2022 Arc Thread

Is that the same Mishriff you said had no chance of running here? :lol:
Keep dissing him; he might bite your arse someday soon.

ps: "We wouldn't be running him if we didn't think he couldn't finish first 3"
J Gosden, this week. Buick rides :)
 
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Looks like it might be heavy again. This is a disaster, I've built a solid position in the race and am staring at the possibility of a ******* German Group 2 horse winning it again. Fux sake.
 
I have a position on the panzer (tasso) and Mendocino to cover off such an eventuality haha. Backed tasso last year at 100/1 so couldn't let him go unbacked this year.
 
Euronymous said:
Looks like it might be heavy again. This is a disaster, I've built a solid position in the race and am staring at the possibility of a ******* German Group 2 horse winning it again. Fux sake.
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Sympathize Euro. Hope you're wrong about the ground,though.
 
Euronymous said:
Looks like it might be heavy again. This is a disaster, I've built a solid position in the race and am staring at the possibility of a ******* German Group 2 horse winning it again. Fux sake.
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I’m sure I saw something yesterday saying they’ve watered as well as a wet forecast. FFS


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FWIW:

Clerk of the course Charles de Cordon said on Monday morning that with five millimetres of rain falling over the weekend, conditions were good to soft (3.4) on the penetrometer, with a Going Stick reading of 8.2.

The rail will be out at 17 metres on Saturday for the first day of the meeting, preserving a fresh strip of ground, and set back on Sunday to its innermost line.

There will be a five-metre cutaway in operation for the last 50 metres, which equates to just over two furlongs up the home straight, designed to ease congestion. This will also offer an additional five metres of fresh ground.

De Cordon said: “The forecast today is for between 8mm and 10mm and there is an 80 per cent chance that will happen. Tomorrow (Tuesday) there is a 35 per cent chance that between 2mm and 4mm of rain will fall.

“On Friday, a further 2-5mm of rain could come, with a 50 per cent chance of that happening.

“The target is to have good to soft or soft ground. No watering is planned as it stands.

“If there was no rain until Wednesday, then we would consider watering the track, but not a lot, because the main target is to have the ground good to soft.”

Sporting life interview.
 
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Just as well Baaeed's connections decided to skip this. The ground may even end up heavy.

Problem is there's soft ground and there soft ground so working out who will be suited to it and who wont is totall guess work.

Vadeni and last years winner will be most likely to benefit but whos to say others won't as 5 out of 6 in the betting have won or ran well on soft before.
 
To think I started this thread suggesting Alenquer could be the one. Then he ran like he lost a leg both his last two starts.

I will have to have a cheeky saver on him just in case he out runs those odds.

Alpinista my main bet, with savers on Do Duece and Alenquer.

I would be happy for Luxembourg if he can deliver the goods. The same goes for Tanlics fancy Westover. He's a very nice horse who after what happend in the derby, well you couldn't begrudge him were he to go close to winning.
 
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Euronymous said:
He ran to form at Leopardstown - how he started shorter than Onesto is beyond me.
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I'm not sure.

He was ultra consistent as a two and three year old, when only finishing out the first three once in seven starts in his first two seasons in training. That unplaced effort coming in this race last year.

His last few runs tell the real story though. He has either won or been tailed off. I still think 80/1 or thereabouts five places is worth a saver on ground he might like.

If he puts in another stinker they have two options. Have him gelded or retire him.
 
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Clerk of the course is predicting very soft ground if the forecast is correct

Torquator Tasso and Westover stand out for me, the former is track, trip and ground proven and Westover has always looked as if he wants further than 1m 4f, he's by Frankel as well so soft ground will suit

Sealiway and Alenquer could sneak into the first 4 or 5 at prices, both will relish the ground as well
 
It's a smashing race. I hope the ground or tactical roughness doesn't spoil it.

Brief thoughts:

TT - did me a right turn last year but haven't backed it yet. Might do so to cover all other bets. Top rated.
Titleholder - big RPR and I rate Japanese horses but maybe the price has gone.
Vad - hugely respected but will he stay?
Mishriff - ditto
Alpinista - on at 20s and happy with that possie. Second-top rated but open to further improvement.
Westover - also hugely respect but I can't back 'em all.
Luxembourg - on at 20s so happy with that. If he improves for the trip could be hard to beat.
Grand Glory - on at 80s, late-maturing soft-ground mare. Place hopes.
Onesto - as per Vad and Mish.
Sealiway - the brother alerted me to 66/1 a coupla weeks back. I forgot. Price gone. Bastert will probly win (baith).
Alenquer - can't see it.
Deep Bond - Japanese so respected but can't back it.
Broome - can't see it.
Mostahdaf - shrewd pick for them that took the long odds. Kempton form reads well but it's AW from.
Mare Australis - can't see it but he was only 5/1 for the GPdSC.
Stay Foolish - not checked it.
Bubble Gift - on at 66/1. Stick rather than twist.
Do Deuce - another Japanese I've ignored, probably to my cost.
Mendocino - thought I'd dug up a 100/1 shot with this but it's only 25s. Probably its price.
Al Hakeem - can't see it.

1. Alpinista
2. T Tasso
3. Lux
4. Westover
 
MENDOCINO is a nice ew price considering he was a close 2nd to Alpinista and beat TT.

So my 3 are AL HAKEEM
TITLEHOLDER
MENDOCINO
 
1. Westover
1. Onesto
3. Alpinista
4 Vadeni

At the last minute I am stuck between 2 and can't separate them.

Onest caught my eye in the Irish Champion Stakes. He was traveling all over Luxembourg until he got caught a little bit flat footed
while the winner just found a bit more ear the finish.

Over the longer trip Onesto might have that bit more time to get going and could come out on top but as we say at Epsom westover can really quicken
so it could ebd up a ding dong battle between them.

I doubt very much if Alpanista has the class for this his win over Tuesday doesn't look anywhere near good enough to me.

Vadeni will run a solid race but his bubble was burst in Ireland but I expect him to be placed.

Luxembourg I can't have either he's one of the lesser lights that have come out of AOB's yard over the years and could bea bit overrrated,

He for me is a place lay 3 places.

However it's all guess work with nothing outstanding and the only thing I am sure about is that monkey of my pal Reets, Mishriff, won't be sighted
and the Baaeed rating will be under even more scrutiny:lol:
 
Tanlic said:
1. Westover

However it's all guess work with nothing outstanding and the only thing I am sure about is that monkey of my pal Reets, Mishriff, won't be sighted
and the Baaeed rating will be under even more scrutiny:lol:
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Think you underrate both horses,Fist.
Doubt Mishriff wil run on the forecast ground, and will probably wait for the BC, but both wii show how wrong you are, in the fulness of time.
 
There's a preponderance of 3yo among the market leaders, yet only 3 have prevailed in the past 10 years - Treve, Golden Horn and Enable - all outstanding horses.
Luxembourg might be up to that standard, I'm not convinced so think I'll swerve the race altogether.
 
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