2018 Gold Cuppin'

Great performance by Waiting Patiently but I reckon they’ll skip the festival with him. He wouldn’t be the first winner of this race to disappoint at Cheltenham anyway


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Frankel said:
You'll change your mind me thinks.
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I don't think so but I reserve the right to do so :lol:

Seriously, though, they went ridiculously fast early. How far clear did Speredek go last time out against G1 opposition at Sandown over two miles? He couldn't get to the front here until after about a mile (I'll check the video later).

Frodon and Cue Card went with the pace. Top Notch threatened to go with it but fortunately fluffed the first fence, sobering him up, and Jacob managed to get him under restraint. Frost was next to realise they were going too fast and managed to get Frodon to ease off a bit but by then the damage was already done. Frodon did well to get back into a good position late in the day. I think Brennan was wrong to keep chasing the pace and he did amazingly well still to be there at the end. If there is one horse to take from the race I'd suggest it's him but the race itself might leave its mark.

Meanwhile the winner was anchored out the back. Hughes must have been thinking Christmas had come very early when he saw how fast they were going. Top Notch hit nearly every fence on the way round, which is so unlike him. They weren't shuddering mistakes but the cumulative effect would have been significant. I'm not suggesting they cost him the race as we won't know that unless he comes out and beats Waiting Patiently next time they meet.

But WP was the only runner for whom everything went right.

I really don't have anything against the horse. I recognised early in the season how highly thought of he must be. But I'm not going to kid myself that this form can be taken literally based on everything else running its race.

All the above is based on my seeing the race only once, as it unfolded. I'll want to watch it a few times more to see if I change my mind.
 
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Ardross said:
It was a Grade 1 they were at level weights.

I wonder if they will skip the GC and go for the Ryanair with Cue Card.
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Very hard to resist when you are so close to the horse those rose colored glasses have you thinking all sorts of things.........I hope they give it another go he deserves his chance and they'd surely be too quick for him these days in the Ryanair?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think so but I reserve the right to do so :lol:

Seriously, though, they went ridiculously fast early. How far clear did Speredek go last time out against G1 opposition at Sandown over two miles? He couldn't get to the front here until after about a mile (I'll check the video later).

Frodon and Cue Card went with the pace. Top Notch threatened to go with it but fortunately fluffed the first fence, sobering him up, and Jacob managed to get him under restraint. Frost was next to realise they were going too fast and managed to get Frodon to ease off a bit but by then the damage was already done. Frodon did well to get back into a good position late in the day. I think Brennan was wrong to keep chasing the pace and he did amazingly well still to be there at the end. If there is one horse to take from the race I'd suggest it's him but the race itself might leave its mark.

Meanwhile the winner was anchored out the back. Hughes must have been thinking Christmas had come very early when he saw how fast they were going. Top Notch hit nearly every fence on the way round, which is so unlike him. They weren't shuddering mistakes but the cumulative effect would have been significant. I'm not suggesting they cost him the race as we won't know that unless he comes out and beats Waiting Patiently next time they meet.

But WP was the only runner for whom everything went right.

I really don't have anything against the horse. I recognised early in the season how highly thought of he must be. But I'm not going to kid myself that this form can be taken literally based on everything else running its race.

All the above is based on my seeing the race only once, as it unfolded. I'll want to watch it a few times more to see if I change my mind.
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Cue Card the horse to take out of the race? You’re having a laugh, DO.

Waiting Patiently won that race fair-and-square.

This is Cue Card’s minimum trip these days, and he therefore wanted/needed to go hard at it from the off. If the race was run to suit any horse, it was Cue Card, who got a ride from Brennan that absolutely maximised his chances of winning......and he was still comfortably beaten by a horse who effectively cantered all over him, and who would have won even further if the pace had been slacker, because he has a turn-of-foot that Cue Card no longer possesses.

The only horse to take out of the race is the winner. Suggesting otherwise is pure sentimentality.
 
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No, I've never been sentimental about Cue Card. I've rarely backed him.

I'm just saying what I'm seeing.

I will be very interested to see if Simon Rowlands does a sectional debrief on today's racing (don't think he will) as I'd expect to see a closing sectional somewhere in the low 90% range.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think so but I reserve the right to do so :lol:

Seriously, though, they went ridiculously fast early. How far clear did Speredek go last time out against G1 opposition at Sandown over two miles? He couldn't get to the front here until after about a mile (I'll check the video later).

