2018 Gold Cuppin'

Bristol De Mai has been given an RPR of 185 for his 57 lengths defeat of Cue Card on Saturday (RPR 128).

To put this in perspective, Desert Orchid managed to beat BDM's rating from Saturday just once and it also exceeds every rating Kauto Star ever received, except, funnily enough, for the time he battered Madison du Berlais by 36 lengths in the 2009 King George. Was that Kauto's best performance? No, I didn't think so either.

It seems obvious to me there's a big problem with taking wide margin wins literally, especially on testing ground. Once the elastic snaps and a horse drops out of contention additional lengths gained are no longer equivalent.

As far as I'm concerned Bristol's performance on Saturday was certainly impressive but the race fell apart. I make no apologies to the ditch dwellers on here who refuse to tolerate flat racing when I say it was reminiscent of Hawk Wing's Lockinge in which, yes, every other horse in the race underperformed.

PS: Timeform's 173+ is much nearer the mark, although I would probably remove the +.
 
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It's true that the others couldn't cope and fair dues to you for backing him, but I don't believe it was one of the great performances of all time.
 
My opinion of RPR’s is hopefully as well established as my opinion of Flat racing by now; and both are in snakes-belly territory. Art needs to go in the sin-bin for 5 minutes, and reflect on the fact that he is a very naughty boy.

BDM is clearly progressive and top-class in Saturday’s conditions, but he has beaten a horse rising 12yo who has been a shadow of his former-self for 18 months, and two of the most inconsistent (least consistent?) G1 winners you will find anywhere.

The quality of BDMs performance is certainly for trusting, but the value of the form is not, and the figure awarded by RPR makes a mockery of many much-more solid outings by top-class chasers, in recent years (imho). The fact that it’s higher than any figure they ever produced for Denman, is evidence enough to demonstrate it’s retarded. They’re a shower of giddy arses, if you ask me.
 
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It was an incredible performance but ultimately all it managed to achieve was a) reaffirm himself unbeatable in heavy ground at Haydock and b) completely blow his mark for the 2019 National :ninja:

Although he'd no doubt go off fav regardless after he destroys field in the trial race with top weight.
 
Do I think BDM can win a Gold Cup? - No

Was he impressive Saturday? - Yes

Did the race raise enough questions that i'd query any excessive reaction ratings wise?- Yes

Do I like grey's (Art excluded even though he did mention some obscure flat animal on this thread? - not really

But you have tipped Petit Mouchoir for the Arkle? - Under The Fishwifes Act 2011 I have special discretion towards following a particular course when the outcome is not obvious to many around me
 
PJ, it's time to let you in on a little secret.
You and Grassy might prefer to think baby jumps horses are delivered by the stork but - guess what? - almost all of them are in fact fathered by 'obscure flat animals'. :ninja:

Counselling is available.
 
I don't mind them if they're podgering away in a barn somewhere, throwing good staying stock.

It's the reference to their drab racing careers on the Gold Cup thread I object to. ;)
 
You could say that about a lot of horses. The marks Dessie and Kauto put up at Kempton they never replicated at Cheltenham
 
Good point Euro but as their optimum conditions were the norm they were being challenged by the best year in year out over what is perceived a level playing field. The problem BDM faces is his optimum conditions seem to be so far removed from others' that he may never get the recognition he deserves.

I'm not the first to say it but were the Gold Cup run at Haydock in November then we could be looking at a multiple winner. Alas it isn't.
 
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Euronymous said:
You could say that about a lot of horses. The marks Dessie and Kauto put up at Kempton they never replicated at Cheltenham
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The issue with this argument is that both Dessie and Kauto had multiple other performances which corroborated them as top-class, and capable of running to very high marks.

BDM has two freakish Haydock performances on bottomless ground. Everything else he has done over fences is a significantly less good, and you therefore have to question the value of the Haydock runs.
 
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He doesn't perform well at Cheltenham but that aside I don't see the issue. What if he ran in a Hennessy off 170 on bottomless ground?

