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2021 Oaks

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
27,976
I don't often get involved early in this race so it was unusual for me to take Santa Barbara back in January in the ante-post yankee I mentioned elsewhere.

To be honest, I was pretty much backing her blind. I wanted the other three combined and had a quick look at the Oaks betting.

I had never even heard of Santa Barbara and a quick check of her form - an easy win in a modest enough mile maiden - didn't seem anything special so I assumed there must have been some serious rumours emanating from Ballydoyle. I basically decided to follow whatever rumours or money were behind the price for the sake of adding a fourth horse for the yankee. No more, no less.

I've since had a wee pop at Michael Stoute's Noon Star (33/1), again just following Timeform (who recommend her and Roger Varian's Teona (16/1)).
 
Desert Orchid said:
I take it you've heard something, Slim?

I see she runs today. Backing her now - surely she should be a lot longer than 12s for the Oaks anyway - assumes a runaway win today, which is far from guaranteed (unless, as I say, you've heard something). If she doesn't win she would go longer.

Although she's out of Peeping Fawn, there's no guarantee that she'll stay either, given her dosage:

DP = 4-3-9-2-0 (18) DI = 1.77 CD = 0.50
Click to expand...
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've since had a wee pop at Michael Stoute's Noon Star (33/1)
Click to expand...

I had no idea this had run yesterday.

Wetherby??

Still, she must have done it nicely enough to drop to 14s for the Oaks. I also have her in an ew double with Cleveland (25/1) in the Derby. Now, if he could come out and run with real promise in the Dante...
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had no idea this had run yesterday.

Wetherby??

Still, she must have done it nicely enough to drop to 14s for the Oaks. I also have her in an ew double with Cleveland (25/1) in the Derby. Now, if he could come out and run with real promise in the Dante...
Click to expand...

She was as impressive as Willow was unimpressive.
 
Slim said:
She was as impressive as Willow was unimpressive.
Click to expand...

Just watched the replay.

Hard to know what she achieved but lots of big operations represented in the race: Gosden (x2), Godolphin (x2), another Stoute, Varian (x2), Shadwell (x2). Some of them very huge prices, though, so maybe pretty modest form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just watched the replay.

Hard to know what she achieved but lots of big operations represented in the race: Gosden (x2), Godolphin (x2), another Stoute, Varian (x2), Shadwell (x2). Some of them very huge prices, though, so maybe pretty modest form.
Click to expand...

I thought Franklet had a nice introductory run. If Havlin had been riding he might have picked up another 21 days in the cooler :)
 
On dosage, there has to be a chance Mother Earth will stay although St Aidan seems to doubt it:

[FONT=&quot]DP = 2-4-8-5-1 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.05

Much more certain, I reckon is Santa Barbara:

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]DP = 3-2-15-8-0 (28) DI = 0.81 CD = 0.00

and I'd hold high hopes that the track won't be a problem given her sire won the Derby. Guineas are often the best trials for Epsom, which is another plus.

I can't see anything else from today's race being a threat although Saffron Beach has prospects:

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]DP = 0-6-3-5-0 (14) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.07

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]We'll need to see what the other trials throw up.

I'm surprised Santa B didn't shorten after today.


[/FONT]
 
I've had a pop at Dubai Fountain 33/1 in anticipation of a comfortable win in Chester's Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday.

She has a 12lb margin on ORs, 13lbs on RPRs and her current OR 110 would not be far off a placing in an average renewal. If she can improve 7lbs into this season she'd be pretty much guaranteed to place and possibly win.

She wasn't beaten at all far in the Fillies' Mile (in amongst some Guineas runners, including Mother Earth) and is indeed entitled to improve significantly for stepping up in trip (Dosage reads: DP = 3-6-9-10-0 (28) DI = 0.93 CD = 0.07)

While she's entitled to win comfortably on Wednesday - and 7/2 strikes me as incredible value - if she does she'll probably more than halve in price so I want her onside at long odds.

In fact, as things stand, only three fillies are ahead of her on RPRs:

Pretty Gorgeous 114 - unlikely to stay
Indigo Girl 112 - will stay
Shale 112 - not guaranteed to stay

Her current RPR (111) is the same as the one Mother Earth achieved yesterday, which puts things into some kind of context.

(Will copy to the Longshot Thread.)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've had a pop at Dubai Fountain 33/1 in anticipation of a comfortable win in Chester's Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday.

She has a 12lb margin on ORs, 13lbs on RPRs and her current OR 110 would not be far off a placing in an average renewal. If she can improve 7lbs into this season she'd be pretty much guaranteed to place and possibly win.

She wasn't beaten at all far in the Fillies' Mile (in amongst some Guineas runners, including Mother Earth) and is indeed entitled to improve significantly for stepping up in trip (Dosage reads: DP = 3-6-9-10-0 (28) DI = 0.93 CD = 0.07)

While she's entitled to win comfortably on Wednesday - and 7/2 strikes me as incredible value - if she does she'll probably more than halve in price so I want her onside at long odds.

In fact, as things stand, only three fillies are ahead of her on RPRs:

Pretty Gorgeous 114 - unlikely to stay
Indigo Girl 112 - will stay
Shale 112 - not guaranteed to stay

Her current RPR (111) is the same as the one Mother Earth achieved yesterday, which puts things into some kind of context.
Click to expand...

(My emphasis)

The market has gone a long way to correcting itself. Dubai Fortune is now 15/8 clear favourite and even that might be quite generous. Already 11/8 in a place or two.
 
