2022 Grand National

I didn't bet in the race, but ASN ran below form (imo) and it had little to do with handicapping.
In last year's race, he appeared to stay the trip, but that was from the back of the field after being baulked early.
This year, in a stronger run race, he raced more prominently, vyed for the lead, and just plain, didn't see it out the same.
Arguably, the 13lb extra had some bearing, ANP performed 10.5l worse, (on ground the RP timed as 0.5spf quicker), but it's equally arguable that it was pace and stamina that was his undoing this year, imvho.
 
Slim said:
Tell me what the handicapper would have done had Noble Yeats not been in the race? The idea Any Second Now ran to his mark is just bollocks. He'd be rated 170 for beating the 3rd 20l. Michael O'Leary has a point.
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By 'running to his mark' I meant the mark I had for him on his best old form, which was some way better than his OR. As I said before the race, I felt there was a good chance something would prove better handicapped. It turned out that only one of those who completed and truly stayed, actually did prove better handicapped.

You've been truly unlucky that it happened to be a 7yo, a total trendfucker.
 
reet hard said:
I didn't bet in the race, but ASN ran below form (imo) and it had little to do with handicapping.
In last year's race, he appeared to stay the trip, but that was from the back of the field after being baulked early.
This year, in a stronger run race, he raced more prominently, vyed for the lead, and just plain, didn't see it out the same.
Arguably, the 13lb extra had some bearing, ANP performed 10.5l worse, (on ground the RP timed as 0.5spf quicker), but it's equally arguable that it was pace and stamina that was his undoing this year, imvho.
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At no stage did he try to lead. The biggest problem was he didn't jump well enough and needed to be ridden away from a lot of fences. Despite that he still lead after the last. Mark Walsh probably gave the horse the best losing ride ever in a National.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
All that studying, number-crunching, reasoning, typing, debating and Mrs O and Orchidette both back it (I got them 66s) because they're English teachers and are fans of the Irish poet. Made me look a right fanny.
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Cast a cold eye on life, on death, horseman, pass by
 
Any Second Now didn’t try to lead, as Slim says above. The one that did, and paid the price from 2 out, was Longhouse Poet IMO


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Slim said:
At no stage did he try to lead. The biggest problem was he didn't jump well enough and needed to be ridden away from a lot of fences. Despite that he still lead after the last. Mark Walsh probably gave the horse the best losing ride ever in a National.
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Even so, the race was run in an identical time to last year, on ground deemed to be good, as opposed to last year's g/s (RP) so, whatever way it's wrapped up, ASN's inefficiencies were still down to the ground and the pace.
 
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reet hard said:
Even so, the race was run in an identical time to last year, on ground deemed to be good, as opposed to last year's g/s (RP) so, whatever way it's wrapped up, ASN's inefficiencies were still down to the ground and the pace.
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When it's 20l back to the 3rd I just don't get this conclusion.
 
Slim said:
At no stage did he try to lead. The biggest problem was he didn't jump well enough and needed to be ridden away from a lot of fences. Despite that he still lead after the last. Mark Walsh probably gave the horse the best losing ride ever in a National.
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Agree entirely.

He was being ridden as such after the Canal Turn second time round I thought the bet was dead. Walsh kept plugging on him and somehow lead at the last.

Also, without soundbiting Ruby, tried to make a race winning move getting to the inside of the elbow but Whaley-Cohen had too much horse left.
 
I thought ASN got a brilliant tactical ride, never too far off the pace, never wide, delivered at just about the perfect time and pulled well clear of the third.

Unlucky to run into Noble Yeats on the day - as I say, a total trendbuster - but NY also lost ground at the start and did remarkably well to overcome it.

I've already backed it for next year at 20/1.
 
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Someone pre-race (think it was HdB) said that anything that beat Delta Work would win the race. I thought ASN would win and to beat Delta Work by 18 lengths should have surely been enough and mark a really top performance. You can never cater for something right out of the blue, though. If Noble Yeats hadn’t been there we’d have been cheering an outstanding performance - and it was.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I thought ASN got a brilliant tactical ride, never too far off the pace, never wide, delivered at just about the perfect time and pulled well clear of the third.

Unlucky to run into Noble Yeats on the day - as I say, a total trendbuster - but NY also lost ground at the start and did remarkably well to overcome it.

I've already backed it for next year at 20/1.
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I thought 20/1 looked very fair.
 
barjon said:
Someone pre-race (think it was HdB) said that anything that beat Delta Work would win the race. I thought ASN would win and to beat Delta Work by 18 lengths should have surely been enough and mark a really top performance. You can never cater for something right out of the blue, though. If Noble Yeats hadn’t been there we’d have been cheering an outstanding performance - and it was.
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Two outstanding equine performances and two outstanding human ones.

I just hope neither horse, especially ASN, ends up soured by the experience. It's a lot harder giving it everything and losing than giving it everything and winning.
 
barjon said:
Someone pre-race (think it was HdB) said that anything that beat Delta Work would win the race. I thought ASN would win and to beat Delta Work by 18 lengths should have surely been enough and mark a really top performance. You can never cater for something right out of the blue, though. If Noble Yeats hadn’t been there we’d have been cheering an outstanding performance - and it was.
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If!
Delta Work received virtually the same ride as ASN, and there are good grounds for saying that both jocks on 2nd & 3rd misjudged the strong pace.
 
Or they judged the pace perfectly well to beat all rivals, bar a better handicapped winner.

The pace analysis is a huge oversimplification. Had Noble Yeats beaten a held up second and third, then there may be a point.
 
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Sam made a very good point after the race.
He was wide early but it was crowded so went inside to get room.
Mark Walsh stayed out after his mishap last year on the inside and never got a clear run to get closer earlier so made up too much ground too quickly.
Emmet M sourced Noble Yeats from Donie Hassett and told him after his novice chase win that Aintree GN was his target as the fences were easier and the handicapper would give a novice chaser a nice racing weight !
How you factor for two clinically abnormal exams post race is beyond me , as was how Waley-Cohen bought him armed with this knowledge .
The Glorious Uncertainty of it all.
P.S. I have a great Donie Hassett story, or two not fit for printing.
See You in Punchestown.
 
Did anyone watch the virtual race. I watched it last night and if it had worked out like that I would have been happier.
I would have had 5th and 6th,mighty thunder and mount ida.
And Poker party was up with the pace and just about took it up when he fell at the 21st.
Snow leopardess won and Noble Yeats was last of the finishers.

Any second now was 2nd
Delta work was 3rd
 
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Outsider said:
How much weight does the horse have to carry with this 3lb allowance for the body armour and 3 lb for covid.
JP McManus said in an interview Minella times would be carrying 12.2.
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They covered this on The Morning Line- every horse was carrying 6lbs more than declared weight.
 
I think we saw something very special on Saturday -Emmet Mullins -what a man.Fourteen months after the horse won a bumper and six months after his first run over fences the horse wins a Grand National -outrageous stuff.The natural successor to Willie Mullins.
 
G-G said:
They covered this on The Morning Line- every horse was carrying 6lbs more than declared weight.
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What I don't understand about this is that these weights are "allowances" for the covid situation. I'd presumed if they are "allowances" they only applied in cases where the jockey was carrying around his/her normal minimum riding weight so that they weren't penalised for weighing out/in heavy.

Why would they choose to carry more than they needed to?
 
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