Denman needed his conditions also - he was bang average away from Cheltenham and Newbury.
 
If he wins the GC, everything about him will be revised, he's only 6 so lets wait to have more evidence before judging his career as if its over. Beating a G1 field by 50+ lengths is rare, so I'm not sure a 185 is that exaggerated because like numerous other examples some horses just have a one-time performance rated very highly and doesn't take anything from them when they ran below that in different conditions.

Its also not like he stole it from them, they were just in behind when he started to gallop further and further away, if he needs those conditions to reach his best what is the problem? All handicappers rate horses by their best conditions(pace of the race, ground, opposition quality, etc.) so why should his performance be downgraded just because he had his ideal conditions...
 
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Euronymous said:
He doesn't perform well at Cheltenham but that aside I don't see the issue. What if he ran in a Hennessy off 170 on bottomless ground?

Denman needed his conditions also - he was bang average away from Cheltenham and Newbury.
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BdM was easily despatched at Newbury by Native River, and by tea For Two at Aintree, and in fact by Otago Trail at Newcastle, and by Seeyouatmidnight by Carlisle.

He is clearly very good under certain conditions, but imo, he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as a horse like Denman (who also won a Lexus with his head in his chest), let alone get a higher RPR.
 
Aughex said:
If he wins the GC, everything about him will be revised, he's only 6 so lets wait to have more evidence before judging his career as if its over. Beating a G1 field by 50+ lengths is rare, so I'm not sure a 185 is that exaggerated because like numerous other examples some horses just have a one-time performance rated very highly and doesn't take anything from them when they ran below that in different conditions.

Its also not like he stole it from them, they were just in behind when he started to gallop further and further away, if he needs those conditions to reach his best what is the problem? All handicappers rate horses by their best conditions(pace of the race, ground, opposition quality, etc.) so why should his performance be downgraded just because he had his ideal conditions...
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Forget his age. It is completely irrelevant for a horse who has had 16 starts in chases.
 
He doesn't perform well at Cheltenham because he's out of his league it's got nothing to do with the course the going or the man in the moon

What he is is a 159 horse who beat a 155 horse 1/2 length who was handed a Grade 1 to him on a plate.

So instead of putting him up to about the same rating 166 he got for winning the Peter Marsh...a mark he was well and truly stuffed off by a 169 horse the idiot handicapper gives him a 173.

That is 4lbs below what Kauto Star was given for beating Exotic Dancer 8 lengths in the King George.........don't make me fooking laugh that thing wouldn't have gotten within 10 lengths of Kauto on a bad day.

The sad thing is 2 races down the line he'll be back in the mid 60"s where he belongs. This i8s just a case of the handicapper treating all Grade 1 chases as real Grade 1 which they are not
 
Grasshopper said:
BdM was easily despatched at Newbury by Native River, and by tea For Two at Aintree, and in fact by Otago Trail at Newcastle, and by Seeyouatmidnight by Carlisle.

He is clearly very good under certain conditions, but imo, he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as a horse like Denman (who also won a Lexus with his head in his chest), let alone get a higher RPR.
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He needs to dominate on soft ground/flat track. I don't see any reason to bring the other races up - either the tactics were poor, he wasn't fully fit or it was Aintree so who gives a ****.
 
Euronymous said:
He needs to dominate on soft ground/flat track. I don't see any reason to bring the other races up - either the tactics were poor, he wasn't fully fit or it was Aintree so who gives a ****.
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To be fair, Euro, you were the one that brought-up Denman's record away from Chelts and Newbury. I was just offering a comparison.

The only place BdM thrives is Haydock. He is a one-trick pony, and will be mullered in the King George....convinced of that.
 
For Gawds sake he's been rated 5lbs higher than native River who kicked him out the park and finished 3rd in the Gold Cup...........complete and utter nonsense. The same nonsense we went through last year when a certain member.
Told us he'd win the Gold Cup
If he goes to the King George I'll place lay him till the cows come home
 
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