2022 Arc Thread

Not only ratings, but the market as well. Presumably because the betting public don’t know much about foreigners so tend to leave them alone. Whether that “value” is worth having is a different question, of course :)
 
Horses can bounce back to their best after being roughed off and brought back in for a specific race. One such animal is Westover who's Epsom and Irish Derby form
is good enough to ne thinking this will be right up his street.

The power in the finish he showed at Epsom if repeated is exactly what you need at Lonchamp

We don't have a Mill Reef or a Sea The Stars thats going to be waitied with then pounce leaving everything in it's wake.

So this race could go to the staying type that runs on when others have had enough
and a refreshed Westover for me fits the bill.
 
I like Adayar personally. He would handle some cut too and goes there fresher than last year.
 
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Fair play to forum member Hawk Wing who was giving good reviews to Luxembourg after his maiden in Ireland.

I think he backed him for the derby at double figure prices before Luxembourg picked up the injury.

I wonder if he took big prices for the arc.
 
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Re Adayar - maybe.......but they did that with Enable.....obviously not saying he’s in that class but he’s not bad! And he was a big horse last year who was possibly a little weak by the time he ran OK in it last year.
 
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jinnyj said:
Re Adayar - maybe.......but they did that with Enable.....
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True, but to be fair she wasn't the best horse on the day, a bad ride on Sea of Class almost handed her the race. I'd also sooner have a Gosden with a prep like that than an Appleby.
 
What never ceases to amaze me is a price collapse after a couple of RP hacks side with a horse. Adayar was 16s yesterday until a couple nominated him as the value. Single figures and challenging for second favourite now.

I’m not saying his place in the market is wrong but f*ck me, if it’s punters (unlikely) then if they really need an introduction to last year’s Derby winner’s chances then they should stop betting now and if it’s bookies (more likely) then either fire your compilers or grow a f**king pair.
 
Probably the people who oversee the compilers afraid of pressure from further up.

They have people who check all the media for mentions of races/horses and if one gets a prominent mention they cut it to avoid taking any blame for a potential loss.

They will also have a list of who/what has the most influence on the markets and adjust anything they mention.

As an aside, I've long believed that the influence of Pricewise is based on genuine information coming into the RP offices. It's the individual holding the title 'Pricewise' (currently and probably the longest-serving Tom Segal) interpreting the info, I think, that lends it its reputation.

For example, I think James Willoughby was the original. Now, I like Willoughby. He thinks differently. But he didn't last long as Pricewise after a good start. Maybe that was because he thinks differently. Then there was Mark Coton who was very successful and packed it in to become a premium-rate phone tipster. That venture seemed to bomb and he went back to the RP with his tail between his legs. Nothing much is heard from him now. I'm presuming he lost out on his 'sources' when he quite the RP.

Segal is very influential, as is Paul Kealy. Again, I'm presuming their strengths are in filtering the info coming in to the offices but I find my own selections tend to coincide more with Kealy than with any other 'tipster'.

The market is also very quick to react to Weaver and Blake, probably for good reason. They seem to get good information which they're prepared to pass on but only at the last minute. I presume they ask for permission to say they fancy something they've had information about if they mention it on the early programmes.

I also think the ITV team get good info coming in, enabling them to interview owners etc just before a race when the horse just happens to go on and win.

I recall going to Ayr one day with an ex-forumite from back in the C4 days. He had some kind of pass and the first person we met was the CoC. My companion asked straight out if there was anything we should pay attention to and two horses were mentioned, neither favourite for their respective race, and both won so clearly information had been shared.

I had a day at Hamilton with the same person and the same thing happened only it was just the one horse on that occasion.

Sorry for the ramble but it's early and I'm just killing time between my breakfast fruit and Weetabix...
 
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Not sure Adayar's tumbling price had anything to do with someone at the RP selecting it. This time of year the Arc market is usually quite mature but Baaeed being confirmed for Ascot meant it needed reforming in essence. Beyond Luxembourg everything else was 8/1+ so there was obvious scope for some shortening.
 
Euronymous said:
Not sure Adayar's tumbling price had anything to do with someone at the RP selecting it. This time of year the Arc market is usually quite mature but Baaeed being confirmed for Ascot meant it needed reforming in essence. Beyond Luxembourg everything else was 8/1+ so there was obvious scope for some shortening.
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I didn't necessarily mean to refer specifically to the RP in the case of Adayar. It was Wilsonl who mentioned that a couple of people (presumably of some kind of influence) had nominated it as 'value' and the price had collapsed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I didn't necessarily mean to refer specifically to the RP in the case of Adayar. It was Wilsonl who mentioned that a couple of people (presumably of some kind of influence) had nominated it as 'value' and the price had collapsed.
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Probably tipsters who do well in handicaps. I've never understood why punters who follow tipsters can't differentiate.
 
These TV pundits tipsters drive me nuts sometimes.

Especially if you have had a bet on one that they have given 1/2 dozen reasons why it can't win and sew doubt in your mind about your own judgement.

Most of the time I find they are talking bollocks but I do like listening to jason Weaver who tends to make more sense than most.

Also some American lady..no idea who she is but she knows her stuff.

Would I go all in because of what they say? Very doubtful
 
LUKE said:
Keep taking the double figure prices on Alpinista.
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The last time Luke was this sweet was Minella Indo for the Gold Cup, about six months before the Gold Cup.

I didn't listen then. I don't want to make the same mistake twice.
 
Wouldn't surprise to see Mishriff turn up here, rather than take on Baaeed again.
80/1 at the mo.
 
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Mishriff 200 on the machine.

The reasonable weather forecast brings Vademi and Titleholder into it. Sort of a small negative for Alpinista, a big negative for Westover and Tasso

Actually really looking forward to this now, I hate a heavy ground Arc.
 
reet hard said:
Wouldn't surprise to see Mishriff turn up here, rather than take on Baaeed again.
80/1 at the mo.
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No chance of going to the Arc mate.
The cost to send him in current form and more likely he could finish unplaced is a no no.
At least with taking on Baaeed there a chance of some prize money as the race will cut up badly.
 
Euronymous said:
Mishriff 200 on the machine.

The reasonable weather forecast brings Vademi and Titleholder into it. Sort of a small negative for Alpinista, a big negative for Westover and Tasso

Actually really looking forward to this now, I hate a heavy ground Arc.
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Didn't they say earlier this year that they reckoned Alpinista was better on better ground?
 
Her form does suggest that but her pedigree is boat city and she acts with dig. A proper soft ground Arc wouldn't be the negative for her that it would be for her main rivals - potentially Luxembourg, definitely Vademi and Titleholder.
 
I'd advice being very careful backing Alpanista. She gives me the impression of a filly who isn't quite top class and this will find her out big time.

True she has run up a nice sequence but this is 2 grades up IMO of anything she has tackled before.

I fully expext Adayar and Westover to bounce back to their very best and be involved in the finish.

I still thing the latter is the one they all have to beat as he packs the punch needed for this.
 
Watching Morris ride 2 yaks for Prescott around Chelmsford last night wouldn't fill you with confidence for Alpinista
 
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