2024 Grand National
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Precipitation. Another stupid word that has become almost as annoying as WOKE....what's the chances of heavy rain this week? I Aintree in any danger? Meeting are dropping like flies at the moment
Desert Orchid
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True, but Galvin was fourth in the Gold Cup, earning an RPR just 3lbs lower than CR's. He gets 4lbs so wherever CR finishes a trained-to-the-minute Galvin should be right beside or even in front of him.
I believe Galvin was trained to win last year's National (but probably wouldn't have beaten CR) and has been trained again for it ever since.
I do have concerns about the going, though.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Way too unreliable for my liking Dessie. I backed him a couple of times but apart from that 2nd in the cross country he has been running very ordinary races.
Sure they can bounce back to form but I get the impression he's been around way to long to be hanging your hat on.
One that could give you a run for your money is Kitties Light.14/1 up 6lbs ,ore than he was when winning the Scottish Grand National but with only 10st 6lbs he loos well in against most of these.
Sure they can bounce back to form but I get the impression he's been around way to long to be hanging your hat on.
One that could give you a run for your money is Kitties Light.14/1 up 6lbs ,ore than he was when winning the Scottish Grand National but with only 10st 6lbs he loos well in against most of these.
Desert Orchid
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I do think he's been campaigned to look inconsistent.
These good staying novices tend to get one 'go' at the GC and when they fall short another long-term plan is put in place. He was off 166 last year and the pick of Davy Russell.
Desert Orchid
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Only four taken out at today's 5d decs.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Not even sold out this year
The question is are Willie and Elliot sporting enough to pull the ones out at the 48 hour stage or are they going to pull them out on the day amd deny others getting into the race ?
Desert Orchid
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This is a good point, Danny. I hadn't realised until reading it earlier this afternoon that there are no reserves this year. These guys are not going to pull anything out until after the final dec stage. We could end up with fewer than 30 runners.
That in itself could prompt a rethink ahead of the 2025 race.
We'll see soon enough but I don't expect any shenanigans given they won't want to reignite the restriction debate, won't want to tarnish a potential victory and Bartlett has already said his horses won't run if the ground isn't suitable (by Thursday the chances of Good to Soft are likely to be close to zero).
I'm going to ask something of the Corach Rambler Fans. I'm struggling to see as well as he won last year how he holds up the form with Noble Yeats. 14lb for 8 lengths and Noble Yeats didn't have the smoothest of trips last year. That's a lot and also considering that Noble Yeats is the younger of the two and has form on everything down to heavy I'd probably guess at this distance in soft ground you're probably looking at 0.5 lengths per pound. Even if that's not accurate its a very big ask to uphold that form I'd say the same for Vanillier if the ground dries out. I think with the recent history of Tiger Roll following up his win its sort of leading people down a path that its almost expected for Corach to follow up. Tiger Roll IMO was just a very special animal and probably robbed of the hatrick by covid normally you could say he's a once in a lifetime horse but I know there are plenty on here who were around for Red rum. He's a very likeable type is Corach and i'd be pleased as punch if he could repeat for his connections and it'd be an amazing achievement for Jockey and trainer but for me his price is bordering on the insane should be at least double figures and I for one will be amazed should he follow up.
The thing is if you're Bartlett haven't you got every right to see if the ground is suitable on the day. He's made a statement in the RP that unless the going starts with gd-sft then he won't run either. Personally i think that's boolocks as Outsider stated Stattler has some form on soft and Galvin finished 2nd to Delta work at the festival on soft. But if the trainer believes they are better on good ground and with the option of the scottish and the whitbread upcoming then surely he has the right to wait. If there are a couple of dry days before Saturday I dont think it'll be heavy at least and hopefully there won't be too many last minute defectors.
Totally agree with you Danny.
Noble yeats has 11s 11 lbs which is a lot but it should beat anything within 7 lb of him.imo
I don't thin there's any fear of such a thing.
These horses have to be travelled over, in advance, from Ireland. They're not going to do that in order to deliberately pull them out after they've arrived, at a cost of thousands per horse in declaration fees and travel costs. And if they declare them and then don't travel them, making it obvious that they never intended to run them, they'd be leaving themselves wide open to retribution by the BHA.
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Pure paranoia -of course an English gentleman wouldn't do such a thing.We won't mention why the rules were changed after Sporazene won the County Hurdle.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
How come when I mention a horse 12 hours later he makes the headlines:lol: Seems he may not get a run which never entered my head when i backed him...fortunately I just looked and I'm on NRNB
To be honest the Racing Post, aka the BS Rag, are just filling space there's no way Christian Williams hasn't been told by jungle drums by other trainers that there's won't run.
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Desert Orchid
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The case for CR isn't predicated on his form in the race last year [with NY]. It's predicated on the improvement he showed when taking in the CGC when possibly not 100% wound up.
Earlier this afternoon I had another look at last year's race. Now, I did back CR but my re-viewing the race was prompted by the idea that Vanillier may have been held up for too long on the day, as proffered by stats 'guru' [and ex-forumite] Paul Jones. Looking back, if any horse in the race deserves a mark-up for tactical positioning through the race it's CR for having raced just off the pace throughout*.
*Edit - in the context of his conclusion that recent winners have tended to come from further back than previously.
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I wouldn't imagine he wasn't fully wound up for what looked like a genuine Gold cup attempt and he came into it off a similar sort of break to what he came into the Ultima the year before just over 100 days off so i'd imagine it was a similar prep. I'm always weary of rating a race higher simply because of its prestige. On the face of it given what Fast or slow has done since the Ultima I'd have probably of said that was at least as good a performance beating him than a 13 length defeat in a Gold cup where he was held up and run through beaten horses which can always flatter a horse. I also think there is a case to be had that Corach apart, last years National just wasn't a very good race. I'm really not sure what to make of Vaniliier and it was a grand effort by Noble yeats from top weight. But the fact The big dog was only 8 lengths back despite being 11lb higher than when he could only manage 3rd in Welsh National. Born by the sea only 10 lengths back and he'd hasn't got within 10 lengths of the winner in any of his 6 starts since or 4 starts before the the race either. I'm probably just playing Devils advocate as i always like to pick holes in hot favourites sometimes with some sucess and other times I just get left with egg on my face. We'll just have to wait until Saturday to see which this is.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I feel it the same as if I lived there but got the opposite here...93 Fahrenheit just now and it's 8pm in the evening here.i'd pay for rain just now:lol:
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Seriously Dessie you'd have to be pretty naive to think Corach wasn't 100% at Cheltenham having won there in 2023.
The trainer will kmow how much time he takes to be let down and reach his peak again......no sense going for the gold cup otherwise
archie
Senior Jockey
Makes Lucinda naive then because she said that he would definitely come on for the run.
Desert Orchid
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Yes, I was sure I read that before the Gold Cup but wasn't 100% sure. I'd said before the GC I'd thought the aim there was 'win if you can but don't leave the Grand National behind here', or words to that effect.
Still, 4/1 and very deep ground would be concerning.
That said, I did use Tiger Roll to cover my main GN bets when he won for the second time at a short price but it gave me no pleasure seeing my main bet Rathvinden beaten into third.
I'm a big fan of Corach Rambler -he has exceeded all possible expectations over the last 18 months.It looked like he was coming to win the Gold Cup with 2 to jump to looking like he was going to pull up after the last.It isn't an exact science but I can't see how that hard a race would do a horse any favours -even a horse that has been trained to the minute.