Frodon and Cue Card went with the pace. Top Notch threatened to go with it but fortunately fluffed the first fence, sobering him up, and Jacob managed to get him under restraint. Frost was next to realise they were going too fast and managed to get Frodon to ease off a bit but by then the damage was already done. Frodon did well to get back into a good position late in the day. I think Brennan was wrong to keep chasing the pace and he did amazingly well still to be there at the end. If there is one horse to take from the race I'd suggest it's him but the race itself might leave its mark.

Meanwhile the winner was anchored out the back. Hughes must have been thinking Christmas had come very early when he saw how fast they were going. Top Notch hit nearly every fence on the way round, which is so unlike him. They weren't shuddering mistakes but the cumulative effect would have been significant. I'm not suggesting they cost him the race as we won't know that unless he comes out and beats Waiting Patiently next time they meet.

But WP was the only runner for whom everything went right.

I really don't have anything against the horse. I recognised early in the season how highly thought of he must be. But I'm not going to kid myself that this form can be taken literally based on everything else running its race.

All the above is based on my seeing the race only once, as it unfolded. I'll want to watch it a few times more to see if I change my mind.
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The assumption is to think one ridden off the pace off a decent clip has picked up the pieces. This is not the case in this instance. He has done it easily and was in front soon enough.

Fantastic run from Cue Card and Paddy gave him a decent ride.
 
Brennan looked pretty desolate down the horse walk, down which CC received a tremendous reception. Didn't do a lot wrong really. Fabulous run by the old man of the field.
 
I get the impression that has been Waiting Pariently’s primary target all season. Big pot, likely soft ground and ideal trip. Anything else from here will be a bonus. I can see him struggling to make up the ground from out the back in a Ryanair with UDS as the hare on good to soft.

Top Notch i’d give another chance. Can’t remember who said Coney Island had been found out but that’s just nonsense. We know how good he is from his novice chase season. He just got taken off his feet today as I predicted he would. Another year and 3 miles should see him as a big player at grade 1 level. The trainer is no fool.


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OK, I still want to look at the race again but here are the results of a quick time comparison exercise with the two earlier chases over 3m, the Reynoldstown won by Black Corton and the £100k handicap won by Regal Encore:

For the two earlier races I timed them from jumping the first fence of the race to the last in the home straight. The camera angle switched preventing me from taking a time at the winning post on the first circuit.


Black Corton - 164sec
Tenor Nivernais - 157sec

I can't do decimal points on-screen so there is a margin of error but 7 seconds is at least 26 lengths. So Tenor Nivernais was all of that in front of Black Corton at that point. The chances are he was going too fast and BC was getting a soft lead.

From the last fence on the first circuit to the winning post:

Black Corton - 208sec
Regal Encore* - 209sec

So Black Corton pulled back nearly four lengths overall through that stage but Regal Encore beat him by six seconds overall.

Comparing these two races with the big race, timing it from the first fence in the shorter race to the last in the home straight:

Black Corton - 117 sec
Tenor Nivernais - 113 sec
Leader in Betfair - 108 sec

Those are very big margins.

From the last fence on the first circuit to the winning post:

Black Corton - 208sec
Regal Encore* - 209sec
Leader in Betfair - 208sec


From six out to the line:

Black Corton - 86 sec
Regal Encore* - 89 sec
Cue Card - 89.5s
Waiting Patiently - 88 sec

* this is the time taken for the leader at these stages. Black Corton was in front, RE & WP came from a little further back.

I'll hopefully get the time during the week to check out Regal Encore and WP individually. But clearly Cue Card was in reverse gear from five out.

I've edited the above times after checking.

It looks like the times are confirming what the naked eye saw, namely that Frost got a breather into BC from 8 out to six out and really got the horse running from three out, covering that last section in 54s. Regal Encore took a little under 55s and Waiting Patiently took 57s, so Waiting Patiently was slowing down more than the winners of the other two races both run over 3f further.

The pace was clearly over-fast in WP's race and he has benefited from a hold-up ride.

