starting with the evidence and arriving at an objective conclusion.
 
Aughex said:
Top ones can find a combination of improvement and race conditions that allows them to show levels of form well beyond their regular. Thats how SS achieved a stone better rating than his precedent 15 races and I'm sure there are many other examples.
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Explain this bit to me. Are you talking about Sprinter Sacre??
 
Sprinter Sacre only improved a stone from the day he went chasing. in the mind of the handicapper.

Good judges knew from the time he jumped the 5th at Donnie he was something really special.

His Arkle performance was actually better than his QMCC one in every sense of the word.

Dodging Bullets highlights what wrong with the handicapping in the UK.

He's a 165 horse he beats an recovering Sprinter Sacre so he goes up to 171 which was nonsense

He wins a weakened QMCC off 171 beating a 161 rated horse into 2nd by 1 1/2 lengths which doesn't compute as well as a 168 rating would have.

From there on in it's downhill at 100 mph
 
reet hard said:
The sheer notion that a class horse can suddenly find a stone, or more, improvement in his 16th steeplechase, is just too daft to warrant discussion, imo
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He's also very young, still just a 6yo so entitled to improve with age.

Then again, he might be one of those precocious French 6yos whose form will start to go into decline before he's eight, not unlike Long Run.

I haven't backed BDM so far this season but you all know I was all over him like a rash for last year's Gold Cup on the basis of his haydock win so I suppose there is a little bit of bias in me that wants to see him justify my high opinion of him.

As DG points out, he might just be a mid-winter type whose form starts to desert him as the mornings and evenings start to get brighter.
 
Dunno that age comes into it, DO. He's had 16 chase starts, and very few of them improve after that many outings - they're usually a relatively open-book by that stage in their fencing careers.
 
Grasshopper said:
Explain this bit to me. Are you talking about Sprinter Sacre??
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Yes Sprinter on RP scale, on his nth start was given a rating of 190 from his previously best 178: https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/750129/sprinter-sacre

As @wilsonl pointed out with Dato Star who was awarded an 175 rating at Haydock in those conditions.. I don't know CH winners in the past 20 years that achieved that figure, other than Faugheen and Istabraq. Horses can put up performances out of their own norm when the right conditions are met.
 
Difference with Sacre was that he was undefeated and still a hugely progressive horse at that stage in his career. It's an invalid comparison.
 
You're making it invalid for unrelated reasons to their performances on the day during which they achieved those huge improvements. Another recent example at the top level would be Don Cossack, which after many chase starts could obtain only 169 then put up to 181 for his stunning Aintree win.
 
Again, your comparison is invalid, because Don Cossack proved that he was still progressive in all of his subsequent outings after Aintree.

I'll concede you the point if BdM proves me wrong, and now goes on to win the King George.

Prepare to be disappointed.
 
The point strengths its validity even more so when you're using bias to judge bits of their career to explain why they've received such high ratings whilst everything I've said in the past few posts was that in order to not place an arbitrary figure on a performance you need to judge it on the day and consider the race conditions, what happened during the race, finishing positions, start with these and not the other way around. You can't say well he couldn't ran to that because he had X races already, or he couldn't ran to that as my favourite horse ran to this and he's better than him..

The examples I gave weren't about horses improving all along their career but one spectacular performance in certain race conditions that went above everything else they have previously ran to. With BDM, he's only 6yo he could also be improving but 185 RP achieved on the day is what they did with Don Cossack, SS, Dodging Bullets at one point in their career.. these are the most recent on top of my head without researching but I'm sure there are more.

The GC test will suit him much better than the KG. If the GC ground goes his way expect to be vying for favourite and if the race unfolds his way maybe even win it. I'm saying this in spite of me holding almost all the multiples on Might Bite winning the GC, I only have a small single ticket on BDM so I would prefer him to lose but given his performance and the level he showed last week I'm very worried about him coming close in reproducing it.
 
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A few points for you to consider:

1. The RPRs given to both Sprinter Sacre and Don Cossack were not isolated, and were wholly validated in subsequent outings. This is the critical difference you seem to be missing.
2. Suggesting that BDM might still improve because of his age is hopelessly optimistic for two reasons; he's had 23 rules starts, and his form outside a bog in Haydock is there for all to see.
3. He was beaten pointless in last season's Gold Cup, and even on Soft ground, would be beaten pointless again. His record strongly suggests he wants a flat track.
4. Don't accuse me of bias, if you're holding a Gold Cup voucher on the horse.

Now kindly do one.
 
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