2018 Gold Cuppin'

Is it harsh?

American isn’t as good as Native River, and he’s not as good as a few others either. He hasn’t actually achieved very-much outside of novice company, and his record in big-fields is poor.

I can’t have him at all.
 
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I dont know if the opinion is harsh Grass but in fairness to him considering he pulled up in the Hennessy his run in the Cotswolds was a decent effort. He travelled very well for a long way before tiring late on. You know the horse stays so you'd have to presume it was a fitness issue.

Whether his form is good enough is completely another matter but as someone suggested above I'd always be inclined to have a crack at the cup rather than put him in a handicap off a big weight.
 
Horse is a stayer wheras a few will hate the ground if it's heavy so he is entitled to have a crack if he is 100% sound but he's had more breaks than Jonjo has broken bones due to physical issues...........to me that is the worry..lot worse than him run in Gold Cups
 
I invisage this Gold Cup being almost a carbon copy of the Tied Cottage Alverton year when two horses went miles clear of the rest.

Only this time unlike Tied Cottage Native River won't be falling at the last and will outstay the Henderson superstar to the line.

You have 2 horses here, one who has shown the Gold Cup holds no fears, will relish any cut in the ground and looks as if he, as you would expect, has improved.

On the other hand you have a RSA winner a race that very seldom produces Gold Cup winner 6 in 70 years and a winner of one of the poorest King George's in history by a length from a horse who is thought nowhere near good enough for this.

That said he is such a charachter there's an excuse been put forward for his poor KG performance in that they say he idled in front (takes lotta bloody idling for Double Shuffle to get close)

His RSA win was spectacular weird even..........to stop dead and get going again?? unreal but that does not make him a good thing it's as much a minus as a plus.

Obviously a lot of people agree with me or Might Bite would be odds on like Kauto Star was.....he's not you are getting 7/2 and with good reason.

I don't mind at this stage as I have them both in accies and in one it might not matter to me which one wins but Might Bite a certainty? he might win but a good thing.......no way!!!
 
Thr RSA winner has gone on to win the Gold Cup twice in the last 6 years, which puts a rather different slant on your use of the statistics.

Beyond the usual hyperbole, no-one is saying Might Bite is a certainty, or that he should be odds-on. But he has a MUCH better form chance than your post above makes out.

Best of luck for the week ahead.
 
Might Bite is huge for me this week and up until the deluge I've been unshakable that he'll win despite the doubters. I'd be okay with him on soft, but on heavy ground the Gold Cup will be won by a dour stayer. If I still have multiples running on to him on Friday I'll be cashing or trading out.

Our Duke, Native River, and Definitely Red are clearly advantage by this weather. I have an antepost on the former and I'd be looking to add in the other two depending on prices.
 
I think there was much to like about Definitly Red's Cotswold win; seems to have been slightly underrated. He looks good for place, at least.
 
With Sizing John out i started piling on to Might Bite, have him in a £100 double with Altior as well (Waiting Patiently was the other horse I wanted to back but such is life). I don't think the ground will matter and Might Bite will show what a class animal he is. Admirable as Native River is, I think they'd need to go 5 miles for him to catch MB.

Good luck everyone.
 
Might Bite will win - he’ll just win less emphatically, the softer the ground is.

FWIW, going on a visual interpretation, the ground looks to be riding a lot better than a ‘Heavy’ going description would suggest - though the race tmes might repudiate that view.
 
Grasshopper said:
FWIW, going on a visual interpretation, the ground looks to be riding a lot better than a ‘Heavy’ going description would suggest - though the race tmes might repudiate that view.
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That's what I thought. Times are definitely saying soft so the turf has clearly been well husbanded.
 
Frankel said:
You finally seen the light....
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That race was run at a crawl in Ireland and turned into a sprint.

Davey never really gave it his usual power house ride and waited until after the last not wanting to beat his fella up before Cheltenham.

Everybody and their uncle knew that and it was even said in a preview I watched
"Davey had one eye on Cheltenham" was one remark.

I don't think it can be considered a boost at all... just tell us what we already know and is not an opinion changer for me
 
Tanlic said:
That race was run at a crawl in Ireland and turned into a sprint.

Davey never really gave it his usual power house ride and waited until after the last not wanting to beat his fella up before Cheltenham.

Everybody and their uncle knew that and it was even said in a preview I watched
"Davey had one eye on Cheltenham" was one remark.

I don't think it can be considered a boost at all... just tell us what we already know and is not an opinion changer for me
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You're not telling me anything I don't already know.
 
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