I don't know how to calculate mark-ups and I suspect all the big race finishers will be worth mark-ups of varying amounts. Black Corton was maybe given the most efficient ride and if he is the guide to the times then Waiting Patiently probably comes at 157 before his mark-up, but I'll take a closer look again during the week once I've got my favoured hard copy of the form to hand.
 
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For all that I thought it was an impressive outing from WP today, I remarked to a mate straight after the race, that I wasn’t entirely certain that the result would have a major impact on the Ryanair, which looks a really trappy affair this year.
 
TheBear said:
I get the impression that has been Waiting Pariently’s primary target all season. Big pot, likely soft ground and ideal trip. Anything else from here will be a bonus. I can see him struggling to make up the ground from out the back in a Ryanair with UDS as the hare on good to soft.

Top Notch i’d give another chance. Can’t remember who said Coney Island had been found out but that’s just nonsense. We know how good he is from his novice chase season. He just got taken off his feet today as I predicted he would. Another year and 3 miles should see him as a big player at grade 1 level. The trainer is no fool.


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Twas me who said Coney Island had been found out. Far from being nonsense ..being 12/1 for this year's gold cup was nonsense. Horse gets exposed to a proper gallop yup took off his feet and the other thing it does is put pressure on jumping and his jumping has fell apart. I'm the biggest Top Notch fan there is but someone said that's the worst he's jumped ...thats not coincidence. When a horse is took out of its comfort zone that's when it's most likely to make mistakes.

Found out !
 
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I agree his price for this years Gold Cup was way too short but he was always going to be vulnerable at 2 and a half miles to the speed merchants. I still have him marked as a horse with massive potential and certainly wouldn’t be using today as a reason to write him off.


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Yeah and I suppose I'm only so harsh on his efforts today as I like to take on any hype horses and a 12/1 gold cup quote on the back of a 3 runner graduation chase was exactly that. Not the horses fault mind and was certainly worth a shot today to find out whether he could cut it. Maybe your right and he needs another season or just a different type of test to what he faced today.

Still gutted about Top Notch myself trying to make some sort of excuse for him but not coming up with much in truth.
 
Danny said:
Still gutted about Top Notch myself trying to make some sort of excuse for him but not coming up with much in truth.
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It appeared to me that Jacob wasn't as chill about letting the pace setters get on with it as Hughes. He wanted to be closer and the horse just didn't jump as well as he normally does and that's his chief attribute, his economy over fences. This was missing today but I'm confident he'll get it back.
 
Reagrding Waiting Patiently and his chances in the Ryanair based on the likely ground at the festival. His 2 wins prior to yesterday were both on G/S ground. If it's proper good ground at the festival, then perhaps it's a question he needs to answer, but I don't believe it means he can't win.

He's never run at Cheltenham before, and how he handles the track may be a bigger question to answer.

One thing that is Indisputable imo, is that he is clearly the best horse from yesterdays field.

I also think it's 50/50 if the ground at festival will be good or G/S.

It's no surprise to me that he is now a general 3/1 joint fav with UDS for the Ryanair and I'll certainly be keeping the Faith with WP come the festival.
 
I appreciate this is entirely a different set of circumstances but I’m stung by backing Empire Of Dirt in last years Ryanair. He was dropped out the back and never made the ground up. Having backed WP yesterday I was watching him closely and became concerned early on that his jumping was being put under pressure. The pace eventually slackened slightly probably due to the ground and he was classy enough to close the gap.

I’d just be concerned UDS is not going to give him that opportunity and yet I’ve long held the belief UDS is a vulnerable favourite. WP should be the one I was looking for but now find myself finding reasons why he won’t win. All very confusing!


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I didn’t see a single thing wrong with WP’s jumping myself, TheBear. He is low and fast and doesn’t leave much margin for error, but he jumped them absolutely fine yesterday, on my viewing (and he was the only horse in the race I was watching).
 
Empire of dirt was in the wrong race! Clearly should have been in the GC, as is often the case with Gigi horses, because they have so many.

I know EOD won over 2m4 previous season in a H'Cap, but that's a different story. And R2R won same H'Cap over 2m4 but he rightly being aimed at golf cup this year.

I always feared for EOD last year in getting caught out for pace, I do not hold the same fears for WP, who has pace in abundance imo and also possesses that gear change or turn of foot needed to go past horses towards the end of his races.
 
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