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La Jaconde is not one to write off tomorrow. Ryan Moore rides Nicest and they put her in 14/1. So you get Oisin Murphy and the price boost because Moore rejects her. She clearly needs the step up.in trip and ground will be ok. She has a better chance than a few at single figures in the race.
 
Slim said:
La Jaconde is not one to write off tomorrow. Ryan Moore rides Nicest and they put her in 14/1. So you get Oisin Murphy and the price boost because Moore rejects her. She clearly needs the step up.in trip and ground will be ok. She has a better chance than a few at single figures in the race.
Click to expand...

Yes, but the 14s have gone. Now 10s tops.

The Stack runner is also over-priced:

[TABLE="width: 638"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[TD]CBP
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dubai Fountain
[/TD]
[TD]1,2
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Johnston
[/TD]
[TD]Franny Norton
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]2/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ahandfulofsummers
[/TD]
[TD]1,2,3
[/TD]
[TD]J A Stack
[/TD]
[TD]William Buick
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Zeyaadah
[/TD]
[TD]1,2
[/TD]
[TD]Roger Varian
[/TD]
[TD]Jim Crowley
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]11/4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] La Joconde
[/TD]
[TD]1,2,3
[/TD]
[TD]A P O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]Oisin Murphy
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Nicest
[/TD]
[TD]1,2,3
[/TD]
[TD]Donnacha O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Moore
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]7/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Darlectable You
[/TD]
[TD]1,2
[/TD]
[TD]J&T Gosden
[/TD]
[TD]Frankie Dettori
[/TD]
[TD]-
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]9/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Quenelle D'Or
[/TD]
[TD]1,2
[/TD]
[TD]Hugo Palmer
[/TD]
[TD]James Doyle
[/TD]
[TD]80
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

* - Group level entries
CBP – Current best price (8.30am)
 
I've had a pop at Dubai Fountain 33/1 in anticipation of a comfortable win in Chester's Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday.

...

While she's entitled to win comfortably on Wednesday - and 7/2 strikes me as incredible value - if she does she'll probably more than halve in price so I want her onside at long odds.
Click to expand...

Chuffed on both counts.

If only I could stick to those kinds of bets!
 
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I'll reserve judgment myself until I've had time to dig in a bit.

First impression was that the Gosden/Shadwell filly, who was something like 9/4f earlier in the week, would have been hailed an impressive winner, if DF wasn't there, from two Coolmores and her price would be as it was straight after the race, ie about 8/1.

I wouldn't put it past Johnston to have left plenty to work on with the winner but I've always got the option of taking a profit now or laying off the stake for a no-risk interest.
 
Teona - what am I missing? Very short for the Musidora. Is she working to One Ruler levels?
 
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I've noticed the price contracting gradually for some time.

Might be working well. Might be because it's one of Timeform's ante-post selections (the other is Noon Star). Might be that other horses/fillies from the stable (Varian) are running well and people are putting two and two together.

Edit - just noticed re-reading through the thread that Zeyaadah isn't trained by Gosden but by Varian. Maybe Teona is working the better.

Re-edit - Noon Star (Kingscote) and Teona (Atzeni) both jocked up in the Musidora.
 
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I've done Noon Star for York. Form franked yesterday by Sherbert Lemon and although she turned it round with Loving Dream that filly isn't bred to stay more than 10f.
 
Latest dec stage, 19 left:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/17/epsom/2021-06-04/780497/

I've had another ante-post pop at a longer-priced entry: Donnacha O'Brien's Shale 25/1 - her 2yo rating is in the same ball park as that of Dubai Fountain who is now in single figures in places following her anticipated comeback win at York. I imagine people will doubt Shale's stamina as she's a daughter of a 1000 Guineas winner in Homecoming Queen (does that make me a daydream believer?) and actually reappeared over 7f but she's by Galileo and her dosage figures suggest the trip could be well within her compass, in which case she looks a decent back-up for Coolmore.

DP = 4-2-18-12-0 (36) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.06

Of course, there has to be a fair chance she won't run but the fact that she's still there after the latest forfeit stage must mean they're still thinking about it. I reckon, a wee bit not unlike One Ruler in the Derby, if she turns up she won't be anywhere near 25/1.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Latest dec stage, 19 left:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/17/epsom/2021-06-04/780497/

I've had another ante-post pop at a longer-priced entry: Donnacha O'Brien's Shale 25/1 - her 2yo rating is in the same ballpark as that of Dubai Fountain who is now in single figures in places following her anticipated comeback win at York. I imagine people will doubt Shale's stamina as she's a daughter of a 1000 Guineas winner in Homecoming Queen (does that make me a daydream believer?) and actually reappeared over 7f but she's by Galileo and her dosage figures suggest the trip could be well within her compass, in which case she looks a decent back-up for Coolmore.

[FONT=&]DP = 4-2-18-12-0 (36) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.06[/FONT]
Click to expand...

Her Dosage is more or less the same as Ace Aussie...different numbers but the tail line is sprint orientated....
Her Dam, Homecoming Queen stole the 1,000 guineas as a pacemaker, the only race she won over a mile....
Shale also has 3 other siblings, all by Galileo and none of them got further than a 1m1f.

Edit...
Out of the 22 Holy Roman Emperor mares crossed with Galileo, only one, Johannes Vermeer got 1m2f but failed to stay over further. His Dam, Inca Princess was a sprinter but Her Dam, Miletrian, won the Parkhill, hence the slight upward degree in stamina.

Shale is a miler. She's owned by the very same connections as Mother Earth.....she could well be on a par with her and they knew that ME would be contesting two top-class mile races in a short space of time, so they saved her, Shale, for the Irish 1,000....
 
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