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2025 Ultima Handicap Chase

Had a look now. Zanahiyr has plenty of back class + is still only 8. Has generally run well at the festival + will appreciate the decent ground. Taking into account the jocks claim, he's on the same mark, when he was a close 3rd in the Galway Plate. 50/1 seems big.
Frero Banbou looks overpriced at 66/1 judged on his Rehearsal chase win.
Those would be my two ew picks.
 
Jayhawk said:
Crebilly was beaten 44 lengths in this race yesterday. If the main target is the Festival Plate Handicap over two and a half miles where he finished second last year off 140 they've done a good job in ensuring that the handicap rating is no higher this time around. Previous two runs have been the two mile handicap chase at Windsor won by Matata with a season-opener over hurdles at Chepstow. Might be a spring horse like Langer Dan
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I was expecting Crebilly to run in Thursday's Plate Handicap, but he has been declared for the Ultima instead. Looks to be JP's only runner in this and he has Jagwar (7/1f) still in the Plate and the O'Neills have Springwell Bay in that one too. Crebilly doesn't look a strong stayer. Is he there just to give the owner a runner with the target later on, or have I missed something?
 
I decided a good while ago, probably when it reappeared earlier this season, that I wasn't going to back Crebilly until the festival and would back it in whatever handicap it ran in.

I haven't tabulated my figures yet but I will be backing it regardless. Sickness insurance at the very least.
 
Crebilly won't run unbacked by me, but I agree the jury is out in his stamina.

He finished well last year over the shorter trip, but then appeared not to get home at Aintree.

Drying ground is also a concern for me - I will be watching the stick readings closely.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Crebilly won't run unbacked by me, but I agree the jury is out in his stamina.
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When you consider how the likes of Corbetts Cross and Inodwayurthinkin (sp?) improved for stepping up in trip, I imagine they will have tested Crebilly somewhere away from the track to know exactly which race to target.
 
Ive narrowed this down to 2

Henry's Friend
Malina Girl

Both will like the better ground, the former looks to be coming to the boil at the right time, and Malina has course form
 
Ian_Davies said:
Lucinda Russell has form in this race.
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I've backed Whistle Stop Tour. I've had my eye on this since his chase debut. They sent him to Cheltenham as a range finder to see how he handled the course and the fences. Over an inadequate trip he acquitted himself well. I've had little bets on ante post and NRNB at 50's, 233's and 12's. I think he's a progressive sort who jumps well. The sire Saddex doesn't scream stayer, does it but connections see this as a national sort so I suppose they'll be confident of him staying this trip. I have a feeling there may be a lot more under the saddle with this one.
 
My favourite race, this ( especially after Chief Dan George won it a few years ago). I’ve backed Victtorino because I’ve been following It’s Ginos progeny ( Impose Toi is another one later in the week). Unfortunately seem to be very talented but either fragile or unlucky. I met It’s Ginos breeder in a pub in Newmarket a few years ago and she felt her horses achievements were underrated so I was pleased to see him producing some high profile NH horses.
 
moehat said:
My favourite race, this ( especially after Chief Dan George won it a few years ago). I’ve backed Victtorino because I’ve been following It’s Ginos progeny ( Impose Toi is another one later in the week). Unfortunately seem to be very talented but either fragile or unlucky. I met It’s Ginos breeder in a pub in Newmarket a few years ago and she felt her horses achievements were underrated so I was pleased to see him producing some high profile NH horses.
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It's probably my favourite race of the meeting after the big 3 which I don't usually bet in. I shall have a small amount on Victtorino ( currently 25/1 ) because I focus on Venetia Williams's horses in the valuable Saturday handicap chases through the winter. The downsides are that it was pulled up in this race a year ago, and it found the early pace in the Coral Cup ( formerly the Hennessy ) too strong before running on from well back to finish 3rd. Cheltenham's Old Course usually favours prominent runners.
I've picked Henry's Friend in the tipping competition, backed Famous Bridge last year (4th) , and Crebilly could do anything.

I saw your post on the Midlands Grand National, and I stroked Silver Patriarch's nose in his box in Arundel on one of John Dunlop's Open Days.
 
I'm being told there has been significant rainfall at Cheltenham today.

Given the stick reading this morning, I am now thinking there will be enough give in the ground to give Katate Dori better prospects of defying his hike in the weights for his impressive Kempton Park win, which followed 10mm of rain overnight at Sunbury.
 
I’ll be taking chances on 3 outsiders - hoping the rain/watering hasn’t made it soft going and that at least one will recapture former glories. Stay Away Fay perhaps the most likely at about 40/1. Straw Fan Jack (50/1) ran well at this meeting last year on unsuitably soft ground. Finished strongly then, having been prominent throughout until outpaced approaching last. Extra half mile this time may help, 6lb lower should too. He has no worthwhile form this season, but similar to last year. He is 10 now though. The 3rd horse is mentioned above - Guard Your Dreams at 66/1. Promising in his younger days but has not progressed. Just a hunch he might have a big run in him.
 
Jayhawk said:
It's probably my favourite race of the meeting after the big 3 which I don't usually bet in. I shall have a small amount on Victtorino ( currently 25/1 ) because I focus on Venetia Williams's horses in the valuable Saturday handicap chases through the winter. The downsides are that it was pulled up in this race a year ago, and it found the early pace in the Coral Cup ( formerly the Hennessy ) too strong before running on from well back to finish 3rd. Cheltenham's Old Course usually favours prominent runners.
I've picked Henry's Friend in the tipping competition, backed Famous Bridge last year (4th) , and Crebilly could do anything.

I saw your post on the Midlands Grand National, and I stroked Silver Patriarch's nose in his box in Arundel on one of John Dunlop's Open Days.
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These things stay with you, don’t they. I stood by Little Glenshee when she was in the winners enclosure at Kelso and told her that I’d met her dad and that he would have been very proud of her. It broke my heart when she died of pneumonia the other year. For horse mad people like me being able to get up close to our heroes is very important. I kissed Desert Orchid one day, too! I don’t think Victtorino has a chance to be honest but I’ve got to stick to my It’s Gino betting plan. Venetia did us proud at the festival last year and I hope she does well again.
 
I've just taken a screenshot of my table for the race and copied the comments underneath. (Couldn't get it all on to one meaningful screenshot.)

Comments and BO are as they were at the time of compilation on Sunday:

Screenshot (168).png



This is shaping up as a cracker of a race, chock full of dark horses and possible plot-jobs. The target figure on the scale looks like being blown to bits and I’m more inclined to focus on the ones I suspect might be hitting 175. In table order, they are the top six plus the likes of Sequestered and maybe Whistle Stop Tour since Fox appears to have opted for it over the higher (in the table) Myretown. I’ve already backed Stay Away Fay at long odds for this and for the National, for which running here will qualify it. I also plan to back Zanahiyr as it is a festival horse, twice placed in the Champion Hurdle, and might improve for this trip (by Nathaniel). I’ll spread some cash across all of them and hope one can win. The two that are under 10/1 dutch at a fraction over 4/1 which is okay.
 
I rarely touch Jonjo’s horses because I never have the faintest idea of what he’s up to. He’s got to be up to something with Crebilly, though, so I’ll take a chance that it’s not to get a few pounds knocked off by running him over the wrong distance! Broadway Boy was very lacklustre last time, but may have been feeling a hard run in the Coral Gold Cup where he finished second after pulling back from a bad jump four out. He’s had plenty of time since then. Might add in Katate Dori if Ian and his going stick say he has his ground :)
 
It was 5.9 at the last meeting (New Course). they called it Soft, I made it more like Good to Soft on times.

It was 6.1 (Old Course) at 8am yesterday. 3.5mm rain since - it won't be a bog by any means. but there will be enough give in my opinion to give those who need it what they want on this. the first day.
 
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